1,541 research outputs found
Choice of predictor variables as a source of uncertainty in continental-scale species distribution modelling under climate change: a case study
No full textAim: species distribution modelling is commonly used to guide future conservation policies in the light of potential climate change. However, arbitrary decisions during the model-building process can affect predictions and contribute to uncertainty about where suitable climate space will exist. For many species, the key climatic factors limiting distributions are unknown. This paper assesses the uncertainty generated by using different climate predictor variable sets for modelling the impacts of climate change.Location: Europe, 10° W to 50° E and 30° N to 60° N.Methods: using 1453 presence pixels at 30 arcsec resolution for the great bustard (Otis tarda), predictions of future distribution were made based on two emissions scenarios, three general climate models and 26 sets of predictor variables. Twenty-six current models were created, and 156 for both 2050 and 2080. Map comparison techniques were used to compare predictions in terms of the quantity and the location of presences (map comparison kappa, MCK) and using a range change index (RCI). Generalized linear models (GLMs) were used to partition explained deviance in MCK and RCI among sources of uncertainty.Results: the 26 different variable sets achieved high values of AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and yet introduced substantial variation into maps of current distribution. Differences between maps were even greater when distributions were projected into the future. Some 64–78% of the variation between future maps was attributable to choice of predictor variable set alone. Choice of general climate model and emissions scenario contributed a maximum of 15% variation and their order of importance differed for MCK and RCI.Main conclusions: generalized variable sets produce an unmanageable level of uncertainty in species distribution models which cannot be ignored. The use of sound ecological theory and statistical methods to check predictor variables can reduce this uncertainty, but our knowledge of species may be too limited to make more than arbitrary choices. When all sources of modelling uncertainty are considered together, it is doubtful whether ensemble methods offer an adequate solution. Future studies should explicitly acknowledge uncertainty due to arbitrary choices in the model-building process and develop ways to convey the results to decision-maker
Prioritising conservation actions for biodiversity: Lessening the impact from habitat fragmentation and climate change
No full textThe interacting impacts of habitat fragmentation and climate change present a substantial threat for biodiversity, constituting a ‘deadly anthropogenic cocktail’. A range of conservation actions has been proposed to allow biodiversity to respond to those environmental changes. However, determining the relative effectiveness of these actions has been hampered by incomplete evidence. Empirical studies have provided important insights to inform conservation, but the challenge of considering multiple actions at large spatial and temporal scales is considerable. We adopt an individual-based modelling approach to qualitatively assess the effectiveness of alternative conservation actions in facilitating range expansion and patch occupancy for eight virtual species. We test actions to: (i) improve the quality of existing habitat patches, (ii) increase the permeability of the surrounding matrix, (iii) restore degraded habitat, (iv) create new habitat patches to form stepping-stones or (v) create new habitat to enlarge existing habitat patches. These actions are systematically applied to six real landscapes of the UK, which differ in their degree of habitat fragmentation and availability. Creating new habitat close to existing patches typically provides the strongest benefits for both range expansion and patch occupancy across species and landscapes. However, some landscapes may be so degraded that even under unrealistically high levels of management action, species' performances cannot be rescued. We identify that it is possible to develop a triage of conservation actions at the landscape, species and investment level, thereby providing timely evidence to inform action on the ground to lessen the hangover from the deadly anthropogenic cocktail.</p
A multi-species modelling approach to examine the impact of alternative climate change adaptation strategies on range shifting ability in a fragmented landscape
No full textAn individual-based model of animal dispersal and population dynamics was used to test the effects of different climate change adaptation strategies on species range shifting ability, namely the improvement of existing habitat, restoration of low quality habitat and creation of new habitat. These strategies were implemented on a landscape typical of fragmentation in the United Kingdom using spatial rules to differentiate between the allocation of strategies adjacent to or away from existing habitat patches. The total area being managed in the landscape was set at realistic levels based on recent habitat management trends. Eight species were parameterised to broadly represent different stage structure, population densities and modes of dispersal. Simulations were initialised with the species occupying 20% of the landscape and run for 100 years. As would be expected for a range of real taxa, range shifting abilities were dramatically different. This translated into large differences in their responses to the adaptation strategies. With conservative (0.5%) estimates of the area prescribed for climate change adaptation, few species display noticeable improvements in their range shifting, demonstrating the need for greater investment in future adaptation. With a larger (1%) prescribed area, greater range shifting improvements were found, although results were still species-specific. It was found that increasing the size of small existing habitat patches was the best way to promote range shifting, and that the creation of new stepping stone features, whilst beneficial to some species, did not have such broad effect across different species
