1,721,001 research outputs found
Study of The Seirs Model on The Spread of Tuberculosis in Medan
No full textThis study aims to analyze the SEIRS (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) model of tuberculosis transmission by adding several assumptions to the rate of individuals transitioning from susceptible to latent (B), determine the equilibrium point and the basic reproduction number (Ro), and perform numerical simulations to analyze the results of the SEIRS model. The assumption of this SEIRS model is that there is a possibility that the population recovered from tuberculosis is susceptible to reinfection. This model consists of four compartments: the susceptible population, the exposed population, the infected population, and the recovered population. The data used are from the Medan City Health Office regarding the number of tuberculosis patients in 2022. Based on the results of the SEIRS model simulation, the smallest basic reproduction number (Ro) is obtained with B=0, resulting in Ro=3,9×10−7, and the largest basic reproduction number (Ro) is obtained with B=1, resulting in 7,9×10−6. Therefore, it can be concluded from these conditions that Ro<1, which means that tuberculosis is not an epidemic in the city of Medan and is decreasing from one generation to the next.59 PagesSkripsi Sarjan
Hubungan Antara Jenis Pekerjaan dan Tingkat Pendidikan Orang Tua terhadap Prestasi Anak di SMA Yayasan Pendidikan Raksana Medan dengan Menggunakan Metode Chi-Kuadrat
Full text linkEducation is a universal activity and is a necessity of life in human life which is a human right that must be protected and a necessity for humans both as individual beings and as social beings. have the skills and knowledge, physical and spiritual health. This study aims to find out how the actual effect of the type of work and the level of education of parents on children's achievement, especially at YAYASAN PENDIDIKAN RAKSANA MEDAN High School. The relationship between the two is less close, this is based on comparing the value of C and the value of Cmax. The results meet Davis's (1971) requirements, namely 0.21 and 0.28 which are between 0.10 and 0.29. The conclusions above are not absolute conclusions because they are only influenced by two factors, namely the type of work and parental education.73 HalamanKertas Karya Diplom
Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Seirs Model on Covid-19 Spread with Vaccination Parameters
No full textCOVID-19 is a disease that has become a worldwide pandemic. This research aims to construct a mathematical model on the spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia, analyze the stability of the model, and perform numerical simulations. In this research, the SEIRS model was constructed for the spread of COVID-19. This model was constructed by considering the effect of vaccination parameters. The model consists of Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected (I), and Recovered (R) subpopulations with the assumption of decreased immunity. The model has two equilibrium points, namely the disease-free equilibrium point (E0) and the endemic equilibrium point (E1). The basic reproduction number (R0) is obtained through the Next Generation matrix method which is formed from the model at point E0. The stability analysis of the model was carried out by considering the Jacobian matrix of the model. At point E0, the model will be locally asymptotically stable if the R0≤1. Meanwhile, at point E1 the model will be locally asymptotically stable if the R0>1. To perform numerical simulation, the 5th order Runge-Kutta method is used to provide a numerical solution for the model. From the simulations that have been carried out, it can be seen that vaccination can slow down the spread of COVID-19 and accelerate the population to enter the Recovered class.75 PagesSkripsi Sarjan
Analisis Sistem Antrian Pasien Rawat Jalan BPJS Pada Bagian Loket Pendaftaran Rumah Sakit Sundari Medan
No full textQueuing is one of the problems that is often experienced by a line of people who have to wait their turn to receive services as happened at the Sundari Hospital in Medan. The queuing process start from the arrival of the patients to take the queue number, wait to be served, starts being served until it is finished being served and leaves the system. This study aims to find an effective solution in minimizing waiting time using the queuing theory method by adding counter facilities at the registration section so as to achieve an optimal queuing system. Data collection was carried out for 10 days with an observation time of 07.30-12.00 WIB at the registration counter. From the results of the distribution test using the Chi Square test, it was found that the patients arrival had a Poisson distribution and the service time got an exponential distribution. The queuing model used at the registration counter is Multi Channel Single Phase (M /M /3) : (FIFO/∞/∞). Based on the research and calculations obtained, the queuing system at Sundari Hospital Medan with 3 counters has not been efficient seen from the average waiting time of patients in the queue for 16,51 minutes with an average waiting time of 24,09 minutes in the system so that it can cause patients waiting time to be served. Therefore, with the addition of 1 counter facility, it can reduce the waiting time of the queue to 2,34 minutes while the average waiting time in the system becomes 9,92 minutes, meaning that by adding service facilities it can reduce the length of patient waiting time and also optimize the queue cost which is calculated to produce that with the addition of the counter the cost of waiting is less than the previous cost so that it can be said to be optimal.95 halamanSkripsi Sarjan
