1,720,970 research outputs found
Good fences make good neighbors: the political economy of state fragmentation.
No full textWith independence referendums in Scotland and Catalonia, electoral support for regionalist parties in Belgium and Italy and surging separatist movements throughout Ukraine, regional instability seems well on its way to reclaim a prominent spot on the European political agenda. One novelty is that independence movements increasingly embed their case in the economic realm. The Scottish Fiscal Commission Working Group recently states that "independence is the key to fully unlocking Scotland's potential" while the Catalan Advisory Council for National Transition claims that tailoring economic policies to regional needs would be "an intangible benefit that would have a positive bearing on economic growth". In spite of these claims, quantitative research on the causes and consequences of state breakup remain scant. This project aims to make progress in both areas. First, it aims to validate existing economic theories by summarizing their insights in a mathematical model of state fragmentation to identify which European regions are most likely to secede according to contemporary economic thinking. Second, it aims to quantify the economic impact of state breakup by using a novel econometric technique to estimate how GDP per capita would have evolved in newly independent countries, in absence of separation. Comparing these estimates with the actual GDP per capita trajectories enables us to approximate economic payoffs of separation and analyze their primary underlying determinants.status: Publishe
De economische gevolgen van het uiteenvallen van landen
No full textHistorisch gezien is het proces van staatsvorming een verhaal van de consolidatie van grondstoffen, territorium en macht. Sinds de voorgaande eeuw wordt de wereld evenwel in toenemende mate gekenmerkt door een proces van staatsdesintegratie. Daardoor wint de vraag naar de economische gevolgen van het uiteenvallen van landen aan belang, zeker wanneer onafhankelijkheidsbewegingen hun pleidooi steeds vaker economisch motiveren[1]. Zo gaf de Financial Times[2] in de aanloop naar het recente Schotse onafhankelijkheidsreferendum mee dat
“Alex Salmond, Scotland’s first minister who is leading the campaign for independence, said […] that each household would receive an annual ‘independence bonus’ of 1,000 - within the next 15 years if the country votes to leave the UK. The UK government, in contrast, claimed that if Scots rejected independence each person would receive a ‘UK dividend’ of $4,000 ... for the next 20 years."
Ondanks de huidige relevantie bestaat er echter weinig onderzoek naar de economische gevolgen van staatsdesintegratie. Deze VIVES briefing belicht de centrale bevindingen van een recente VIVES studie[3] die per capita onafhankelijkheidsdividenden berekent voor een grote groep van nieuw-onafhankelijke landen in de periode 1950-2013.status: Publishe
Regionale (in)stabiliteit in Europa
No full textDeze briefing beschrijft de voornaamste inzichten van een recente VIVES-studie die een wiskundig model van staatsvorming afleidt uit de meest recente economische theorievorming ter zake, om de uitslagen van een onafhankelijkheidsreferendum gehouden in 264 Europese regio’s van 26 Europese landen te simuleren. De resultaten suggereren dat Catalonië, Vlaanderen en Baskenland vandaag de Europese regio’s zijn die het meest vatbaar zijn voor een afscheidingsstreven, op een zucht gevolgd door Schotland en het Bulgaarse Kardzhali. Denemarken, Hongarije en Slovenië komen naar voor als de landen die het meest robuust zijn voor een afscheiding.status: Publishe
Regional (In)Stability in Europe: a Quantitative Model of State Fragmentation
Get PDFDespite a rich theoretical literature on regional (in)stability, little is known about its empirical validity. This paper presents simulated experimental findings on spatial heterogeneity in regional (in)stability accross 264 regions belonging to 26 European countries. To do so, it develops a broad model of state fragmentation that reconciles the views of the dominant strands in the literature. In order to apply the model, a novel indicator of regional political distinctiveness is proposed, rooted in the discrepancy between regional and national electoral behavior. Calibrating our model to the current European situation, we find that Cataluña, Flanders and the Basque country are the regions currently most likely to break away. In line with these results, governments in all three regions have consistently vocalized demands for increased autonomy - or even secession - in recent years. Denmark, Hungary and Slovenia show up as the most secession-robust European countries
Schotse onafhankelijkheid? Een politiek-economische analyse
No full textIn deze bijdrage analyseren we de voornaamste onderliggende economische factoren binnen het Schotse onafhankelijkheidsdebat. We illustreren hoe de ontdekking van de olievelden voor de Schotse kust de economische kosten van een Schotse afscheiding compenseerde, doordat een onafhankelijk Schotland sindsdien kan terugvallen op deze belangrijke inkomstenbron. We tonen eveneens dat het Schotse stemgedrag nooit sterker afweek van de nationale trend. Dit suggereert dat de welvaartswinst van een Schotse afscheiding in termen van een beleid dichter bij de burger, nooit groter was dan vandaag.
