1,721,426 research outputs found
La ilusión científica en la macroeconomía empírica
Get PDFMuchos macroeconomistas y la mayoría de los econometristas creen y enseñan a sus estudiantes que 1) el trabajo empírico en macroeconomía debe dedicarse a identificar los ‘parámetros estructurales básicos’ que representan las preferencias y la tecnología; 2) el mejor trabajo empírico en macroeconomía prueba formalmente las hipótesis esenciales derivadas rigurosamente de la teoría económica; 3) las técnicas estadísticas sofisticadas pueden jugar un papel importante para determinar la causación en sistemas con muchas variables independientes. Estas creencias constituyen el núcleo de los que yo llamo la ilusión científica en la macroeconomía empírica
Wealthier is healthier
Get PDFWith cross-country, time series data on health (infant and child mortality, and life expectancy) and per capita income, the authors estimate the effect of income on health. They use instrumental variables estimation to identify the effect of income on health that is structural and causal, isolated from reverse causation (healthier workers are more productive and hence wealthier) or incidental association (some other factor may cause both better health and greater wealth). The long-run income elasticity of infant and child mortality in developing countries lies between 0.2 and 0.4. Using those estimates, they calculate that in 1990 alone, more than half a million child deaths in the developing world could be attributed to poor economic performance in the 1980s.Health Economics&Finance,Inequality,Economic Theory&Research,Governance Indicators,Health Monitoring&Evaluation
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
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Real Bubbles, Synthetic Traders: AI-Agent-Based Simulations of the Speculative Market
No full textWith the rise of agentic AI comes a powerful opportunity to rethink how we model
economic complexity and nonlinear systems. I create an extensible, AI-agent-based
market simulation sandbox for exploring behavioral finance questions and speculative
dynamics. This paper presents the first AI-agent-based simulation of a speculative
stock market built on a general-purpose agentic framework—a high-quality, consumerfacing software development kit (SDK) rather than a bespoke, special-purpose scaffold
around a LLM using chat completions API features. The framework is fully customizable, enabling researchers to design and run experiments by defining trader archetypes,
injecting news shocks, testing different market microstructures, and observing interactions—including those via a simulated social platform, enabling rich experimentation
with speculation, herding, pricing dynamics, and financial stability. Empirical simulation results echo findings from prior literature while introducing new nuance. Across
markets with varying share of trader archetypes, results show that trading volume
negatively predicts future returns when irrational agents dominate, suggesting that
high-volume events can signal upcoming price reversals. In contrast, even though results show that rationalists reduce momentum overall, when they do trade in high
volume, it’s often with conviction, which can support trend continuation (i.e., real
momentum). These findings point to a possibly more nuanced relationship between
volume and returns — one distinctly modulated by the rationality of market participants. Notably, this does not imply that rational markets exhibit more volume
overall (simply because prices may appear more supported); rather, it reflects a shift
in the informational character of volume—from noise to signal—as market composition
increases in rational agents. Lastly, volume and rationality in my simulations are uncorrelated, suggesting their separate influences on price dynamics are not confounded
— but rather, arise endogenously from the system’s own emergent complexity. This
study demonstrates the viability of AI-agent-based simulations and their potential to
generate nuanced insight into enduring financial economics questions.Applied Mathematic
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Finance and its reform : beyond laissez-faire
Get PDFThat the financial sector should be liberalized was the orthodox view in the mid-1970s, during a pendulum swing toward reliance on the free market. In the early 1980s, the pendulum swung back to the left, based partly on evidence - especially from Latin America - that overly rapid reform had real costs, and partly on an increased appreciation of financial market failure. Blind adherence to free market principles was no longer appropriate. Now a counter-counterrevolution is in sight, with some swing back toward the view that the market makes a mess of it, but the government makes it even worse. The authors agree that market-oriented financial systems appear to do a better job than systems with extensive government involvement, but contend that the assumption that perfect competition will solve all problems in finance - especially in banking - can be dangerous. Information problems, implicit or explicit government guarantees associated with the payments system make banks unique. Governments implicitly recognize banking's uniqueness - few allow just anyone to enter banking - but public pronouncements and observers'recommendations often favor a move to more competition. Perfect competition, however, is optimal under the assumption, among others, of no government guarantee. In fact, most governments differ only in how explicit they are about their deposit insurance schemes. The financial reforms most likely to succeed are those that give banks an incentive to engage in safe and sound banking. When excessive competition is allowed, the charter value of banking diminishes to the point that it is no longer profitable for bankers to behave prudently. A consideration of finance's role, and a look at how reforming economies have fared, suggest also that gradual reform is often to be preferred in this domain. Deregulation of credit markets and interest rates can be counterproductive in unstable macroeconomic conditions and when banks are unsophisticated or have weak balance sheets. And changes in the charter value may evolve only slowly after reform. Faster progress and greater efforts should be made, however, in bank supervision and regulation and in institutional development, including accounting, auditing, legal and judicial reform, and training (of bankers and other finance professionals). In sum, many economies would benefit from less government intervention in financial markets, but the prescription should not be abrupt or total government withdrawal from the financial sector. Rather than intervening heavily in credit allocation decisions, governments should focus on doing what only they can do: providing an enabling environment for the private financial and nonfinancial sectors, and ensuring that financial operations are safe and sound.Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring
Investing in all the people
Get PDFRecent research has convinced the author that once all the benefits are recognized, investment in the education of girls may be the highest return of investment available in the developing world. The author stresses five major points: (1) higher death rates are symptomatic of the more general pattern of female deprivation in the developing world; (2) underinvestment in girls is an economic problem resulting from a vicious cycle caused by distorted incentives; (3) educated women choose to have fewer children and can provide more for those they do have; (4) the social benefits alone of increased female education are more than sufficient to cover its costs; and (5) priorities should be to reduce the cost of schooling for girls and make special efforts to accommodate parent's practical needs. Major initiatives to increase female education can transform society over time. If more girls had gone to school a generation ago, millions of infant deaths could have been averted each year, and tens of millions of families could have been healthier and happier.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Primary Education,Gender and Education,Adolescent Health,Agricultural Knowledge&Information Systems
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