Clustering the Quality of Education in North Sumatra Using Fuzzy C-Means with Google Colaboratory
No full textEducation is a vital aspect of regional development, closely related to social, economic, and cultural progress. In Indonesia, especially in North Sumatra, there is a significant disparity in educational quality that requires serious attention. Evaluating educational quality is essential to identify which sectors need more focus.This research aims to cluster the districts/cities in North Sumatra based on their educational quality using the Fuzzy C-Means method and to evaluate the effectiveness of this model in the clustering process.The data used in this research includes the Gross Enrollment Ratio (APK), Net Enrollment Ratio (APM), the percentage of residents who have graduated from high school (APT), the average length of schooling (RLS), expected years of schooling (HLS), and the Human Development Index (IPM). The analysis was conducted using the Fuzzy C-Means method with the assistance of the Google Colaboratory platform. The research results show the clustering of areas in North Sumatra based on varying educational quality. The Fuzzy C-Means method proved effective in clustering educational data, yielding reliable results for further analysis. Fuzzy C-Means with Google Colaboratory provides clear clustering results regarding the quality of education in North Sumatra. This research can serve as a basis for the government to prioritize areas that need more attention in efforts to improve educational quality.82 PagesKertas Karya Diplom
Analysis of Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) Stock Price Forecast using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
No full textThe uncertainty in stock price movements makes it difficult for investors to make the right investment decisions. One of the leading stocks in Indonesia is Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), whose price movements are very dynamic and influenced by various factors. This research aims to build a BRI stock price forecasting model using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) time series statistical approach, as well as evaluate how accurate the model is in providing predictions. The data used is the daily closing share price of BRI during the period from January 2 to May 20, 2025. The analysis method includes stationarity testing using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, model identification based on ACF and PACF patterns, parameter estimation through Maximum Likelihood Estimation, and model accuracy evaluation using MAE, RMSE, and MAPE.
The results of the analysis showed that the ARIMA model (0,1,2) was the best model with a MAPE value of 2.16%, which was included in the category of being very accurate. The forecast was made for the next 30 days, and the results showed that BRI's share price tends to be stable with a gradual upward trend, without extreme fluctuations. These findings suggest that the ARIMA model is effective in capturing short-term patterns in stocks with relatively consistent movements. Nonetheless, this model has its limitations because it relies only on historical price data without considering fundamental or macroeconomic factors. Therefore, for future research, it is recommended to consider external variables so that the forecasting results become more comprehensive. Practically, the results of this research can be used by investors in developing short-term investment strategies based on historical data and statistical analysis.69 PagesKertas Karya Diplom
Pengaruh Suhu Udara, Curah Hujan, dan Luas Lahan terhadap Produksi Kopi di Kabupaten Deli Serdang dengan Menggunakan Metode Analisis Jalur
No full textThis research was conducted to see the effect of air temperature, rainfall, and land area on coffee production in Deli Serdang Regency. The data analysis technique used in this study is path analysis. The exogenous variables used are air temperature, rainfall, and land area. And the endogenous variable used is coffee production. The data used is secondary data from 2012-2022 taken online from the official BPS website. Techniques and analysis with path analysis were carried out to see how much influence air temperature, rainfall, and land area have on coffee production. The path analysis method produces a path equation Y = 0.036X_1 + 0.177X_2 + 0.855X_3 + 0.427 meaning that as air temperature and rainfall increase, coffee production will decrease. Meanwhile, the area of land with coffee production is inversely proportional, meaning that the more land area used, the higher the amount of coffee production. Air temperature, rainfall, and land area contribute together to coffee production, namely 81.8% and 18.2% influenced by other variables outside the path model.78 HalamanKertas Karya Diplom
