25,907 research outputs found
Turchin P. Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies
No full textAbstract: Warfare is commonly viewed as a driving force of the process of aggregation of initially independent villages into larger and more complex political units that started several thousand years ago and quickly lead to the appearance of chiefdoms, states, and empires. Here we build on extensions and generalizations of Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies Sergey Gavrilets University of Tennessee David G. Anderson University of Tennessee Peter Turchin University of Connecticut Warfare is commonly viewed as a driving force of the process of aggregation of initially independent villages into larger and more complex political units that started several thousand years ago and quickly lead to the appearance of chiefdoms, states, and empires. Here we build on extensions and generalizations o
A Dynamic Analysis of American Socio-Political History. A Review of Ages of Discord: A Structural Demographic Analysis of American History by Peter Turchin (Beresta Books, 2016)
No full textA Review of Ages of Discord: A Structural Demographic Analysis of American History by Peter Turchin (Beresta Books, 2016
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Editors’ Note: New Publication Policies at Cliodynamics
No full textAuthor(s): Hoyer, Daniel; Reddish, Jenny; Turchin, Pete
Author Peter FitzSimons speaking at the National Library of Australia, Canberra, 13 November 2012 /
No full textTitle from acquisitions documentation.; Part of the collection: Portraits of author Peter FitzSimons speaking at the National Library of Australia, Canberra, 13 November 2012.; Acquired in digital format; access copy available online.; Mode of access: Online.; Photographed by a staff member of the National Library of Australia
The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade: A retrospective assessment
No full textThis article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010-2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe Turchin P. 2018. This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010. Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected forward in time the Political Stress Indicator, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability. Ortmans et al. Turchin P. 2010 conducted a similar structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom. Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and several major Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions. We find that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010-2020 decade in all of these countries
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A review essay on End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter Turchin (Penguin Random House 2023)
No full textIn End Times, Peter Turchin takes us on three journeys: One is his personal history of the discovery of patterns in history, which form the basis for his development of cliodyamics; a second is his tracing of the primary pattern, namely how elite overproduction and popular immiseration have repeatedly led to state breakdowns across history; and third is the history of the United States, reprising and updating his findings in Age of Discord (Turchin 2017). The journeys converge on a rather distressing endpoint, however: Turchin has found that the pattern of state breakdown that recurs across history is now unfolding in the United States; and in 75% of the times this pattern has been seen in past societies, it led to some form of convulsive state breakdown, including revolution or civil war
Moral Good, the Beatific Vision, and God’s Kingdom Writings by Germain Grisez and Peter Ryan, S.J.. Edited by Peter J. Weigel
No full textFor close to half a century, the work of Germain Grisez has been highly influential, and his writings continue to receive considerable attention from philosophers and theologians of diverse viewpoints. His co-author for this work is the professor and noted moral theologian Fr. Peter Ryan, S.J., currently the executive director of the Secretariat of Doctrine and Canonical Affairs of the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB). These two eminent scholars explore fundamental questions about Christian eschatology, moral theory, the purpose of human life, and the promise of human fulfilment. The authors examine Christian teaching on the final destiny of persons, investigating the meaning of God's kingdom, the hope of the beatific vision, and the centrality of moral goodness and divine grace in one's final end. This work is an ideal source for students, scholars, ministers and lay persons interested in basic questions of Christian theology, the philosophy of religion, ethical theory, and Catholic doctrin
Murder on the mountain: author talk with Peter J. Wosh
No full textAuthor talk by Peter J. Wosh on May 5th, 2022, on his book, "Murder on the Mountain: crime, passion, and punishment in gilded age New Jersey.
The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010-2020 decade: A retrospective assessment.
No full textThis article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010-2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe Turchin P. 2018. This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010. Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected forward in time the Political Stress Indicator, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability. Ortmans et al. Turchin P. 2010 conducted a similar structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom. Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and several major Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions. We find that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010-2020 decade in all of these countries
Peter Turchin, <i>Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth</i> (Chaplin, CT: Beresta Books, 2015), 274 pp. ISBN: 978-0-99613-953-3. 9.95 ePub; Kindle.
No full textPeter Turchin, Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth (Chaplin, CT: Beresta Books, 2015), 274 pp. ISBN: 978-0-99613-953-3. 9.95 ePub; Kindle.</jats:p
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