1,720,989 research outputs found
Geospatial Health: achievements, innovations, priorities
No full text: An expert panel discussion on achievements, current areas of rapid scientific progress, prospects, and critical gaps in geospatial health was organized as part of the 16thsymposium of the global network of public health and earth scientists dedicated to the development of geospatial health (GnosisGIS), held at the Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) of the University of Twente in The Netherlands in November 2023. The symposium consisted of a three-day scientific event that brought together an interdisciplinary group of researchers and health professionals from across the globe. The aim of the panel session was threefold: firstly, to reflect on the main achievements of the scientific discipline of geospatial health in the past decade; secondly, to identify key innovation areas where rapid scientific progress is currently made and thirdly, to identify critical gaps and associated research and education priorities to move the discipline forward. [...]
Understanding Population Movement Patterns after a Major Disaster: A case study of the effects of Hurricane Matthew in Haiti in 2016
No full textCall Detail Record (CDR) data enables the analysis of human behaviour on a large scale and the information that it contains can be promising. Not only does it allow us to track the movements of many individuals throughout time, it uncovers patterns in a persons decision making process that potentially tell us a lot about the effects of different interventions. The opportunity of finding new information on human behaviour has been noticed in several research fields, but every researcher eventually finds the same blockade: privacy. The data represents a detailed track of individuals and therefore these individuals must give approval (almost certainly lowering the amount of data that can be collected), or the data must be aggregated to the point that user anonymity is guaranteed. As a consequence of aggregated data, potentially important information could be lost. Especially in the case that both the dimension of location and time are aggregated, as these two could be considered as the essence of the CDR data. There are however techniques that increase the aggregation level, by de-aggregating the data. Naive Bayes classification has shown to be a functioning method within Machine Learning to de-aggregate a dataset that has incorporated information on at least one of the two essential dimensions; location in this case. By using the same variables to describe the administrative areas within the country that were used to describe the rows within the data, Naive Bayes classification can find the area that is most likely to fit the row. Matching the variables of the areas to the variables within the displacement dataset represents the backbone of the process, as the de-aggregation is driven by the closeness of datapoints between the two datasets.Engineering and Policy Analysi
Characterizing data ecosystems to support official statistics with open mapping data for reporting on sustainable development goals
No full textReporting on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is complex given the wide variety of governmental and NGO actors involved in development projects as well as the increased number of targets and indicators. However, data on the wide variety of indicators must be collected regularly, in a robust manner, comparable across but also within countries and at different administrative and disaggregated levels for adequate decision making to take place. Traditional census and household survey data is not enough. The increase in Small and Big Data streams have the potential to complement official statistics. The purpose of this research is to develop and evaluate a framework to characterize a data ecosystem in a developing country in its totality and to show how this can be used to identify data, outside the official statistics realm, that enriches the reporting on SDG indicators. Our method consisted of a literature study and an interpretative case study (two workshops with 60 and 35 participants and including two questionnaires, over 20 consultations and desk research). We focused on SDG 6.1.1. (Proportion of population using safely managed drinking water services) in rural Malawi. We propose a framework with five dimensions (actors, data supply, data infrastructure, data demand and data ecosystem governance). Results showed that many governmental and NGO actors are involved in water supply projects with different funding sources and little overall governance. There is a large variety of geospatial data sharing platforms and online accessible information management systems with however a low adoption due to limited internet connectivity and low data literacy. Lots of data is still not open. All this results in an immature data ecosystem. The characterization of the data ecosystem using the framework proves useful as it unveils gaps in data at geographical level and in terms of dimensionality (attributes per water point) as well as collaboration gaps. The data supply dimension of the framework allows identification of those datasets that have the right quality and lowest cost of data extraction to enrich official statistics. Overall, our analysis of the Malawian case study illustrated the complexities involved in achieving self-regulation through interaction, feedback and networked relationships. Additional complexities, typical for developing countries, include fragmentation, divide between governmental and non-governmental data activities, complex funding relationships and a data poor context.Information and Communication Technolog
Improving the reliability of an impact-based forecasting model: A case study for typhoons and landslides in the Philippines