Coupled land use and ecological models reveal emergence and feedbacks in socio-ecological systems
No full textAcknowledgements: This work was supported by an EPSRC Doctoral Training Centre grant (EP/G03690X/1). Supplementary material (Appendix ECOG‐04039 at ). Appendix 1.Peer reviewe
Data from: Coupled land use and ecological models reveal emergence and feedbacks in socio‐ecological systems
No full textAll_ResultSummaryData file containing all simulation results. Column "Group" represents the group classification for each value, used to subset data for different analyses. "SimID" uniquely identifies each simulation's parameterisation (represented by the parameters: "Coupled", "NoPolliYield", "Rmax", "CarryingCapacity", "DispersalType").,Understanding the dynamics of socio‐ecological systems is crucial to the development of environmentally sustainable practices. Models of social or ecological sub‐systems have greatly enhanced such understanding, but at the risk of obscuring important feedbacks and emergent effects. Integrated modelling approaches have the potential to address this shortcoming by explicitly representing linked socio‐ecological dynamics. We developed a socio‐ecological system model by coupling an existing agent‐based model of land‐use dynamics and an individual‐based model of demography and dispersal. A hypothetical case‐study was established to simulate the interaction of crops and their pollinators in a changing agricultural landscape, initialised from a spatially random distribution of natural assets. The bi‐directional coupled model predicted larger changes in crop yield and pollinator populations than a unidirectional uncoupled version. The spatial properties of the system also differed, the coupled version revealing the emergence of spatial land‐use clusters that neither supported nor required pollinators. These findings suggest that important dynamics may be missed by uncoupled modelling approaches, but that these can be captured through the combination of currently‐available, compatible model frameworks. Such model integrations are required to further fundamental understanding of socio‐ecological dynamics and thus improve management of socio‐ecological systems.</span
Para obrazów retabulum ołtarzowego ze scenami legend o św. Mikołaju w zbiorach Muzeum Książąt Czartoryskich w Krakowie
No full textThe collection of The Princes Czartoryski Museum in Krakow includes a pair of wings form a winged retable depicting hagiographical threads connected with the person of St. Nicholas of Bari. The artwork was brought to the museum from Rzepiennik Biskupi, a village situated near Krosno. The wings constitute an example of late Gothic tabular painting, manufactured in provincial workshops of Little Poland in the 1st half of the 16th century.The scenes Salvaging the castaways from the shipwreck and Whipping of the statue of St. Nicholas depicted on the aforementioned wings refer to the miracle-working activity of St. Nicholas. Most probably the author drew inspiration from the text of The Golden Legend by Jacob de Voragine – the text, which was very popular from the 13th century and which was frequently a source of hagiographical inspirations.The paintings, most probably deriving from the nonexistent retable of St. Nicholas, in terms of stylistics can be assigned to the circle of the Workshop of the Master of Triptych from Klimkówka, whose work is connected with Krosno and its neighbourhood. Andrzej, working in Krosno in the 1st half of the 16th century, is a painter consociated with this workshop. His works typify, among others, influences of the South-German painting and engraving, which he encountered most probably in the Krakow community.W kolekcji Muzeum Książąt Czartoryskich w Krakowie znajduje się para skrzydeł retabulum ołtarzowego przedstawiających wątki hagiograficzne związane ze św. Mikołajem z Bari. Do zbiorów trafiły z miejscowości Rzepiennik Biskupi, położonej w okolicach Krosna. Stanowią przykład późnogotyckiego malarstwa tablicowego powstającego w prowincjonalnych warsztatach małopolskich w pierwszej połowie XVI wieku.Sceny Ocalenie rozbitków na tonącym statku oraz Biczowanie posągu św. Mikołaja ukazane na owych skrzydłach, odnoszą się do cudotwórczej działalności św. Mikołaja. Ich pierwowzorem był zapewne tekst Złotej Legendy Jakuba de Voragine, cieszący się od XIII wieku wielką popularnością i stanowiący źródło częstych inspiracji ikonograficznych.Obrazy, pochodzące najprawdopodobniej z nieistniejącego retabulum św. Mikołaja, pod względem stylowym przyporządkować można kręgowi Warsztatu Mistrza Tryptyku z Klimkówki, którego działalność związana jest z Krosnem i okolicami. Twórcą łączonym z tą pracownią jest malarz Andrzej działający w Krośnie w pierwszej połowie XVI wieku. Jego dorobek charakteryzują wpływy między innymi malarstwa i grafiki południowoniemieckiej, z którymi najprawdopodobniej zetknął się w środowisku krakowskim
Saint Nicholas of Myra’s Pedagogia Pauperum
