1,721,028 research outputs found
Scientific and Non-scientific challenges for operational earthquake forecasting
No full textSeismic hazard is characterized by significant variations on a time scale from days to few years. Forecasting the evolution of these variations has the potential to expand the capability to manage the seismic risk beyond the definition of a traditional seismic building code. This is the goal of the so-called operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), which comprises procedures for gathering and disseminating authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. Here we describe the current OEF status, with a specific emphasis on Italy, and we discuss some of the biggest scientific and nonscientific challenges encountered so far. They can be summarized in a few basic concepts: i) scientific misconceptions of what a probabilistic forecast means; ii) violation of the hazard/risk separation principle; iii) common thought that laymen cannot understand probabilities; iv) objective lacking of good-practices in communicating low-probability high-impact events
High-Definition Mapping of the Gutenberg–Richter b-Value and Its Relevance: A Case Study in Italy
No full textSome thoughts on declustering in probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis
No full textIn this paper, we discuss in depth, one of the basic procedures that stands behind probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA), that is, the declustering of the seismicity rates. First, we explore the technical, scientific, and practical motivations that led to introducing the declustering of seismicity rates. Then, we show that for PSHA, declustering is essential only to minimize a spatial distortion of the earthquake occurrence process, but, conversely, it may lead to significant underestimation of the true seismic hazard. This underestimation precludes the possibility to test meaningfully PSHA against real observations, and it may lead to underestimate the seismic risk, whenever seismic-hazard maps are used for risk assessment. Finally, we propose a methodology that can be used in PSHA to avoid this potential bias
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Il paternalismo "mite" de nudge: su alcuni aspetti della regolazione post-liberale
No full textIl saggio verte sugli aspetti paternalistici della regolazione di epoca post-liberale che provengono dalla scienze empiriche di stampo comportamentale, dove prevalgono il cosiddetto paternalismo asimmetrico o soft e non coercitivo (o dei mezzi) che introducono potenziali forme di manipolazione del comportamento. L'idea è che l'autonomia del soggetto liberale di fronte alle norme lasci spazio alla cosiddetta compliance. Ne consegue la necessità di riflettere sul rapporto tra regolazione comportamentale del nudge e il diritto inteso come legge o norma
Con i dosaggi esatti degli esperti. Per un’analitica del potere tecno-disciplinare
No full textUn metodo di regolazione non pubblica, ma di origine privata alquanto diffuso in epoca post-liberale è costituito dalle norme tecniche. Concentrandosi su un particolare, e attualmente molto diffuso, genere di norme tecniche, i cosiddetti “indicatori”, l’articolo mostra come questi dispieghino un peculiare tipo di operatività normativa: non sanzionano una condotta del soggetto a cui si rivolgono, ma sono esse stesse il modello del comportamento che tale soggetto deve adottare per potere essere conforme ad esse. Gli indicatori infatti – questa la tesi dell’articolo – altro non sono che sofisticati dispositivi disciplinari che svolgono una funzione di normalizzazione, cioè di allineamento dei soggetti con i fini del sistema di potere (e sapere) dominante
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