No full textAnticipatory action requires models that can accurately and reliably predict the impact of natural hazards. However, impact forecasts are often underestimated when consecutive hazards are not considered. In the Bicol region in the Philippines, typhoons trigger 90% of landslides, causing a lot of fatalities and damage to infrastructure and agriculture. The lack of information on past landslide events has hampered the construction of landslide forecasting models. Currently, a machine learning (ML) impact-based forecasting (IBF) model for typhoons is operational in the Philippines. The model was developed by 510, an initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross. The model predicts impact due to the high wind speeds associated with typhoons and includes the possible impact due to landslides only via a static landslide susceptibility map. Hence, this study focused on extending the 510 typhoon model via hybrid modeling into a multi-hazard forecasting model for both typhoons and landslides to improve the forecast by considering impact from typhoon-induced landslides. The implementation of the hybrid multi-hazard impact-based forecasting model was tested on two typhoon events in the Bicol region. A hydrometeorological landslide IBF model was successfully created, even with the limited data on landslide occurrences and rainfall available. The newly established regional event duration threshold for Bicol was applied on the case study events with an increased impact boundary of 300 km compared to the typhoon impact boundary of 100 km. The results of the hybrid multi-hazard model showed an improved impact forecast -compared to the model considering solely static input of landslides, which underestimated impact- in both location extent of the impact forecast and in accuracy: the True Positives doubled, whereas the False Negatives reduced by half. The separate landslide IBF model as an extension of the existing ML typhoon model provided additional benefits as these models can be decoupled to optimize the performance and reliability of both. This study resulted in the prototype of an impact-based multi-hazard model for typhoons and landslides for the Philippines and demonstrated the importance of considering impact from consecutive hazards.Civil Engineering | Environmental Engineerin
Categorizing recipients of evouchers using best practises from marketing theories: Clustering and targeting vulnerable recipients of evouchers using a novel approach of consumer segmentation and machine learning; a case study of Sint Maarten
No full textCash and Voucher Assistance (CVA), a type of humanitarian aid consisting of giving money instead of products, is being used more frequently because of its effectiveness and efficiency in helping people in need (Cash Learning Partnership, 2020b). The debate on using CVA is currently focusing on improving the quality by better incorporating ’voices’ (needs and preferences) of recipients and by enhancing targeting. In targeting it is a major challenge to quickly identify the individuals and families with the biggest needs, given the lack of data (Aiken et al., 2021). Research on ways of measuring impact on and satisfaction of recipients combined with research on demographic and behavioural characteristics of recipients could lead to deeper insights in recipients of trackable CVA modalities (evouchers and ecash). This research uses the marketing literature on customer segmentation combined with machine learning algorithms to come up with an innovative new approach of categorizing recipients of evouchers, using the case of a Red Cross project on Sint Maarten. The main research question is: How can recipients of cash and voucher assistance be categorized using the field of consumer segmentation by using machine learning methods? The objective of this research is to come up with new methods to better understand recipients of CVA. Theories on customer segmentation pointed to the use of data-driven clustering methods to categorize consumers. Combined with a framework of recency, frequency and monetary aspects, recipients of evouchers could be categorized effectively. A required addition to this clustering method is to use a dimension reduction technique to avoid the negative consequence of the curse of dimensionality. Therefore, a two-step approach of dimension reduction and clustering has been applied in this research. It has been found in this research that a factor-cluster approach can lead to insightful clusters using geo-demographic data and behaviour data. Factor analysis has been used to reduce the dimensions while the k-prototype algorithm has been used to cluster into five distinct groups of recipients. The geo-demographic variables that were the most determining in characterizing distinct clusters consisted of: the age of the main beneficiary, the different household compositions and of a constructed factor ’big families and big receivers’. The most distinguishable variables on behaviour were: the number of supermarket visits (frequency), the time between the first voucher was received and the first transaction (recency) and the variables on the amount of money that was spent with the vouchers (monetary). To be able include the ’voice’ of recipients (needs and preferences), a connection between the registra tion data, behavioural data and survey data is needed. In this research only an exploratory connection could be established, due to the lack of a common identifier between the survey data and the other datasets. However, one crucial finding of this research is that it seems like the combination of these data sources can give meaningful insights in the needs, preferences and behaviour of households of Sint Maarten. With these insights specific clusters can be targeted for additional assistance, based on their needs. Recommendations for future studies include studying the validity of the found cluster results with different validation indices on cohesion and compactness, and by using simulations to determine the cluster stability. Before this factor-cluster approach can be deployed in CVA projects, more research on the treatment of limitations of this approach needs to be conducted. This is critical in communi cating the conditions and constraints of this model to humanitarian aid workers in the field. Another recommendation is to improve the design of surveys to measure the needs of recipients. For insightful factor-cluster results on the needs of recipients, survey data should be linked to geo-demographic and behaviour data. More research on including clusters in retargeting methods using feedback loops have a large potential in minimizing targeting errors and more effectively meeting the needs of recipients. With this research, the humanitarian sector can benefit from new ways to understand the needs of the most vulnerable in need. Decision-makers should build upon the feedback of recipients and move towards a new era of humanitarian assistance.Engineering and Policy Analysi
