1,720,967 research outputs found
Fast Simulation of Multifactor Portfolio Credit Risk
No full textThis paper develops rare-event simulation methods for the estimation of portfolio credit risk-the risk of losses to a portfolio resulting from defaults of assets in the portfolio. Portfolio credit risk is measured through probabilities of large losses, which are typically due to defaults of many obligors (sources of credit risk) to which a portfolio is exposed. An essential element of a portfolio view of credit risk is a model of dependence between these sources of credit risk: large losses occur rarely and are most likely to result from systematic risk factors that affect multiple obligors. As a consequence, estimating portfolio credit risk poses a challenge both because of the rare-event property of large losses and the dependence between defaults. To address this problem, we develop an importance sampling technique within the widely used Gaussian copula model of dependence. We focus on difficulties arising in multifactor models-that is, models in which multiple factors may be common to multiple obligors, resulting in complex dependence between defaults. Our importance sampling procedure shifts the mean of the common factor to increase the frequency of large losses. In multifactor models, different combinations of factor outcomes and defaults can produce large losses, so our method combines multiple importance sampling distributions, each associated with a shift in the mean of common factors. We characterize "optimal" mean shifts. Finding these points is both a combinatorial problem and a convex optimization problem, so we address computational aspects of this step as well. We establish asymptotic optimality results for our method, showing that-unlike standard simulation-it remains efficient as the event of interest becomes rarer.The ¯rst two authors dedicate this work to the memory of Perwez Shahabuddin, who died after
the original submission of the paper. They thank the reviewers for their careful reading of the
paper and many constructive comments. The second author thanks Dr. Kyungsik Lee for a
discussion on the subset sum problem. This research was partially supported by National Science
Foundation grant DMI 03-00044.
Exploiting regenerative structure to estimate finite time averages via simulation
No full textWe propose nonstandard simulation estimators of expected time averages over finite intervals [0, t], seeking to enhance estimation efficiency. We make three key assumptions: (i) the underlying stochastic process has regenerative structure, (ii) the time average approaches a known limit as time t increases and (iii) time 0 is a regeneration time. To exploit those properties, we propose a residual-cycle estimator, based on data from the regenerative cycle in progress at time t, using only the data after time t. We prove that the residual-cycle estimator is unbiased and more efficient than the standard estimator for all sufficiently large t. Since the relative efficiency increases in t, the method is ideally suited to use when applying simulation to study the rate of convergence to the known limit. We also consider two other simulation techniques to be used with the residual-cycle estimator. The first involves overlapping cycles, paralleling the technique of overlapping batch means in steady-state estimation; multiple observations are taken from each replication, starting a new observation each time the initial regenerative state is revisited. The other technique is splitting, which involves independent replications of the terminal period after time t, for each simulation up to time t. We demonstrate that these alternative estimators provide efficiency improvement by conducting simulations of queueing models.
Large deviations in multifactor portfolio credit risk
No full textThe measurement of portfolio credit risk focuses on rare but significant large-loss events. This paper investigates rare event asymptotics for the loss distribution in the widely used Gaussian copula model of portfolio credit risk. We establish logarithmic limits for the tail of the loss distribution in two limiting regimes. The first limit examines the tail of the loss distribution at increasingly high loss thresholds; the second limiting regime is based on letting the individual loss probabilities decrease toward zero. Both limits are also based on letting the size of the portfolio increase. Our analysis reveals a qualitative distinction between the two cases: in the rare-default regime, the tail of the loss distribution decreases exponentially, but in the large-threshold regime the decay is consistent with a power law. This indicates that the dependence between defaults imposed by the Gaussian copula is qualitatively different for portfolios of high-quality and lower-quality credits.
Fast simulation of rare events in Markov level/phase processes
No full textMethods of efficient Monte-Carlo simulation when rare events are involved have been studied for several decades. Rare events are very important in the context of evaluating high quality computer/communication systems. Meanwhile, the efficient simulation of systems involving rare events poses great challenges.
A simulation method is said to be efficient if the number of replicas required to get accurate estimates grows slowly, compared to the rate at which the probability of the rare event approaches zero.
Despite the great success of the two mainstream methods, importance sampling (IS) and importance splitting, either of them can become inefficient under certain conditions, as reported in some recent studies.
The purpose of this study is to look for possible enhancement of fast simulation methods. I focus on the ``level/phase process', a Markov process in which the level and the phase are two state variables. Furthermore, changes of level and phase are induced by events, which have rates that are independent of the level except at a boundary.
For such a system, the event of reaching a high level occurs rarely, provided the system typically stays at lower levels. The states at those high levels constitute the rare event set.
Though simple, this models a variety of applications involving rare events.
In this setting, I have studied two efficient simulation methods, the rate tilting method and the adaptive splitting method, concerning their efficiencies.
I have compared the efficiency of rate tilting with several previously used similar methods. The experiments are done by using queues in tandem, an often used test bench for the rare event simulation. The schema of adaptive splitting has not been described in literature. For this method, I have analyzed its efficiency to show its superiority over the (conventional) splitting method.
The way that a system approaches a designated rare event set is called the system's large deviation behavior. Toward the end of gaining insight about the relation of system behavior and the efficiency of IS simulation, I quantify the large deviation behavior and its complexity.
This work indicates that the system's large deviation behavior has a significant impact on the efficiency of a simulation method
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Simulating Tail Probabilities in GI/GI.1 Queues and Insurance Risk Processes with Subexponentail Distributions
Full text linkThis paper deals with estimating small tail probabilities of thesteady-state waiting time in a GI/GI/1 queue with heavy-tailed (subexponential) service times. The problem of estimating infinite horizon ruin probabilities in insurance risk processes with heavy-tailed claims can be transformed into the same framework. It is well-known that naive simulation is ineffective for estimating small probabilities and special fast simulation techniques like importance sampling, multilevel splitting, etc., have to be used. Though there exists a vast amount of literature on the rare event simulation of queuing systems and networks with light-tailed distributions, previous fast simulation techniques for queues with subexponential service times have been confined to the M/GI/1 queue. The general approach is to use the Pollaczek-Khintchine transformation to convert the problem into that of estimating the tail distribution of a geometric sum of independent subexponential random variables. However, no such useful transformation exists when one goes from Poisson arrivals to general interarrival-time distributions. We describe and evaluate an approach that is based on directly simulating the random walk associated with the waiting-time process of the GI/GI/1 queue, using a change of measure called delayed subexponential twisting -an importance sampling idea recently developed and found useful in the context of M/GI/1 heavy-tailed simulations
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