177,187 research outputs found
Self-organisation or Selfcreation? From Social Physics to Realist Dynamics
No full textThe currently fashionable theory of self-organisation has its origins in statistical physics. Many believe that the underlying physics model, which is based on inanimate systems, can be employed to explain and predict the emergence of social structures, even of history itself. Some are even convinced that it will be possible to construct a social physics to displace the social sciences. The purpose of this article is to test those claims by reviewing some of the physical studies that have been made of human society, and its conclusion is that those claims cannot be substantiated. The underlying problem is that self-organisation is a one-dimensional theoretical concept that focuses exclusively upon supply-side interactions, from which order and complexity are said to ‘emerge’. But there is a better way. By systematic observation of living systems, both human and non-human, it has been possible to derive a general dynamic theory that embraces a more complex reality, involving a creative exchange between decision-making individuals and the changing needs of their society. I have called this interaction between the dynamic forces of demand and supply in living systems, the process of ‘strategic exchange’. And it is this strategic exchange that determines all other structural relationships in society, including the interaction between its constituent members. It is important in the social sciences, therefore, to move on from social physics to realist dynamics.agent-based modelling, complexity theory, dynamic-strategy theory, power laws, realist dynamics, self-organised criticality, Snooks-Panov algorithm, social physics, strategic demand
A General Theory of Complex Living Systems: Exploring the Demand Side of Dynamics
No full textcomplex living systems, unified theory, dynamics, general theory, demand-side, methodology
Climate Mitigation or Technological Revolution? A Critical Choice of Futures
No full textMankind currently is not only facing a major environmental challenge, it is embarking on a hugely risky enterprise — that of climate mitigation. This unprecedented global adventure is an attempt to change the nature and shape of human society on the grounds that our traditional market system has failed us. The current enterprise is hugely risky because it is based not on what has happened but on what we are told by “climate-mitigation engineers” might happen. The argument in this essay is simple but powerful, and can be outlined in the following five propositions: • The science of climate change is challenging but compelling, based as it is on an impressive and growing body of expert empirical research. What it shows is that recent climate change is human induced. Hence, further climate change and its mitigation are problems primarily for the social not natural sciences. • The “science” of climate mitigation is nonexistent, because orthodox social science has failed to model the dynamics of human society. And it is the dynamics of human society that will largely determine future climate change. • Orthodox economics, which has attempted to fill the void, has failed completely. Economic theory is suitable only for the analysis of small, shortrun issues that can be accommodated within a static framework — such as the price of a cup of tea; whereas the issue of climate mitigation is one of the biggest and most important issues humanity will ever face, it is long-run in nature, and it can only be adequately handled within a dynamic framework. As orthodox economics has been unable to develop a realist general dynamic theory, its practitioners have been forced to employ simplistic historicist models when analyzing future climate change. • What we need is a new science of human dynamics. The basis for this new science is provided by the author’s dynamic-strategy theory. It is a realist theory in the sense that it has been derived from a long-term, systematic observation of the fluctuating fortunes of both human society over the past 2 million years (myrs) and life over the past 4,000 myrs. • Economists have massively underestimated the costs of their proposed climate mitigation program aimed at stabilizing greenhouse-gas concentrations, because they have employed the inadequate static cost–benefit methodology. This essay takes a very different approach. By estimating the dynamic costs — essentially the costs of suppressing the imminent technological revolution that can only be identified in a realist dynamic framework — I have found that total costs will be almost 100 times greater than current estimates by the year 2100. This puts a comprehensive mitigation program totally out of the question. What, then, is to be done? This essay provides the answer.climate mitigation, technological revolution, human dynamics, economic intervention, dynamic costs and benefits
The Neanderthal Enigma: A New Theoretical Approach
No full textThe limited material evidence relating to Neanderthal culture has enabled scholars to give free rein to their imaginations in reconstructing the mind and society of this extinct branch of Homo. Despite their remarkable success, the Neanderthals are often characterised as being incapable of symbolic thought, language, and action. Sociobiologists have even suggested that the Neanderthal mind was structurally different to that of modern humans. To provide a realist perspective on the “Neanderthal enigma”, a new general dynamic theory is presented and applied to the available evidence. This new theoretical approach shows that, despite possessing distinct mitochondrial DNA, Neanderthal minds and society were little different to those of modern humans, and that our ultimate success was far from inevitable.Neanderthal extinction, dynamic-strategy theory, evolution, symbolic thought, language, complex systems
Australia’s Longrun Economic Strategy, Performance, and Policy: A New Dynamic Perspective
No full textThis essay attempts to quantify and explain the economic performance of Australia from the first European settlement to the present, and beyond. A general dynamic theory – the ‘dynamic-strategy’ theory – has been employed to provide a new interpretation of ‘dynamics Downunder’. It is shown, among other things, that the bold attempt from the 1910s to the 1960s to turn aside from the traditional development policy of exogenously driven natural-resource exploitation in order to embark on an endogenously determined dynamic process, has broken down during the course of the present generation. This was mainly due to a failure of ‘strategic leadership’ on the part of recent Australian governments that have, quite rightly, dismantled the framework of protection, but have failed to replace it with the infrastructure of strategically relevant technological ideas. Once again Australia’s economic prosperity depends heavily on the fluctuating fortunes of the global economy. While in the nineteenth century this took the form of reliance on the prosperity of Britain, today it centres on the continuing growth of Japan and China. This critical problem has been exacerbated by the misconceived policy of inflation targeting that is damaging the central endogenous dynamic mechanism. What then of the future? It all depends on whether strategic leadership can ever be rediscovered, and a new dynamic economic strategy be adopted.long-run dynamics, dynamic-strategy theory, inflation targeting, strategic leadership, strategic demand.