The role of data and information sharing when slow-onset natural disasters and conflict collide
No full textThe frequency and severity of natural disasters is increasing worldwide, leading to a growing number of people struggling to survive. While climate related natural disasters affect large portions of the world, communities who are already struggling to survive due to conflict, insecurity or poverty are hit the most. In fragile states, slowly unfolding natural disasters are getting more and more intertwined with conflict. In these areas, humanitarian and peacekeeping organizations have increasingly overlapping goals and scarce resources. Sharing information between humanitarian and peacekeeping organizations can improve the effectiveness and efficiency of both humanitarian response operations and peacekeeping missions, which may result in not only saving time and money but most importantly saving lives and reducing human suffering. Nevertheless, the process of information sharing between humanitarian and peacekeeping organizations is not common practice. This is a comprehensive study on the complexities of information sharing between humanitarian and peacekeeping organizations in fragile areas. It includes desk research, interviewing, modeling approaches and a qualitative case study on Mopti, Mali where the Red Cross Movement is actively fighting food insecurity and Dutch peacekeepers are contributing to the UN peacekeeping mission called MINUSMA.Master project reportEngineering and Policy Analysi
Characterizing the spatio-temporal dynamics of social vulnerability in Burkina Faso: A comparison of Principal Component Analysis with Equal Weighting
No full textGlobal climate change has results in a higher frequency of extreme disaster events and is therefore a serious challenge in disaster impact management. Disaster risk is composed of several components, such as vulnerability, susceptibility, exposure and the probability of occurence and intensity of a hazard. Vulnerability has become a topical issue due to the major role it plays in disaster risk reduction strategies. Hence, this research focuses on the development of a method to understand the dynamics of social vulnerability. The study area comprises Burkina Faso. Therefore the following research question was developed: 'how to calculate a social vulnerability index for Burkina Faso that characterizes the spatial and temporal dynamics of social vulnerability"?"The results showed that despite drawbacks, principal component analysis provides good insight in de internal and externaly dynamics of social vulnerability. However, large differences are found in the ranking of the social vulnerability score of communes when other methods are used. Hence, it is deemed important to develop more research in the semantic meaning of social vulnerability an thus understand better which mathicmatical approach is the most suitable. This research has found the highest social vulnerability in communes prone to conflict which are hosting many IDPs in the North, Centre-Nord, Sahel and East of the country. A statistically significant increase of social vulnerability was found from 2015 - 2017 in Boucle du Mouhoun, the Nord and the Centre-Nord.https://github.com/LotteSMJ/Thesis_EPA Repository link Github repository that contains the codeEngineering and Policy Analysi
Assessing the forecast skill of agricultural drought forecast from satellite-derived products in the Lower Shire River Basin
No full textIn 2008 the Red Cross Red Crescent (RCRC) started with Forecast-based Financing pilots to improve existing Early-Warning Early Action systems. Forecast-based financing is a new methodology to prepare, deliver and respond in a more effective and efficient manner, based on hazard forecasts. Actions are triggered when a forecast exceeds a danger level in a vulnerable intervention area. Forecast-based financing consists of several implementation steps, of which the first three aim at impact-based forecasting. Therefore, In this study we investigate how forecast skill of agricultural drought forecasts can be achieved. More specifically, the aim is to identify the contribution of machine learning and satellite-derived products in early warning early action systems improving the forecast skill of agricultural drought forecasts. We explore this through a machine learning model for a case-study area of the Lower Shire River Basin in Malawi. Several experiments with different sets of predictors and predictands are conducted to test which data adds to the skill and at what spatial detail. As predictors, the following agro-climatic indices are used: cumulative precipitation, soil moisture anomalies,mland surface temperature anomalies, El Niño Southern Oscillation in July and four different dry spell categories within the growing season (0-2 days dry spell, 3-4 day dry spell, 5-10 day dry spell and larger than 10 day dry spell). As drought predictand, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the vegetation optical depth(VOD) in March are used, the latter obtained from satellite data company VanderSat. The final set of predictors and predictands is narrowed down based on which data is available and with which quality (timeliness, reliability, accuracy). Initial results, show higher accuracy and weighted accuracy values for the models including soil moisture data compared to the ones without soil moisture, expect for the last month in the growing season, where it give opposite results. The outcome of the model can support humanitarian organisations to increase the lead time necessary to act upon a drought trigger and reduce the impact of such event.IPACE-MalawiNERC-SHEARWater Management | Hydrolog
