1,720,985 research outputs found
Colombia : Essays on Conflict, Peace, and Development
No full textA purpose of this book is to present
recent World Bank analytical work on the causes of violence
and conflict in Colombia, highlighting pilot lending
programs oriented to promote peace and development. The
Bank's international experiences in post-conflict
situations in different countries and their relevance for
Colombia are also examined in this volume. The
identification of socio-economic determinants of conflict,
violence, and reforms for peace came about as a key element
of the Bank's assistance strategy for Colombia, defined
in conjunction with government authorities and
representatives of civil society. This report is organized
as follows: After the introductory chapter, Chapter 2
provides a conceptual framework for understanding a broad
spectrum of political, economic, and social violence issues;
identifies the role played by both the country's
history and the unequal access to economic and political
power in the outbreak and resilience of political violence;
and examines as costs of violence the adverse impact on
Colombia's physical, natural, human, and social
capital. Chapter 3 analyzes the costs of achieving peace and
its fiscal implications; and indicates that exclusion and
inequality rather than poverty as the main determinants of
violence and armed conflict. Chapter 4 reviews the
Bank's experience in assisting countries that are
experiencing, or have already overcome, domestic armed
conflict. The authors illustrate the relevance of these
cases for Colombia
Crisis y dolarizacion en el Ecuador : estabilidad, crecimiento y equidad social
No full textEarly in 2000, Ecuador, confronted with
a serious economic crisis, adopted the US dollar as its
national currency, This book examines the conditions that
led to this action, describing the repeated cycles of crisis
and failed stabilization that fatally undermined confidence
in the Ecuadorian sucre. The book then analyzes
dollarization's initial results and its effects on
inflation, growth, poverty, inequality, marginalization,
gender, and the Ecuadoran family. It also puts the Ecuadoran
experience with dollarization in an international perspective
Can reforming global institutions help developing countries share more in the benefits from globalization?
Full text linkGlobalization could significantly expand trade, international investment, and technological advances, but the gains from global integration have been unevenly distributed across and within nations. Greater global interdependence has also brought greater macroeconomic volatility, resulting in several serious financial crises in the second half of the 1990s. The global matrix of Bretton Woods and United Nations institutions that developed starting in the 1940s, formed under a different balance of power, in a world of fixed exchange rates and limited capital mobility. Since the 1960s regional financial institutions have emerged because of the greater autonomy of different regions and the greater financial needs of development. The author reviews different proposals for reform of the international financial institutions and changes in the roles of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. He highlights the implications for developing countries of (1) Policy conditionality. (2) The countercyclical role of multilaterals'lending. (3) Greater lending to middle-income than to low-income developing countries. (3) Access to liquidity at times of crisis. (4) Mechanisms for giving low-income countries a greater voice in IMF and World Bank decisionmaking. The author streses the overlapping responsibilities of the Bretton Woods and regional financial institutions and the need to reassess the allocation of responsibilities and to develop better coordination mechanisms between these institutions. Those designing institutional reform must consider the corporate capabilities of each type of institution. The corporate cultures of global and regional institutions differ. So does the kind of knowledge they generate and disseminate, and so do patterns of interactions with, and mechanisms for representation of, client countries.Finally, the author calls attention to the need to harmonize national and global growth-oriented policies in a way that reduces volatility and promotes social equity.Environmental Economics&Policies,Governance Indicators,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform
After socialism and dirigisme : which way?
Full text linkThe author identifies fundamental economic changes in the last 20 years that have influenced the emergence of a new paradigm on economic reform. The new orthodoxy on economic reform emphasizes smaller government, trade liberalization, business deregulation and privatization, macroeconomic austerity, and the role of free markets for resource allocation and growth. After describing diverse country experiences in economic reform, the author summarizes his findings on key aspects of the design of economic reform programs. Shock treatment (as opposed to the gradual approach) requires a strong government with broad social support, as the costs of the policies are paid upfront and the benefits may take time to accrue. If the program involves protracted social hardship, political support will begin to evaporate and pressure will build for a reversal of reform. Important choices must be made about the sequence of macroeconomic adjustment and consolidation and structural reform. Implementing tax reform and converting quotas to tariffs improve the fiscal budget, so they contribute to macroeconomic stabilization. But premature financial liberalization, before the budget is balanced and real interest rates are at a reasonable level, may lead to financial crisis, as happened in Chile in 1982-83. Massive privatization of large-scale firms can have both stabilizing and destabilizing macroeconomic effects, for example. If it means getting rid of loss-making public enterprises, it could save scarce government resources. But if the resulting output and unemployment costs are socially unsustainable, pressure may mount for the government to come to the enterprises'rescue. The shift from an economy with controlled prices to one in which most prices are market-determined generally involves a big hike in price levels. Chile and Mexico illustrate the stubbornness of the inflation that may follow. China, Korea, and Chile represent countries that carried out economic reform under authoritarian governments that postponed political reform to gain political legitimacy from the fruits of consolidated economic reform. In countries where economic and political reform are pursued simultaneously (as in Eastern Europe and Russia), fragile democracies with a fragmented party system and weak social institutions and governments do not provide the most favorable political environment for implementing and consolidating complex and painful economic reforms. Under these conditions, governments are bound to face the dilemma of either postponing economic reform to avert a political crisis or to backslide in democratization to apply painful economic policies - both unsavory choices.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Inequality,Achieving Shared Growth
Understanding the investment cycle in adjustment programs : evidence from reforming economies
Full text linkThe author reviews recent literature on capital formation and economic reform and looks at the cycle of private investment that occurs during adjustment. He identifies three phases in the response of private investment to adjustment programs: initial contraction, a long pause, and sustained recovery. The empirical evidence from Chile, Mexico, and Thailand shows that the initial contraction lasts from one to two years and the pause for three to five years. Moreover, the length of the investment pause is longer for low-income countries such as Bolivia and Ghana. Also, the cycle of public investment is of greater amplitude than the cycle of private investment. In characterizing the cycles of investment, the author assesses the role of such factors as demand restraint, currency depreciation, the value of waiting, credibility failures, and the lack of supportive infrastructure.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Trade and Regional Integration,Macroeconomic Management,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism
Can Reforming Global Institutions Help Developing Countries Share More in the Benefits from Globalization?
