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    Uncertainty and risk-taking in science: Meaning, measurement and management in peer review of research proposals

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    Concern that the selection of research projects by peer review disfavors risky science has called attention to ways to incorporate risk into the evaluation of research proposals. This discussion often occurs in the absence of well-defined and developed concepts of what risk and uncertainty mean in science. This paper sets out to address this void with the goal of providing building blocks to further the discussion of the meaning of risk and uncertainty in science. The core contributions of the paper are fourfold. First, we outline the meaning of risk in science, drawing on insights from literatures on risk and uncertainty. Second, based on this outline, we discuss possible ways in which programs can embrace a more comprehensive concept of risk and embed it in peer review of proposals, with the goal of not penalizing risky research proposals with the potential of high return when funding decisions are made. Third, we make an important distinction between research projects involving high-risk and research projects whose evaluation is subjected to ambiguity/radical uncertainty. Fourth, we discuss possible ways of addressing ambiguity/radical uncertainty by funding agencies

    Last Word on the Discussion regarding the paper "Uncertainty and risk-taking in science: Meaning, measurement and management in peer review of research proposals"

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    We began this paper out of a desire to develop an understanding of the meaning of risk in science, and create a discourse about its meaning, a topic that we saw as very important and yet not sufficiently developed. Our aim was to have this discussion with the broad group of scientists, scholars and policy makers interested in the science of science (e.g., Fortunato et al., 2018). The wish to speak to this diverse interdisciplinary community is the primary reason for our choice of terms. For example, although we appreciate the distinction between risk and uncertainty that is common in several areas of economics, dating back to Frank Knight (Knight, 1921), we choose to use the terms risk and uncertainty as synonyms and to call ambiguity situations characterized by lack of knowledge. We do this largely to encourage as broad a community as possible to read this work. The same choice led us to refrain from building our notion of risk on constructs, like the dichotomy exploration/exploitation (March, 1991), or metrics, such as novelty (Veugelers et al., 2021) that have a specific disciplinary meaning and would be difficult to understand by those not working in specific disciplines

    Global competition for scientific talent: evidence from location decisions of PhDs and postdocs in 16 countries

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    We analyze the decisions of foreign-born PhD and postdoctoral trainees in four natural science fields to come to the United States vs. go to another country for training. Data are drawn from the GlobSci survey of research scientists in 16 countries. A major reason individuals report coming to train in the United States is the prestige of its programs and/or career prospects; perceived lifestyle in the United States is a major factor individuals report for training elsewhere. The availability of exchange programs elsewhere is associated with fewer PhD students coming to the United States. The relative unattractiveness of fringe benefits in the United States is associated with going elsewhere for postdoctoral training. Countries that have been nibbling at the US PhD and postdoc share are Australia, Germany, and Switzerland; France and Great Britain have gained appeal in attracting postdocs, but not in attracting PhD students. Canada has made gains in neither

    International competition for PhDs and postdoctoral scholars: What does (and does not) matter

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    We explore factors that lead students and postdoctoral scholars who train outside their native country to come to the United States rather than go to a third country for study. We use data collected by the authors in 2011 as part of the GlobSci project of research-active scientists working in 16 countries. Our research suggests that public policy plays an important role in attracting the foreign born to study in a country and that the United States is a magnet for foreign students and postdocs precisely because the United States has excelled in creating a strong educational and research environment. Students who come to the United States appreciate these strengths and score factors that are proxies for the research environment higher than students who go to most other countries for trainin

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed

    Variations on the Author

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    “Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship

    Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis

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    We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis

    Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts

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    We conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more sophisticated methods

    Migrant scientists and international networks

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    We examine collaboration patterns of foreign scientists working in one of 16 countries in 2011 and compare them to the collaboration patterns of nonmigrant scientists and scientists with some international experience who have returned. Data come from the GlobSci survey. Major findings are that both foreign-born scientists and returnees have larger international research networks than do native researchers who lack an international background. The higher incidence of international collaboration among migrants is driven primarily by those who did not get their PhD training in the destination country but rather came for a postdoctoral position or directly for employment. We also find that a sizeable share of foreign born collaborate with researchers located in their country of origin and that migrants are also likely to collaborate with individuals from their home country who are working or studying in a third country (diaspora effect). Finally, the relative strength of the origin country's science base matters in the sense that those who come from a relatively stronger base have superior networks compared to those coming from a relatively weaker science base
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