Information diffusion in complex emergencies: A model-based evaluation of information sharing strategies
No full textIn an emergency, humanitarian organisations share information to prevent redundant data collection and avoid gaps and overlap in the relief activities that they undertake. An analysis of hygiene kit distribution in the Bangladesh-Myanmar displacement crisis and consultation of both literature and humanitarian professionals led to the construction of a model on information diffusion in complex emergencies. This model proved to be able to evaluate strategies that have a level of complexity that could not be apprehended by existing models. Experimentation with this model leads to the conclusion that a locally sourced team, with an outward focused organisation that produces near real-time information products, is most effective in diffusing information.Master project reportEngineering and Policy Analysi
Linking Drought Forecast Information to Smallholder Farmer's Agricultural Strategies and Local Knowledge in Southern Malawi
No full textMost people of Malawi are dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods. This leaves them vulnerable to drought and changing rainfall patterns due to climate change. Over time, farmers have adopted local strategies and knowledge that help reducing the overall vulnerability to climate variability shocks. One other option to increase the resilience of rainfed farmers to drought, is providing forecast information on the upcoming rainfall season. Forecast information has the potential to inform farmers in their decisions surrounding agricultural strategies. However, significant challenges remain in the provision of forecast information. Often, the forecast information is not tailored to farmers, resulting in limited uptake of forecast information into their agricultural decision-making. Therefore, this study explores whether drought forecast information can be linked to existing farmers strategies and local knowledge on predicting future rainfall patterns. During a period of three months in Malawi, participatory research approaches are used to create an understanding of what requirements drought forecast information should meet to effectively inform farmers in their decision-making. Consequently, a sequential threshold model was established that relates annually monitored meteorological indicators before the rainy season, to the occurrence of dry conditions during the season. Dry conditions were expressed in the drought indicators that farmers require for their agricultural decision-making. Additionally, using interviews among stakeholders and a visualisation of the current information flow, further insights on the current drought information system were developed. Although farmers have their own strategies and timing of decision-making, this research has generalized some of the opinions and strategies to develop the ‘requirements’ which a contextualized forecast should meet. In August farmers require a prediction of the onset of the rainy season, typically starting mid-November. In addition, an update on the timing of the onset of rains is required in beginning of November. An overall indication of the ‘dryness’ of the rainy season is required in September. Here, ‘dryness’ is characterized by the number of dry spells, a composite ‘drought index’ of associated rainfall variables by the farmers. The forecast should be on a scale that is locally relevant (EPA level). This research consequently established a forecasting model, based on meteorological variables from local knowledge which can complement the forecast variables from the DCCMS. The results of forecast verification show that meteorological indicators based on local knowledge have a predictive value for forecasting drought indicators. Subsequently, skill analysis of forecasting incorporating all the above dimensions shows that the accuracy of the forecast differs per location with an increased skill to the Southern locations. In addition, it is also location dependent whether the contribution of wind, temperature or ENSO indicators gives the most predictive value. The results show that a combination of all indicators have the best predictive value. In addition, the results show that local knowledge indicators have an increased predictive value in forecasting the locally relevant critical events in comparison to the currently used ENSO-related indicators by the DCCMS. Additional research is needed to further analyse certain aspects of this research, such as research on the robustness of the model used. Research on the risk farmers are willing to take in their respective decisions could act as another requirement the forecast skill should meet. This highlights the importance of having continuous feedback from the farmers, since farmers may experience adverse impacts from wrongly informed decisions. Despite these limitations, it is argued that the inclusion of local knowledge in the current drought information system of Malawi may improve the provision of forecast information for farmers and shows that it is possible to capture local knowledge in a technical approach. The findings have relevant implications for other stakeholders, such as humanitarian and meteorological organisations, that are implementing drought-risk reduction approaches and climate services.Water Managemen
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