1,721,457 research outputs found
The historic evolution of coastal flood exposure in the UK
No full textCoastal flooding is a serious and growing threat, with 200 to 300 million people estimated to live within the coastal floodplain worldwide today. This exposure is not static and it is increasing globally due to rising populations and sea level rise. While there have been scenario-based investigations of future exposure, there is a knowledge gap concerning historic analysis of how exposure to coastal flooding has evolved. Understanding what drives changes in exposure can help us to better predict how exposure may evolve in the future under the combined pressures of climate change induced sea level rise, growing populations and increasing development within coastal floodplains.
This thesis developed a quantitative methodology to evaluate the detailed historic evolution of exposure with regards to changing coastal population and other drivers of exposure. This includes formal definitions of exposure with and without defences. The occurrence of damaging coastal and river flooding over a >100 year period in the UK was evaluated which showed that reported flooding has been increasing significantly. Subsequently a framework was developed for quantification of exposure with and with- out defences: new GIS methods were developed to spatially distribute census population data across the indicative floodplain based on residential development patterns observed on historic maps and a rapid inundation model. A time series dataset on changes in defence heights was compiled from historic and contemporary records. A computational FAE (Fraction of Attributable Exposure) technique was used to evaluate the effect of flood drivers on the changing exposure.
As a demonstration of the methodology, population exposure to a range of flood events was evaluated at 10 year intervals between 1801 and 2011 for Portsea and Hayling islands in the UK’s Solent region, representing a city with significant flood risk, and a more rural location, respectively. 1801 represents the first UK Census, while sea level data is available at Portsmouth since 1960 and this is extrapolated back to 1801. The results show that exposure has grown significantly at both sites. Annual average people exposure (averaged across a range of recurrence intervals) increased from 176 and 27 to 6,911 and 692 over the study period in Portsea and Hayling, respectively. Most of the exposure in Hayling developed after 1931 when residential areas started to encroach on the coastal floodplain. In Portsea, the exposure grew until 1931 and then decreased until 1981 and is now growing again, following changes in the Portsea population. Population growth and residential development have been much bigger drivers of increased exposure to coastal flooding than sea level rise in the region studied, accounting for 71% and 85.5% of the growth in exposure in Portsea and Hayling, respectively, with sea level rise explaining the balance.
The methods presented are generic and could be readily extended to a national level analysis. It could also be repeated elsewhere in the world where the necessary data on population and flood characteristics (land elevation, flood levels, sea level change) are available. By understanding historic changes in exposure, an improved understanding of changes in flood risk can be developed,
including a reality check on scenarios to inform future flood risk management
Can health technologies be assessed using routine data?
No full textObjectives: The potential of routine data for health technology assessment (HTA) in the United Kingdom was assessed.Methods: Compiled were a comprehensive list of routine databases, their classification according to data characteristics, literature review on their current use, and their comparison with key topics identified as priorities for HTA.Results: Two hundred seventy health-care databases for England or the English regions were identified. Twenty-four included data on both health technology and patient health state. Eleven found some published use in effectiveness evaluation. Of 140 prioritized health technologies, only 22 could be identified in routine databases.Conclusions: Routine data are plentiful but of limited use in HTA. The data sets usually do not include the effect of treatments. Coding is inadequate, and confidentiality regulations will make matters worse. Both need urgent attention
Rapid and responsive health technology assessment: the development and evaluation process in the South and West region of England
No full textThe Development and Evaluation Committee (DEC) provides local guidance on the value of new and existing health care technologies, including drugs, devices, procedures and health care settings. The system is made up of two components: i) literature review and cost‐effectiveness estimation of the proposed and current technologies, and ii) consideration by the Development and Evaluation Committee which arbitrates, makes recommendations and disseminates results across the South and West region. Sixty‐three reviews have been undertaken to date, including, for example, beta interferon for multiple sclerosis, pulsed dye laser in the treatment of port‐wine stains, and paclitaxel in ovarian cancer. The outcomes of this service are guides to purchasing which are both carefully researched and scrutinized
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Predicting the impact of new health technologies on average length of stay: development of a prediction framework
No full textObjectives: The aim of this study was to develop a framework to predict the impact of new health technologies on average length of hospital stay.Methods: A literature search of EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and the Health Management Information Consortium databases was conducted to identify papers that discuss the impact of new technology on length of stay or report the impact with a proposed mechanism of impact of specific technologies on length of stay. The mechanisms of impact were categorized into those relating to patients, the technology, or the organization of health care and clinical practice.Results: New health technologies have a variable impact on length of stay. Technologies that lead to an increase in the proportion of sicker patients or increase the average age of patients remaining in the hospital lead to an increase in individual and average length of stay. Technologies that do not affect or improve the inpatient case mix, or reduce adverse effects and complications, or speed up the diagnostic or treatment process should lead to a reduction in individual length of stay and, if applied to all patients with the condition, will reduce average length of stay.Conclusions: The prediction framework we have developed will ensure that the characteristics of a new technology that may influence length of stay can be consistently taken into consideration by assessment agencies. It is recognized that the influence of technology on length of stay will change as a technology diffuses and that length of stay is highly sensitive to changes in admission policies and organization of care
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
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