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Analisis Perkembangan dan Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor gula di Indonesia
Full text linkIndonesia is an agricultural country with marginal land, and most of the
population earns a livelihood as farmers because Indonesia's soil fertility is
considered high in agriculture. As an agricultural country, the Indonesian
economy is supported by several sectors, including food crops, plantations,
forestry, livestock, and fisheries. Based on the Ministry of Agriculturedata during
the 2013-2018 period, the accumulated additional value of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) in the agricultural sector reached Rp. 1.375 trillion and an
increase of 47% compared to 2013 income for the Indonesian economy from
agriculture. Seeing theimportance of sugar for meeting the needs of society and
industry, sugar consumption has experienced a significant increase. At the same
time, its production remains in a low position and has even decreased.
This study aims to a) analyze the development of sugarcane plantation
area, population, sugar consumption and national sugar production, b) analyze
the development of sugar imports and their country of origin over the next 10
years and c) analyze what factors influence the amount of imports. sugar. The
analytical method used to analyze developments using a forecasting model is the
Trend Method (Long-Term Motion) using the Least Squares Method (the least
squares method) through the excel program tool in addition, using Simple Linear
Regression analysis to see the factors that affect imports. Sugar.
The results show that a) The development of sugarcane plantation area
and sugar production is decreasing while the population and sugar consumption
are increasing in the period 2002 to 2019, b) Forecasting sugar imports in 2020-
2029 has increased by 4% annually and the State Thailand occupies the first
level as the highest sugar exporter in Indonesia, and c) significantly sugar
production has no significant effect on sugar imports, prob value. of 0.1653 while
the significance level is 0.05 (0.1653 > 0.05), sugar consumption has a positive effect on sugar imports, the value of prob. of 0.0328 while the significance level is
0.05 (0.0328 <0.05), while the price of sugar has no significant effect on sugar
imports, the value of prob. of 0.2715 while the significance level is 0.05 (0.2715 >
0.05).
Keywords: Sugar Imports, Influencing Factors, and Trend Analysis
Forecasting the export value of indonesian tuna, skipjack, and mackerel tuna using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
Full text linkThis study aims to build a statistically valid forecasting model for the export value of Tuna, Skipjack, and Mackerel Tuna in Indonesia, considering that the ability to project future export performance is crucial for the strategic planning of both government and industry. Using annual time-series data from the period 2005 to 2023 sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (KKP), this study applies the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Box-Jenkins methodology. The entire analysis process, from stationary testing to forecasting, was conducted using Minitab 22 software. After a series of rigorous identification, estimation, and diagnostic checking stages, the ARIMA (0,1,2) model was identified as the best fit. This selection was based on its superiority across various criteria: having the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values, the best out-of-sample forecasting accuracy (MAPE = 13.15%), a significant MA(2) parameter (p-value = 0.020), and valid residuals based on the Ljung-Box test (p-value = 0.663). The forecast for the 2024-2026 period shows a sustained upward trend in export value, with a projection of reaching USD 991.65 million by 2026. These findings provide a quantitative basis for the government in setting export targets and for the industry in planning investments, particularly in the development of value-added products to meet global market demand
Analisis Perkembangan dan Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Impor Gula di Indonesia
Full text linkIndonesia adalah negara agraris yang memiliki tanah subur dan sebagian besar penduduknya bermata pencaharian sebagai petani, karena kesuburan tanah tersebut Indonesia dianggap berpotensi tinggi dalam bidang pertanian. Sebagai negara agraris, perekonomian negara Indonesia ditunjang oleh beberapa sektor antara lain sektor tanaman pangan, perkebunan, kehutanan, perternakan dan perikanan. Berdasarkan data Kementerian Pertanian selama periode 2013-2018 akumulasi tambahan nilai Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) sektor pertanian mencapai Rp. 1.375 Triliun dan meningkat sebesar 47% dibandingkan dengan tahun 2013 pemasukan bagi perekonomian negara Indonesia dari bidang pertanian. Melihat pentingnya gula bagi pemenuhan kebutuhan masyarakat dan industri, membuat konsumsi gula yang mengalami peningkatan yang cukup besar sedangkan produksinya tetap pada posisi yang rendah bahkan mengalami penurunan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perkembangan luasan areal tanaman tebu, jumlah penduduk, konsumsi gula per kapita dan produksi gula nasional. Metode analisis yang digunakan untuk menganalisis perkembangan impor gula dengan menggunakan model peramalan yang digunakan adalah Metode Trend (Gerak Jangka Panjang) dengan menggunakan Least Squares Method (metode kuadrat terkecil) melalui alat bantu program excel yang menggunakan Regresi Linier Sederhana. Perkembangan luas areal tamanan tebu dan produksi gula semakin menurun sedangkan jumlah penduduk dan konsumsi gula semakin meningkat pada periode tahun 2002 hingga 2019
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
No full textWe have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
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