6,837 research outputs found
Spatial methods for modelling species distributions
No full textSpecies distribution modelling methods are used for a variety of applications including: to assess current patterns of biodiversity, to make predictions about the impacts of environmental and climate change, and to assist in conservation planning. However, important factors are often neglected both in the pre-processing of data (e.g. ignoring sampling bias), and in the construction of models (e.g. ignoring ecological processes). In terms of the pre-processing of data, recent improvements in distance sampling methods are used to convert count data to abundance estimates, utilising both distance and habitat data from a previously conducted bird count survey. Biotic interactions are studied using MaxEnt and pairs of virtual species; a novel iterative method is demonstrated, using each species prediction as a subsequent variable for the partner species. Population dynamics and dispersal are studied using RangeShifter, a recently developed individual-based model. A number of climate change adaptation actions are applied to a section of UK landscape data, and the range shifting ability of a set of focal species is measured. Many previous studies have predicted climate change impacts on species; some have started to incorporate simple measures of dispersal ability. This work demonstrates the importance of considering both dispersal and population dynamics when predicting the future distributions of species and assessing their ability to track climate change. Finally, dynamic feedbacks between species and their environment are studied by coupling RangeShifter with CRAFTY, a recently developed agent-based model of land-use dynamics. Socio-ecological system dynamics are crucial in determining species distributions, but have rarely been studied as a truly coupled system. The coupled model presented here is the first of its kind, modelling both animals and land-use agents at an individual level. A case study is presented, demonstrating the feedback mechanisms that exist between pollinators and farms that rely on them, and the potential risk posed by agricultural intensification
Choice of predictor variables as a source of uncertainty in continental-scale species distribution modelling under climate change: a case study
No full textAim: species distribution modelling is commonly used to guide future conservation policies in the light of potential climate change. However, arbitrary decisions during the model-building process can affect predictions and contribute to uncertainty about where suitable climate space will exist. For many species, the key climatic factors limiting distributions are unknown. This paper assesses the uncertainty generated by using different climate predictor variable sets for modelling the impacts of climate change.Location: Europe, 10° W to 50° E and 30° N to 60° N.Methods: using 1453 presence pixels at 30 arcsec resolution for the great bustard (Otis tarda), predictions of future distribution were made based on two emissions scenarios, three general climate models and 26 sets of predictor variables. Twenty-six current models were created, and 156 for both 2050 and 2080. Map comparison techniques were used to compare predictions in terms of the quantity and the location of presences (map comparison kappa, MCK) and using a range change index (RCI). Generalized linear models (GLMs) were used to partition explained deviance in MCK and RCI among sources of uncertainty.Results: the 26 different variable sets achieved high values of AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and yet introduced substantial variation into maps of current distribution. Differences between maps were even greater when distributions were projected into the future. Some 64–78% of the variation between future maps was attributable to choice of predictor variable set alone. Choice of general climate model and emissions scenario contributed a maximum of 15% variation and their order of importance differed for MCK and RCI.Main conclusions: generalized variable sets produce an unmanageable level of uncertainty in species distribution models which cannot be ignored. The use of sound ecological theory and statistical methods to check predictor variables can reduce this uncertainty, but our knowledge of species may be too limited to make more than arbitrary choices. When all sources of modelling uncertainty are considered together, it is doubtful whether ensemble methods offer an adequate solution. Future studies should explicitly acknowledge uncertainty due to arbitrary choices in the model-building process and develop ways to convey the results to decision-maker
Interview with Nicholas Christopher, author of Somewhere in the Night: Film Noir and the American City
No full textInterview with Nicholas Christopher, author of Somewhere in the Night: Film Noir and the American Cit
Resurrecting the Author
No full textPresentation of Nicholas Wolterstorff\u27s Paper Resurrecting the Author with time after for questions beginning at 18:00
Heritability and Linkage Analysis of Appendicitis Utilizing Age at Onset
No full textAppendicitis usually afflicts the young, but there is a large tail in the distribution of onset age. The genetics of this disease are still not well understood. A heritability analysis and genome wide linkage analysis of a large twin dataset was undertaken. Treating age of onset of appendicitis as a censored survival trait revealed a heritability of 0.21, and found evidence of linkage to Chromosome 1p37.3. Author(s): Christopher Oldmeadow 1 * | Kerrie Mengersen 2 | Nicholas Martin 3 | David L. Duffy
Coupled land use and ecological models reveal emergence and feedbacks in socio-ecological systems
No full textAcknowledgements: This work was supported by an EPSRC Doctoral Training Centre grant (EP/G03690X/1). Supplementary material (Appendix ECOG‐04039 at ). Appendix 1.Peer reviewe
Prioritising conservation actions for biodiversity: Lessening the impact from habitat fragmentation and climate change
No full textThe interacting impacts of habitat fragmentation and climate change present a substantial threat for biodiversity, constituting a ‘deadly anthropogenic cocktail’. A range of conservation actions has been proposed to allow biodiversity to respond to those environmental changes. However, determining the relative effectiveness of these actions has been hampered by incomplete evidence. Empirical studies have provided important insights to inform conservation, but the challenge of considering multiple actions at large spatial and temporal scales is considerable. We adopt an individual-based modelling approach to qualitatively assess the effectiveness of alternative conservation actions in facilitating range expansion and patch occupancy for eight virtual species. We test actions to: (i) improve the quality of existing habitat patches, (ii) increase the permeability of the surrounding matrix, (iii) restore degraded habitat, (iv) create new habitat patches to form stepping-stones or (v) create new habitat to enlarge existing habitat patches. These actions are systematically applied to six real landscapes of the UK, which differ in their degree of habitat fragmentation and availability. Creating new habitat close to existing patches typically provides the strongest benefits for both range expansion and patch occupancy across species and landscapes. However, some landscapes may be so degraded that even under unrealistically high levels of management action, species' performances cannot be rescued. We identify that it is possible to develop a triage of conservation actions at the landscape, species and investment level, thereby providing timely evidence to inform action on the ground to lessen the hangover from the deadly anthropogenic cocktail.</p
Nicholas de Monchaux: Local Code / Real Estates
No full textNicholas de Monchaux is an architect and urbanist whose work explores the intersections between nature, technology, and the city. He is the author of Spacesuit: Fashioning Apollo (MIT Press, 2011), an architectural history of the Apollo 11 spacesuit. He is Assistant Professor of Architecture and Urban Design at UC Berkeley. The work of his design studio has been exhibited widely and is currently being featured in the US Pavillion of the 13th Venice Biennale
Nicholas Meyer: 10-31-1979
No full textNicholas Meyer is a screenwriter, producer, director, and author, and a graduate of the University of Iowa. He is the author of the screenplay the Seven Per Cent Solution and co-author of The Black Orchid. He begins the interview by discussing his professional career as both a film writer/director and a novelist. He then talks about how he began writing novels, and discusses the research that goes into his novels. Meyer continues by discussing his movie Time After Time and concludes the interview by listing prominent teachers and writing influences.Archived web contentSUNY BrockportWriters Forum Video
Nicholas Meyer: 10-31-1979
No full textNicholas Meyer is a screenwriter, producer, director, and author, and a graduate of the University of Iowa. He is the author of the screenplay the Seven Per Cent Solution and co-author of The Black Orchid. He begins the interview by discussing his professional career as both a film writer/director and a novelist. He then talks about how he began writing novels, and discusses the research that goes into his novels. Meyer continues by discussing his movie Time After Time and concludes the interview by listing prominent teachers and writing influences.https://digitalcommons.brockport.edu/writers_videos/1022/thumbnail.jp
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