46 research outputs found
De plurimis claris sceletisq₅ mulieribus opus prope diuinu₅ novissime congestum.
No full textIndexes: p. [7]-[9].Some errors in foliation resulting in an additional leaf. Cf. Besterman.Signatures: A⁴a-e⁸f⁶g-p⁸q⁶r⁸s⁶t⁸v⁶x⁸y-z⁶.Full page woodcuts dated 1493. Initials. Of the 171 woodcut ports. some are repeated or only slightly modified. The author is shown in the woodcut on verso of t.p.Colophon reads: Opus de claris selectisq₅ plurimis mulieribus a frate Ia. philippi Bergomẽse editum explicit: maxĩa cu₅ diligentia reuisu₅ et castigatũ per Reueren ... Albertũ de placẽtia et fr̃em Augustinu₅ de Casali maiori. ... Ferrarie ...Laurentij de rubeis ... M.cccclxxxxvij ...Author's name appears in first line of prologue: Prologus fratris Jacobi philippi Bergomẽnsis ..., and in the colophon with the imprint information.Sander, M. Livre à figures italien,HainMode of access: Internet.Library's copy from Theodore Besterman's library. Cf. Besterman, T. Art books, p. 41
Stochastic modelling of HIV/AIDS epidemiology with TB co-infection drug reaction in South Africa
No full textMSc (Statistics)Department of StatisticsThe study explores the stochastic approach to multi-state modeling of HIV dynamic evolution and identification of the model that best describes HIV progression on individuals under ART. The effects of TB co-infection, as well as the patients' development of adverse reaction to drugs to the transition rates are also examined. The study uses a cohort analysis of the surveillance data for HIV-infected patients under antiretroviral (ART) from the Wellness Clinic in Bela Bela, South Africa. The survey was conducted between 2005 and 2009 and a follow up was done after every 6 months. The method par titions the HIV infection period into five CD4-cell count intervals followed by the end points, that is, death and withdrawal from study. The analysis is based on transition probabilities, transition rates (hazards), mean sojourn times, and time to absorption. The effects of the covariates, namely sex, age, TB co-infection, drug reaction, body mass index (BMI), baseline viral load (VLBL) and the CD4+ cell count baseline on enrollment, on transition in tensities for each model are also analysed. The likelihood ratio test is used to compare the fitted models, and the test shows that the time inhomogeneous model describes the data better than the time homogeneous models. The results show that the rates of immune recovery are generally higher than the rates of immune deterioration. The patients who developed TB during treat ment have higher rates of immune deterioration than recovery. Having TB as the initial marker of AIDS has higher contributory effects to the deaths from all the stages except from the AIDS defining stage. Reaction to drugs was the leading cause of transition from a CD4+ cell count 2: 750 to a CD4+ cell count between 500 and 750
Continuous-time Markov modelling of the effects of treatment regimens on HIV/AIDS immunology and virology
No full textThesis (Ph.D.(Mathematical Statistics))--University of the Free State, 2019As the Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) enters the human body, its main target is the CD4+ cell, which it turns into a factory that produces millions of other HIV particles, thus compromising the immune system and resulting in opportunistic infections, for example tuberculosis (TB). Combination Anti-retroviral therapy (cART) has become the standard of care for patients with HIV infection and has led to the reduction in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) related morbidity and mortality, an increase in CD4+ cell counts and a decrease in viral load count to undetectable levels. In modelling HIV/AIDS progression in patients, researchers mostly deal with either viral load only or CD4+cellcountsonly, as they expect these two variables to be collinear. The purpose of this study is to fit a continuous-time Markov model that best describes mortality of HIV infected patients on cART by eventually including both CD4+ cell counts monitoring and viral load monitoring in a single model after treating for collinearity of these variables using the Principal Component approach. Acohortof320HIVinfectedpatientsoncARTfollowedupat a Wellness Clinic in Bela Bela, South Africa, is used in this thesis. These patients are administered with a triple therapy of two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTIs) and one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI). The thesis is divided into five sections. In the first section, a continuous-time homogeneous Markov model based on CD4+ cell count states is fitted. The model is used to analyse the effects of tuberculosis (TB) co-infection on the immunologic progression of HIV/AIDS patients on cART. TB co-infection was of interest because it is an opportunistic infection that takes advantage of the compromised immune system. Results from this section showed that once TB is diagnosed prior to treatment initiation and managed, mortality rates are reduced. However, if TB is diagnosed during the course of treatment, it increases the rates of immune deterioration in patients, leading to high rates of mortality. Therefore, this section proposes the need for routine TB screening before treatment initiation and a tevery stage of the follow up period, to avoid loss of lives. The goal of cART is not only to boost the immune system but also to suppress the viral load to undetectable levels. Thus, in the second section, a non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov model based on viral load states is fitted. This model helped in revealing possibilities of viral rebound among patient son cART. Although there were no significant gender differences on HIV/AIDS virology, the model explained the progression of patients better than the model based on CD4+ cell count fitted in the first section. In the third section, determinants of viral rebound are analysed. Viral rebound was notable mainly after patients had attained a viral load suppressed to the levels between 50 copies/mL and 10 000 copies/mL. The major attributes of viral rebound were non-adherence, lactic acid, resistance to treatment, and different