Aan de hand van de meest recente economische theorievorming ter zake ontwikkelen we tenslotte een wiskundig model van natievorming, waarmee we de uitslagen van een onafhankelijkheidsreferendum gehouden in elke Britse regio simuleren. De resultaten daarvan bevestigen dat Schotland momenteel de meest instabiele regio van het Verenigd Koninkrijk (VK) is. Wanneer de welvaartskosten van een uniform Brits beleid in gelijke mate toenemen doorheen het VK is Schotland immers de eerste regio waar een afscheiding welvaartsverhogend is voor een meerderheid van haar burgers, op enige afstand gevolgd door Londen en het zuidwesten van Engeland. Een vergelijking met Spanje nuanceert deze resultaten in die zin dat zowel een Catalaanse als een Baskische afscheiding volgens dit model grofweg dubbel zo waarschijnlijk is als een Schotse.status: Publishe
Divided We Stand. A Fiscal Bargaining Model for Divided Countries
Get PDFI propose a multi-region fiscal bargaining model, where country border stability is determined by a trade-off between preference heterogeneity, income inequality and scale economies in the provision of public policy. I demonstrate how increasing preference heterogeneity can actually increase
border stability in this framework; by increasing political disagreements over government expenditures, it functions as a tax-reducing mechanism that brings equilibrium tax rates more in line with the fiscal preferences of the discontented and the wealthy. I provide empirical evidence for the model's main predictions in a large panel of countries over the past half-century. I also show its capacity to match some of the main fiscal and political evolutions in Belgium since its inception. The model provides a rationale for the observed border stability in highly politically heterogeneous and economically unequal countries, such as Belgium, which is difficult to explain in existing models.sponsorship: FWO|ASP/15status: Publishe
Regional (In)stability in Europe: a Quantitative Model of State Fragmentation
No full textAlthough there is a rich and burgeoning theoretical literature on regional (in)stability, its empirical implications remain unclear due to the scarcity of complementary quantitative research. This paper presents simulated experimental findings on spatial heterogeneity in secession proneness across 264 regions belonging to 26 European countries. To do so, it develops a broad model of state fragmentation that reconciles the views of the dominant strands in the literature. In order to apply the model, a novel indicator of regional political distinctiveness is proposed, rooted in the discrepancy between regional and national electoral behavior. Using this new indicator, we show that regional electoral heterogeneity has been on the rise in Europe in the past 40 years, offering an empirical rationale for the simultaneous rise in regionalism that is consistent with contemporary economic thinking on optimal country size. Calibrating our model to the current European situation, we find that Catalonia, Flanders and the Basque country are the regions currently predicted to be the most likely to break away. In line with these results, governments in all three regions have consistently vocalized demands for increased autonomy - or even secession - in recent years. Denmark, Hungary and Slovenia show up as the most secession-robust European countries.sponsorship: I would like to thank Erik Buyst, Klaus Desmet, Ruben Enikolopov, Joep Konings, Jo Reynaerts, Klaas Staal, Marvin Suesse, one anonymous referee and participants to the VIVES Research Seminar for valuable comments and suggestions on earlier versions of this paper and Sander Ramboer for his assistance in constructing maps. Financial support from the Research Foundation -Flanders (FWO) is gratefully acknowledged. (Research Foundation -Flanders (FWO))status: Published onlin
The Spatial Political Economy of Discontent
No full textThe recent rise and distinct geography of populism highlights the need for high resolution data on the economic and political landscapes and improved spatial political economy models that explain their interrelation. This paper shows that divergent development generates political externalities in lagging regions. To do so, it develops a dynamic spatial political economy model that integrates redistributive taxation and agglomerated economic growth in a standard economic geography framework. It finds that divergent development induces skill-biased labor mobility towards faster growing locations, simultaneously reducing their willingness to pay redistributive taxes and increasing their electoral influence on redistributive policy. To empirically validate and calibrate the model, the Spatial Political Economy in Europe Database (SPEED) is introduced, containing newly georeferenced electoral maps, political party classifications and gridded (per capita) GDP estimates for most European countries in the 17th release of the Constituency-Level Electoral Archive (CLEA). Instrumental variable regressions exploiting geographically-determined differences in economic growth potential confirm a strong constituency-level causal relation between underdevelopment and radical vote shares in the past two centuries. Counterfactual simulations suggests that policies that enhance labor mobility or income redistribution may both increase radical vote shares at least in the short run, as they risk fueling backlash in lagging and leading regions respectively
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
- …