No full textRecognizing the growing educational challenges that often appear insurmountable even when following the best pedagogical guidance, the author raises questions concerning—among other things—the reasons behind the continuing relevance of Saint Nicholas’s ideas. In the absence of more in-depth research, the author makes no definitive claims. However, he notes that Saint Nicholas’s pedagogy appears effective in many cases despite being founded on personal example rather than educational frameworks or theories. Drawing selectively on literature, popular piety, and folk tradition, the article explores the case of Saint Nicholas to illustrate the personal qualities that a modern educator should possess and the directions that contemporary pedagogy should follow.Pedagogia pauperum św. Mikołaja z Myry
Autor artykułu, dostrzegając narastające problemy wychowawcze w wielu przypadkach wydające się nie do pokonania przy zastosowaniu nawet najlepszych wskazań pedagogicznych, stawia pytania między innymi o to, gdzie tkwi siła ponadczasowości wychowawczej św. Mikołaja. Nie przeprowadzając wnikliwszych badań, autor niczego nie twierdzi, ale jest faktem, że w wielu przypadkach pedagogia św. Mikołaja wydaje się skuteczna, chociaż nie opiera się na założeniach czy teoriach wychowawczych, a bardziej na przykładzie osobowym. Artykuł wybiórczo – w oparciu o literaturę, kult i tradycję ludową – próbuje ukazać na podstawie przypadku św. Mikołaja cechy osobowe współczesnego wychowawcy i kierunki pedagogii
O pojęciu towaru w polskiej krytyce literackiej po 1989 roku
No full textPierwsza część artykułu jest próbą przeniesienia na grunt rozważań nad historią polskiej krytyki literackiej koncepcji Nicholasa Browna przedstawionej w książce Autonomy. The Social Ontology of Art Under Capitalism. Z kolei w drugiej części, inspirowanej projektem konstelacji krytycznych, na przykładzie heterogenicznych wypowiedzi z lat 90. XX wieku autor śledzi przejawy charakterystycznej dla późnokapitalistycznych społeczeństw ideologii estetycznej, w myśl której dzieło literackie jest takim samym towarem, jak każdy inny.In the first part of the article, the author attempts to employ concepts discussed by Nicholas Brown in Autonomy. The Social Ontology of Art Under Capitalism in the analysis of the history of Polish literary criticism. In the second part, inspired by the project of critical constellations, the author traces the manifestations of the aesthetic ideology characteristic of late capitalist societies, according to which a literary work is a commodity like any other. He analyzes heterogeneous critical writings from the 1990s
Four Hymns to Saint Nicholas From the Collection Catholic Devotional Hymns for Church and Home Use (Pelplin, 1871) in Terms of Semantic and Selected Musical Issues
No full textW niniejszym artykule autor przybliża cztery pieśni do świętego Mikołaja, pochodzące z opublikowanego w 1871 roku w Pelplinie Zbioru pieśni nabożnych katolickich do użytku kościelnego i domowego. Pieśni nie posiadają tytułów. Ich incipity są następujące: pieśń I Niech będzie Bóg nasz pochwalony w świętym Mikołaju, pieśń II Krzyknijmy wszyscy, zgodnemi głosami, pieśń III Mikołaj Biskup przebłogosławiony, pieśń IV Kochany Bogu święty Mikołaju. Warstwa semantyczna pieśni wyrasta z nurtu tzw. religijności potrydenckiej, która wyrażała się między innymi w postrzeganiu istniejącego zła, choroby czy innego nieszczęścia jako kary Bożej za grzechy ludzi. Z drugiej jednak strony ukazuje postawę, która świadczy o tym, że to właśnie Bóg może dokonać cudownej interwencji, dlatego człowiek wzywa orędownictwa świętego. Z kolei w warstwie muzycznej pieśni posiadają prostą budowę i nieskomplikowaną linię melodyczną. Te przymioty niewątpliwie pomagały w modlitwie do ulubionego świętego.In this article, the author describes four hymns to Saint Nicholas originating from the collection Catholic Devotional Hymns for Church and Home Use, published in 1871 in Pelplin. The hymns are untitled. Their incipits are as follows: hymn I Let our God Be Praised in Saint Nicholas, hymn II Let us All Shout with One Voice, hymn III Saint Nicholas the Blessed Bishop, hymn IV Beloved God and Saint Nicholas. The semantic layer of the hymn grows out of the trend of so-called post-Tridentine devotion, which was expressed, i.a., in the perception that evil, illness or other misfortune was God’s punishment for people’s sins. On the other hand, it shows an attitude that illustrates that God can make a wonderful intervention, and for that reason the human calls on the intercession of the saint. In the musical layer, in turn, the hymns have a simple structure and an uncomplicated melodic line. These qualities undoubtedly helped in the prayer to the beloved saint
Organy Kościoła św. Mikołaja w Elblągu od schyłku XVIII do 1945 roku
No full textThe St. Nicholas parish church in Elbląg, currently the Elbląg diocese cathedral, is a unique building in every respect. Until today, it remains the most important element of the town and reflects its turbulent history. Since its erection, the church was an important centre of liturgical music. The paper discusses the changes in the organ instruments of the largest Elbląg church after the fire of 26 April 1777 until 1945. Their story has remained largely unknown until today. It is particularly surprising that no one analysed the issue of the instrument’s history in St. Nicholas’ church ever since it became a cathedral. The author of this paper intends to contribute to reviewing the history of the grand renovation of the church of St. Nicholas after the fire of 1777
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