1,721,260 research outputs found
Energy poverty alleviation and climate change mitigation: Is there a trade off?
Full text linkEnergy poverty alleviation has become an important political issue in the most recent years. Several initiatives and policies have been proposed to deal with poor access to modern sources of energy in many developing countries. Given the large number of people lacking basic energy services, an important question is whether providing universal access to modern energy could significantly increase CO2 emissions. This paper provides one of the few formal assessments of this problem by means of a simple but robust model of current and future energy consumption. The model allows mapping energy consumption globally for different classes of energy use, quantifying current and future imbalances in the distribution of energy consumption. Our results indicate that an energy poverty eradication policy to be met by 2030 would increase global final energy consumption by about 7% (or 19EJ). This is the same quantity of energy which would be added between now and 2030 by individuals with energy consumption above current European standards. The additional energy infrastructure needed to eradicate energy poverty would produce 16-131 GtCO2 over the 21st century and contribute at most 0.1C of additional warming
Direct Air Carbon Capture and Sequestration: How It Works and How It Could Contribute to Climate-Change Mitigation
Full text linkOwing to the small quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be emitted before we exceed the 1.5°C–2°C target of the Paris Agreement on climate change, we are increasingly likely to require ways of removing significant CO2 from the atmosphere. In addition to the biological options considered to date such as afforestation and bioenergy with CO2 capture, direct air carbon capture and sequestration (DACCS) is emerging as a potentially important synthetic CO2 removal technology. Here, we explain how DACCS works, focusing on two major processes that have been developed into large-scale pilot plants. We discuss cost estimates and operational energy requirements, as well as ecological and ethical considerations. We highlight the role of DACCS in the low-carbon transition by discussing its benefits, while also noting potential trade-offs and uncertainties that deserve further investigation
Climate Engineering and Abatement: A ‘flat’ Relationship Under Uncertainty
Full text linkThe potential of geoengineering as an alternative or complementary option to mitigation and adaptation has received increased interest in recent years. The scientific assessment of geoengineering is driven to a large extent by assumptions about its effectiveness, costs, and impacts, all of which are highly uncertain. This has led to a polarizing debate. This paper evaluates the role of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) on the optimal abatement path, focusing on the uncertainty about the effectiveness of SRM and the interaction with uncertain climate change response. Using standard economic models of dynamic decision theory under uncertainty, we show that abatement is decreasing in the probability of success of SRM, but that this relation is concave and thus that significant abatement reductions are optimal only if SRM is very likely to be effective. The results are confirmed even when considering positive correlation structures between the effectiveness of geoengineering and the magnitude of climate change. Using a stochastic version of an Integrated Assessment Model, the results are found to be robust for a wide range of parameters specification
The economic analysis of climate policy: technology, innovation, forestry and uncertainty
No full textLa tesi analizza una politica climatica dal punto di vista economica, concentrandosi sul ruolo delle tecnologie, dell'innovazione e delle foreste, con una particolare attenzione alla modellizzazione dell'incertezza.This thesis provides a comprehensive economic evaluation of long term global warming mitigation policies, by focusing on the role of technologies and innovation, forestry ecosystem, and of uncertainty
Uncertain R&D, backstop technology and GHGs stabilization
Full text linkThis paper analyses optimal investments in innovation when dealing with a stringent climate target and with the uncertain effectiveness of R&D
Global sensitivity and domain‐selective testing for functional‐valued responses: An application to climate economy models
Full text linkUnderstanding the dynamics and evolution of climate change and associated uncertainties is key for designing robust policy actions. Computer models are key tools in this scientific effort, which have now reached a high level of sophistication and complexity. Model auditing is needed in order to better understand their results, and to deal with the fact that such models are increasingly opaque with respect to their inner workings. Current techniques such as Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) are limited to dealing either with multivariate outputs, stochastic ones, or finite-change inputs. This limits their applicability to time-varying variables such as future pathways of greenhouse gases. To provide additional semantics in the analysis of a model ensemble, we provide an extension of GSA methodologies tackling the case of stochastic functional outputs with finite change inputs. To deal with finite change inputs and functional outputs, we propose an extension of currently available GSA methodologies while we deal with the stochastic part by introducing a novel, domain-selective inferential technique for sensitivity indices. Our method is explored via a simulation study that shows its robustness and efficacy in detecting sensitivity patterns. We apply it to real-world data, where its capabilities can provide to practitioners and policymakers additional information about the time dynamics of sensitivity patterns, as well as information about robustness
Inequality repercussions of financing negative emissions
No full textNegative emissions technologies are attracting the interest of investors in the race to make them effective and profitable. When deployed at scale, they will be financed through public funds, reducing the fiscal space for a socially inclusive climate transition. Moreover, if the private sector owns negative emissions technologies, potentially large profits would disproportionally benefit investors and equity holders. Here we quantify the inequality repercussions of direct air capture of CO2 in a 1.5 °C scenario, using a regional integrated assessment model that features within-country income heterogeneity. We find that, under a single carbon market, financing negative emissions technologies could double the increase in income inequality of climate policy. The effects are highest around the time of net zero and in scenarios with carbon budget overshoot. We identify the drivers of the inequality increase and discuss policy provisions to mitigate the equity concerns of CO2 removal strategies
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