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Futures of the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities in the European Union in 2035. Scenarios and policy implications
Policy-makers – working on various domains, notably regulations, home affairs, security, science,
technology, and innovation (STI) policies – need to pay close attention to possible new ways and
methods for the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities. This report is aimed at
assisting these policy-makers by presenting four possible futures (scenarios) on the
interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities and considering their implications.
These scenarios assume that the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities – just
as most other types of crime – cannot be fully eradicated. There are two competing groups of
actors whose capacities, activities, and efficiency largely determine the possibilities for, and
repercussions of, the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities: criminal actors
and law enforcement agencies (LEAs). The scenarios, therefore, are shaped by two main
dimensions: i) whether LEAs are well-resourced, strong, and effective or not, and ii) whether large
criminal organisations or small-scale ones are the dominant criminal actors. Hence, the four
scenarios consider various types of ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors that influence actors to commit – or
not – k criminal economic activities; the main types of these activities; features of regulations;
research, technological development, and innovation activities by the criminal actors vs LEAs; as
well as the activities, capabilities, and resources of LEAs
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
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