Trends in demand for emergency ambulance services in Wiltshire over nine years: observational study
No full textDemand for emergency medical services in the United Kingdom is rising.1 Research into the type of patients transported by emergency ambulances and the severity of their illness has tended to focus on identifying people who use the service inappropriately rather than factors influencing demand, and our understanding of the increase in demand is poor
Constructing a General Theory of Life: The Dynamics of Human and Non-human Systems
No full textThe ultimate objective of theorists studying living systems is to construct a general theory of life that can explain and predict the dynamics of both human and nonhuman systems. Yet little progress has been made in this endeavour. Why? Because of the inappropriate methods adopted by complexity theorists. By assuming that the supply-side physics model – in which local interactions are said to give rise to the emergence of order and complexity – could be transferred either entirely (social physics) or partially (agent-based models, or ABMs) from the physical to the life sciences, we have distorted reality and, thereby, delayed the construction of a general dynamic theory of living systems. Is there a solution? Yes, but only if we abandon the deductive and analogical methods of complexity theorists and adopt the inductive method. With this approach it is possible to construct a realist and demand-side general dynamic theory, as in the case of the dynamic-strategy theory presented in this paper.complex living systems, unified theory, general theory of life, dynamics. Demand-side, methodology
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
No full textWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
"Closing the R&D Gap, Evaluating the Sources of R&D Spending"
No full textBoth spending and tax policies have been implemented in the United States with the goal of stimulating private sector research and development (R&D). Karier questions whether current R&D policy, especially the research and experimentation tax credit, can contribute to closing the gap between nondefense expenditures on R&D in the United States and such expenditures in other countries, such as Japan and Germany. He also explores possible changes to our current R&D policy to make it more effective.
Safety of telephone consultation for “non-serious" emergency ambulance service patients
No full textObjective: To assess the safety of nurses and paramedics offering telephone assessment, triage, and advice as an alternative to immediate ambulance despatch for emergency ambulance service callers classified by lay call takers as presenting with "non-serious" problems (category C calls). Design: Data for this study were collected as part of a pragmatic randomised controlled trial reported elsewhere. The intervention arm of the trial comprised nurse or paramedic telephone consultation using a computerised decision support system to assess, triage, and advise patients whose calls to the emergency ambulance service had been classified as "non-serious" by call takers applying standard priority despatch criteria. A multidisciplinary expert clinical panel reviewed data from ambulance service, accident and emergency department, hospital inpatient and general practice records, and call transcripts for patients triaged by nurses and paramedics into categories that indicated that despatch of an emergency ambulance was unnecessary. All cases for which one or more members of the panel rated that an emergency ambulance should have been despatched were re-reviewed by the entire panel for an assessment of the "life risk" that might have resulted. Setting: Ambulance services in London and the West Midlands, UK. Study population: Of 635 category C patients assessed by nurses and paramedics, 330 (52%) cases that had been triaged as not requiring an emergency ambulance were identified. Main outcome measures: Assessment of safety of triage decisions. Results: Sufficient data were available from the routine clinical records of 239 (72%) subjects to allow review by the specialist panel. For 231 (96.7%) sets of case notes reviewed, the majority of the panel concurred with the nurses’ or paramedics’ triage decision. Following secondary review of the records of the remaining eight patients, only two were rated by the majority as having required an emergency ambulance within 14 minutes. For neither of these did a majority of the panel consider that the patient would have been at "life risk" without an emergency ambulance being immediately despatched. However, the transcripts of these two calls indicated that the correct triage decision had been communicated to the patient, which suggests that the triage decision had been incorrectly entered into the decision support system. Conclusions: Telephone advice may be a safe method of managing many category C callers to 999 ambulance services. A clinical trial of the full implementation of this intervention is needed, large enough to exclude the possibility of rare adverse events
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