1,720,964 research outputs found
Oil Price Shocks and Economic Activity: The Asymmetric Cointegration Approach in South Africa
No full textThis study examines the link between oil prices and economic activity proxied by gross domestic product in the context of South Africa. The study employs the asymmetric approach proposed by Schorderet (2004) and advanced by Lardic and Mignon (2008). Asymmetric cointegration is used because it is believed that increasing and decreasing oil prices do not have similar or equal impacts on economic activity. In this study we document evidence for an asymmetric response of economic activity to oil price shocks. Further, our findings suggest that negative oil price shocks are important relative to positive oil price shocks.</jats:p
The Movement of Exchange Rate and Expected Income: Case of South Africa
Get PDFMany studies have investigated the impact of expectations on the exchange rates. However, it remains a challenge linking the exchange rates to its fundamentals. This study seeks to determine the impact of expectations of future income on the exchange rates behaviour. In this study, we employ the Bayesian VAR method. The study finds that the expectations of income have effects on the exchange rate behaviour. Furthermore, the exchange rates behaviour is asymmetric
The Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence of South Africa
Get PDFUnderstanding the role of the exchange rate behaviour in domestic prices is crucial for monetary authorities in anticipating inflation. Over the last 28 years (1994 – 2022), the inflation rate in South Africa has increased, averaging at 5.7% per year. It is believed that some of the increase in the inflation rate is a result of trade, hence this study aims at identifying how much of the changes in the exchange rate is passed on to domestic inflation. This idea is of interest in a country like South Africa that had implemented inflation targeting. The study identifies two channels of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT); direct and indirect. the direct involves the change in import prices that is associated with the change in the exchange rate. The indirect channel involves the change in consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI) that is associated with a change in import prices. The study uses monthly data from 1994 – 2022 to identify the speed and the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in the short-run and the long-run. Using the vector autoregressive model (VAR) and the vector error correction model the results shows that the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through to import prices is relatively higher than the exchange pass-through to the CPI and PPI and that import prices; CPI and PPI increases immediately after an increase in the exchange rate
Exchange Rates, Supply Chain Activity/Disruption Effects, and Exports
No full textIn the past, South African monetary policy aimed to protect the external value of the domestic currency (Rand); however, these efforts failed. Later, its monetary policy approach changed to allow the foreign exchange rate market to determine the exchange rates. In such a change, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) aimed to stabilize the demand for the Rand in the foreign exchange market by providing information to stabilize market expectations and create favorable market conditions. However, South African policymakers have struggled with currency depreciation since the early 60s, increasing the uncertainty of South African exports. This study aims to examine the effect of currency depreciation on exports using the Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model. Additionally, this study created and validated the supply chain activity/disruption index to capture the sea trade activity. The sample period for the analysis is 2009 to 2023. The study finds that currency depreciation does not improve trade between South Africa and its trading partners over time. Furthermore, the currency depreciation was found to be asymmetric to the effect of international trade across the different regimes. The supply chain activity index shows that the effect of supply chain activity/disruption on exports is regime-dependent. This implies that the effect on exports is dependent on the economic environment
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Threshold Effects on South Africa’s Renewable Energy–Economic Growth–Carbon Dioxide Emissions Nexus: A Nonlinear Analysis Using Threshold-Switching Dynamic Models
No full textThe transition of South Africa from coal-dependent energy systems to renewable energy alternatives presents economic and environmental trade-off complexities that require empirical investigation. This study employed threshold-switching dynamic models, NARDL analysis, and threshold Granger causality tests to investigate nonlinear relationships between renewable energy generation, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emissions in South Africa from 1980 to 2023. The threshold-switching dynamic models revealed critical structural breakpoints: a 56.4% renewable energy threshold for carbon dioxide emissions reduction, a 397.9% trade openness threshold for economic growth optimisation, and a 385.32% trade openness threshold for coal consumption transitions. The NARDL bounds test confirmed asymmetric effects in the carbon dioxide emissions and renewable energy relationship. The threshold Granger causality test established significant unidirectional causality from renewable energy to carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth to carbon dioxide emissions, and bidirectional causality between coal consumption and trade openness. However, renewable energy demonstrated no significant causal relationship with economic growth, contradicting traditional growth-led energy hypotheses. This study concluded that South Africa’s energy transition demonstrates distinct regime-dependent characteristics, with renewable energy deployment requiring critical mass thresholds to generate meaningful environmental benefits. The study recommended that optimal trade integration and renewable energy thresholds could fundamentally transform the economy’s carbon intensity while maintaining sustainable growth patterns
Exploring the Nature and Dynamics of Monetary–Fiscal Policy Interactions in South Africa
No full textUnderstanding the nature of monetary and fiscal policy interactions has gained more importance over the years, especially within the context of the global financial crisis and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. This study uses a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model and a Markov Switching Dynamic Regression (MSDR) framework to explore the dynamics of monetary–fiscal policy interactions in South Africa. The analysis employs time series data from 1994 to 2023 and tests the dynamic response of key macroeconomic variables to positive monetary and fiscal policy shocks. Furthermore, the MSDR framework is utilised to analyse how policy behaviour evolves during regime change. The TVP-VAR results show that fiscal expansions led to a positive response in GDP over time, a stable interest rate reaction post-COVID-19, and a consistently negative CPI response, contradicting conventional theory. The MSDR analysis reveals a dominant regime where monetary policy is active and fiscal policy is passive, with a positive interaction between interest rates and government spending, likely reflecting South Africa’s high debt environment. These findings underscore the importance of understanding policy interactions’ landscape to inform policy decisions better and minimise sub-optimal policy outcomes
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