Penerapan Fuzzy Time Series Lee dalam Meramalkan Nilai Tukar Subsektor Peternakan di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2022
No full textFuzzy time series (FTS) Lee is a new concept of the FTS method which is a development of the Song and Chissom, Cheng, and Chen models in predicting a value in the future. The purpose of this study was to obtain the forecast value of the Exchange Rate of Farmers Subsectors Farm (ERFSF) in North Sumatra from June to August 2022 and to obtain the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The stages of this research start from forecasting using order 1 Lee FTS and continue by using Lee 2 order FTS. The results of NTPT forecasting in North Sumatra obtained using order 1 in June are 102.2 with a MAPE value of 0.353592%. The results of forecasting NTPT in North Sumatra obtained using order 2 from June to August, respectively, are 102.2, 102.6, and 103 with a MAPE value of85 HalamanKertas Karya Diplom
Analisis Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Kemiskinan di Sumatera Utara Menggunakan Analisis Jalur
No full textPoverty is the inability of society to meet the needs of life. North Sumatra Province is one of the regions in Indonesia that is also facing poverty problems. This research was conducted to determine the factors that affect the poverty rate in North Sumatra. The data used is secondary data through BPS from 2013 to 2022. The research method used is path analysis. Path analysis is one of the statistical techniques used to determine causal relationships between variables. The study produced the path equation Z=-0.077X_1-0.809X_2-0.176Y+0.552, so it can be concluded that the population, gross regional domestic product, and unemployment together affect the poverty rate by 69.5% %.69 HalamanKertas Karya Diplom
Identifikasi Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk di Sumatera Utara Menggunakan Statistical Quality Control
No full textPenelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh laju pertumbuhan penduduk yang tinggi. Laju pertumbuhan penduduk adalah perubahan jumlah penduduk di suatu wilayah tertentu setiap tahunnya. Laju pertumbuhan yang tinggi, mulai disadari banyak pihak dapat menjadi masalah besar dihadapi dunia, terutama di negara yang berkembang. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganilisis laju pertumbuhan penduduk di Sumatera Utara. Apakah masih berada dalam batas pengendalian atau tidak. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode statistical quality control. Menggunakan peta kendali X dan R dan menggunakan jenis data sekunder. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data laju pertumbuhan penduduk per sepuluh tahun dari tahun 1980 hingga 2019. Dengan sampel penelitian sebanyak 33
Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara. Hasil dari penelitian didapat nilai rata-rata x yang merupakan garis tengah atau sentral untuk peta kendali X adalah 0,75. Nilai Batas Kendali Atas (BKA) 1,97 dan nilai Batas Kendali Bawah (BKB) adalah -0,47. Nilai rata-rata R yang merupakan garis tengah atau sentral untuk peta kendali R adalah 1,68. Nilai Batas Kendali Atas (BKA) adalah 3,83 dan nilai Batas Kendali Bawah (BKB) adalah 0. Dari hasil penelitian ini didapat laju pertumbuhan penduduk di Sumatera Utara belum berada dalam standar pengendalian.This research is motivated by a high population growth rate. The rate of population growth is the change in the number of people in a certain area each year. High growth rate, began to realize many parties can be a big problem facing the world, especially in developing countries. This study aims to analyze the population growth rate in North Sumatra. If is it still within the control limit or not. The method which used in this research is statistical quality control method. Using control map X and R and use secondary data types. The data used in this study is the data of population growth rate per ten year from 1980 to 2019. With sample of 33 regencies/cities in North Sumatra. The result of this study obtained an average value of x which is the central line for the control map X is 0,75. Upper control limit (BKA) value is 1,97 and lower control limit (BKB) value is -0,47. The average value of R which is the central line for the control map R is 1,68. Upper Control Limit (BKA) value is 3,83 and Lower Control Limit (BKB) value is 0. From the results of this study it is find that the population growth rate in North Sumatra is not yet within the control standard.54 HalamanKertas Karya Diplom
- …