No full textGlobalization could significantly expand
trade, international investment, and technological advances,
but the gains from global integration have been unevenly
distributed across and within nations. Greater global
interdependence has also brought greater macroeconomic
volatility, resulting in several serious financial crises in
the second half of the 1990s. The global matrix of Bretton
Woods and United Nations institutions that developed
starting in the 1940s, formed under a different balance of
power, in a world of fixed exchange rates and limited
capital mobility. Since the 1960s regional financial
institutions have emerged because of the greater autonomy of
different regions and the greater financial needs of
development. The author reviews different proposals for
reform of the international financial institutions and
changes in the roles of the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) and the World Bank. He highlights the implications for
developing countries of (1) Policy conditionality. (2) The
countercyclical role of multilaterals' lending. (3)
Greater lending to middle-income than to low-income
developing countries. (3) Access to liquidity at times of
crisis. (4) Mechanisms for giving low-income countries a
greater voice in IMF and World Bank decisionmaking. The
author streses the overlapping responsibilities of the
Bretton Woods and regional financial institutions and the
need to reassess the allocation of responsibilities and to
develop better coordination mechanisms between these
institutions. Those designing institutional reform must
consider the corporate capabilities of each type of
institution. The corporate cultures of global and regional
institutions differ. So does the kind of knowledge they
generate and disseminate, and so do patterns of interactions
with, and mechanisms for representation of, client
countries.Finally, the author calls attention to the need to
harmonize national and global growth-oriented policies in a
way that reduces volatility and promotes social equity
Private investment and macroeconomic adjustment : an overview
Full text linkThis paper reviews current investment theories, recent models linking macroeconomic policies and private investment, and the effect of uncertainty and credibility on irreversible investment decisions. Empirical studies on the subject are also reviewed, and the general implications of this literature for the design of growth-oriented adjustment programs are discussed.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Financial Intermediation,Banks&Banking Reform
Macroeconomic constraints for medium term growth and distribution : a model for Chile
Full text linkThe recovery of the Chilean economy since the mid 1980s, has certainly been successful in macroeconomic terms. In fact, the restoration of growth and the correction of external imbalances after the severe economic crises of 1982 -83 has taken place in a macroeconomic environment of moderate inflation, without major fiscal imbalances, exports have expanded significantly and foreign debt burden indicators have improved. However, distributive and poverty related indicators point to pending problems. The major challenge, therefore, is to maintain sustainable rates of economic growth, address the social issues of poverty reduction and improve income distribution patterns, while preserving macroeconomic and financial stability. The paper is organized as follows : Section I is an introduction. Section II presents a formal macroeconomic model that identifies major constraints ( external, savings and fiscal ) that shape the scope for growth. In Section III the model is numerically calibrated with parameters of the economy and three policy exercises are explored : i) an increase in public spending; ii) a reduction of interest payments of 3% of potential GDP; and iii) a reduction of the markup rate of 4%. Section IV reviews various policy excercises and the conclusions are summarized in Section V.Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Stabilization,Banks&Banking Reform
Inflation and growth in the transition from socialism : the case of Bulgaria
Full text linkBulgaria's shaky macroeconomic situation is a serious obstacle for a smooth transition from central planning to markets. It has to correct large current account deficits with the convertible currencyarea. It has to eliminate inflationary pressures and large price distortions, and get into a path of sustainable growth. The links between inflation, money velocity, the money overhang, and the fiscal deficit are crucial for assessing probable inflationary trends in Bulgaria. The author shows that with controlled prices and financial repression, low velocity keeps inflation at an artificially low level despite large fiscal deficits. But as prices are deregulated and the financial sector is reformed, velocity can be expected to increase. Bulgaria's moves toward a market economy are likely to affect growth through several channels. Reforms of the incentive structure will make part of the capital stock economically obsolete, hampering productive capacity in the short run. The response of private investment to the new incentives will be highly sensitive to macroeconomic stability and the perceived probability that the reform process will last and consolidate. Given these impediments, external support in the form of new financing and direct investment will play a major role in consolidating the reform and in the resumption of growth.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets,Economic Stabilization
Macroeconomic adjustment, stabilization, and growth in reforming socialist economies : analytical and policy issues
Full text linkCurrent attempts at reform in Eastern European countries raise important issues of macroeconomic management in the transition from central planning to a market or mixed economy. This paper develops simple models, reviews empirical evidence and discusses policy issues associated with traditional socialist economies and those undergoing reform. Those issues involve inflation, growth, money overhang, disequilibrium in goods and labour markets and interactions between stabilization and growth.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Stabilization,Municipal Financial Management
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