combination therapy such as AZT-3TC-LPV/r and FTC-TDF-EFV. This section suggests the need to closely monitor HIV patients to ensure attainment of undetectable viral load (below 50 copies/mL) during the first six months of treatment uptake, as this reduces chances of viral rebound, leading to life gain by HIV/AIDS patients. The fourth section compares the use of viral load count and CD4+cell count in monitoring HIV/AIDS disease progression on patients receiving cART in order to establish the superiority of viral load over CD4+ cell count. This was done by fitting two separate models, one for CD4+ cell count states and the other one for viral load states. Comparison of the fitted models were based on percentage prevalence plots for the fitted model and for the observed data and likelihood ratio tests. The test confirmed that viral load monitoring is superior compared to CD4+cell count monitoring. Viral load monitoring is very good at detecting virologic failure, thereby avoiding unnecessary switches of treatment lines. However, this section suggests the use of both CD4+cellcount monitoring and viral load monitoring because CD4+ cell count monitoring helps in managing possibilities of the development of opportunistic infections. In the fifth section, continuous-time homogeneous Markov models are fitted, including both CD4+ cell count monitoring and viral load monitoring in one model. Since these variables are assumed to be collinear, principal component analysis was used to treat for the collinearity among these two variables. The models are fitted in such a way that when Markov states are based on CD4+ cell count, the principal component of viral load is included as a covariate, and when the Markov states are based on viral load, the principal component of CD4+cell count is included as a covariate. Results from the models show an improvement in the power of the continuous-time Markov model to explain and predict mortality when both CD4+cellcount and viral load routine monitoring are included in one model
Le De plurimis claris selectisque mulieribus de Jacopo Filippo Foresti : un maillon méconnu de la réception du De mulieribus claris de Boccace et du genre des vies de femmes célèbres
No full textÀ la Renaissance, les galeries de femmes célèbres se constituent en véritable genre littéraire. De nombreux écrivains, à la suite du De claris mulieribus de Boccace (1313-1375), ont décidé de célébrer les exploits et les vertus de ces femmes en élevant une sorte de monument littéraire en leur honneur ; l’Italien Jacopo Filippo Foresti (1434-1520), ermite de saint Augustin, est l’un d’entre eux : il est l’auteur du De plurimis claris selectisque mulieribus. Les spécialistes de Boccace ont souvent considéré l’ouvrage comme un plagiat, ce qui en a limité l’étude. Or, l’œuvre de Foresti, par rapport à d’autres ouvrages du même genre, connaît une diffusion importante et son impact, déjà signalé par la critique en ce qui concerne la littérature française de la Renaissance, mérite qu’on la redécouvre. Certes, cet ouvrage reprend les traits distinctifs du genre initié par le célèbre écrivain florentin ; cependant cette reprise s’accompagne de changements notables comme l’ajout de sources, l’élargissement du cadre thématique – introduction de saintes dans le catalogue – et le développement des vies de femmes modernes. Si le recueil de Foresti s’inscrit dans la longue liste des continuateurs et imitateurs du De mulieribus claris de Boccace, il devient à son tour un modèle, inavoué, pour les auteurs de « galeries » féminines et constitue donc un moment important de l’histoire du genre.During the Renaissance, galleries of famous women became a veritable literary genre. Among many writers who, on the model of Boccaccio’s (1313-1375) De claris mulieribus, decided to celebrate the feats and virtues of these women, raising some sort of literary monument in their honour; the Italian Jacopo Filippo Foresti (1434-1520), hermit of St. Augustine, is one of them: he is the author of the De plurimis claris selectisque mulieribus. The specialists of Boccaccio have often considered this work as plagiarism, thus limiting its study. Now, Foresti’s work, compared to other works belonging to the same genre, enjoys a remarkable diffusion and its impact, already highlighted by the critics in respect to French literature of the Renaissance, truly deserves a rediscovery. This work takes over the distinctive features of the genre started by the famous Florentine writer. Nevertheless, this imitation goes along with noteworthy changes such as the addition of sources, the widening of the thematic framework – introduction of saints in the catalogue – and the development of the lives of modern women. If Foresti’s collection falls within the long list of Boccaccio’s De mulieribus claris sequels and imitations, it becomes a model in its turn, unavowed, for the authors of female «galleries» and therefore represents an important moment in the history of the genre
“Singular decus ytalicum”: la biografia di Giovanna di Napoli nel De mulieribus claris
No full textThe last of the one hundred and six chapters conforming Boccaccio’s De mulieribus claris is devoted to queen Joanna of Naples. The addition of this life implies a certain degree of anomaly in the tradition of exemplary literature because of two reasons. Firstly, the Angevin sovereign was in her early thirties when the author finished the composition of his collection and, secondly, because the description of the monarch’s life that Boccaccio provides can be said far from objective narration and much closer to a propagandistic portrait of the Neapolitan queen.L’ultimo dei centosei capitoli del De mulieribus claris di Boccaccio è consacrato alla regina Giovanna di Napoli. Quest’inclusione comporta un’anomalia nella topica della letteratura esemplare per due motivi. Per cominciare, la sovrana angioina era poco più che trentenne quando il certaldese finì la stesura della sua silloge e, in secondo luogo, perché la versione della vita della monarca che l’autore fornisce è ben lungi da poter essere considerata una narrazione oggettiva, avvicinandosi molto di più a un ritratto propagandistico della regina partenopea.
In questo articolo si analizzano queste particolarità della vita di Giovanna e si indaga nei motivi che potrebbero aver portato Boccaccio a configurare in questo modo il capitolo di chiusura della sua raccolta sulle donne celebri
Time-homogeneous Markov process for HIV/AIDS progression under a combination treatment therapy: cohort study, South Africa
No full textA superiority of viral load over CD4 cell count when predicting mortality in HIV patients on therapy
No full textAbstract Background CD4 cell count has been identified to be an essential component in monitoring HIV treatment outcome. However, CD4 cell count monitoring sometimes fails to predict virological failure resulting in unnecessary switch of treatment lines which causes drug resistance and limitations of treatment options. This study assesses the use of both viral load (HIV RNA) and CD4 cell count in the monitoring of HIV/AIDS progression. Methods Time-homogeneous Markov models were fitted, one on CD4 cell count monitoring and the other on HIV RNA monitoring. Effects of covariates; gender, age, CD4 baseline, HIV RNA baseline and adherence to treatment were assessed for each of the fitted models. Assessment of the fitted models was done using prevalence plots and the likelihood ratio tests. The analysis was done using the “msm” package in R. Results Results from the analysis show that viral load monitoring predicts deaths of HIV/AIDS patients better than CD4 cell count monitoring. Assessment of the fitted models shows that viral load monitoring is a better predictor of HIV/AIDS progression than CD4 cell count. Conclusion From this study one can conclude that although patients take more time to achieve a normal CD4 cell count and less time to achieve an undetectable viral load, once the CD4 cell count is normal, mortality risks are reduced. Therefore, both viral load monitoring and CD4 count monitoring can be used to provide useful information which can be used to improve life expectance of patients living with HIV. However, viral load monitoring is a better predictor of HIV/AIDS progression than CD4 cell count and hence viral load is deemed superior
ARIMA MODEL IN PREDICTING OF COVID-19 EPIDEMIC FOR THE SOUTHERN AFRICA REGION
No full textBackground: Coronavirus pandemic, a serious global public health threat, affects the Southern African countries more than any other country on the continent. The region has become the epicenter of the coronavirus with South Africa accounting for the most cases. To cap the deadly effect caused by the pandemic, we apply a statistical modelling approach to investigate and predict COVID-19 incidence.
Methods: Using secondary data on the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases per million for Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) member states from March 5, 2020, to July 15, 2021, we model and forecast the spread of coronavirus in the region. We select the best ARIMA model based on the log-likelihood, AIC, and BIC of the fitted models.
Results: The ARIMA (11,1,11) model for the complete data set was finally selected among ARIMA models based upon the parameter test and the Box–Ljung test. The ARIMA(11,1,9) was the best candidate for the training set. A 15-day forecast was also made from the model, which shows a perfect fit with the testing set.
Conclusion: The number of new COVID-19 cases per million for the SADC shows a downward trend, but the trend is characterized by peaks from time to time. Tightening up of the preventive measures continuously needs to be adapted in order to eradicate the coronavirus epidemic from the populatio
sadata.xlsx
No full text The data consists of daily reported COVID-19 cases in South Africa for the period 7 March 2020 to 27 September 2021. The data is used in the manuscript "Estimation of extreme quantiles of confirmed COVID-19 cases using South African data" </p
A Markov Model to Estimate Mortality Due to HIV / AIDS Using Viral Load Levels Based States and CD4 Cell Counts: A Principal Component Analysis Approach
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