1,720,984 research outputs found
Seismic coupling for the Aegean - Anatolian region
Full text linkSeismic coupling helps define how large the earthquake potential of a region is, as well as the presence of asperities along plate zones. This work seeks to provide an improved picture of the seismic coupling for the Aegean-Anatolian region by taking advantage of extensive seismic and geodetic datasets. To estimate coupling, we compiled a series of by-products that are specific ingredients also for seismic hazard studies. With these by-products, we found that the seismogenic thickness is thinner (10–15 km) or thicker (20 to 30 km) to the east and to the west, respectively and even deeper along the Hellenic subduction zone. The b-value ranges between 0.9 and 1.1 for the entire area with high values concentrated at locations of Late Miocene to -recent volcanism whereas low b-values (<0.8) concentrate along most of the Northern Anatolian fault zone that may suggests stress accumulation. Seismic coupling is low (<35%) or intermediate (35% - 70%) in most of the area, while the Karliova triple junction, on a N-S-oriented belt along the boundary between western and central Anatolia, and the southeastern Peloponnese are fully coupled, suggesting a full seismic release of the entire deformation budget. An intermediate value of seismic coupling is observed for the eastern and central segments of the Northern and Eastern Anatolian Fault zones, for part of the Hellenic volcanic arc, the Kefalonia Transform Fault and the Corinth gulf active faults. Considering historical earthquake data, these intermediate coupling values indicate either aseismic deformation or catalog incompleteness. Furthermore, the time period since large magnitude earthquakes clearly raises the possibility of impending earthquakes on the Northern and Eastern Anatolian Fault zones. A broad seismic gap is evidenced along the Hellenic subduction zone, because of the reduced coupling and the absence of ~M8 earthquakes in the last 700 years, at least. We conclude that in most of the central Aegean Sea aseismic deformation prevails as suggested by the small value of coupling and the modest seismic release over the last millennium
Probabilistic forecasting of hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity using an injection-rate driven etas model
No full textThe development of robust forecasts of human-induced seismicity is highly desirable to mitigate the effects of disturbing or damaging earthquakes. We assess the performance of a well-established statistical model, the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, with a catalog of ∼93;000 microearthquakes observed at the Preston New Road (PNR, United Kingdom) unconventional shale gas site during, and after hydraulic fracturing of the PNR-1z and PNR-2 wells. Because ETAS was developed for slower loading rate tectonic seismicity, to account for seismicity caused by pressurized fluid, we also generate three modified ETAS with background rates proportional to injection rates. We find that (1) the standard ETAS captures low seismicity between and after injections but is outperformed by the modified model during high-seismicity periods, and (2) the injection-rate driven ETAS substantially improves when the forecast is calibrated on sleeve-specific pumping data. We finally forecast out-of-sample the PNR-2 seismicity using the average response to injection observed at PNR-1z, achieving better predictive skills than the in-sample standard ETAS. The insights from this study contribute toward producing informative seismicity forecasts for real-time decision making and risk mitigation techniques during unconventional shale gas development
Improving Physics-Based Aftershock Forecasts During the 2016–2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade
Full text linkThe 2016–2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence is a recent example of how damages from subsequent aftershocks can exceed those caused by the initial mainshock. Recent studies reveal that physics-based aftershock forecasts present comparable skills to their statistical counterparts, but their performance remains a controversial subject. Here we employ physics-based models that combine the elasto-static stress transfer with rate-and-state friction laws, and short-term statistical Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models to describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the earthquake cascade. We then track the absolute and relative model performance using log-likelihood statistics for a 1-year horizon after the 24 August 2016 Mw = 6.0 Amatrice earthquake. We perform a series of pseudoprospective experiments by producing seven classes of Coulomb rate-state (CRS) forecasts with gradual increase in data input quality and model complexity. Our goal is to investigate the influence of data quality on the predictive power of physics-based models and to assess the comparative performance of the forecasts in critical time windows, such as the period following the 26 October Visso earthquakes leading to the 30 October Mw = 6.5 Norcia mainshock. We find that (1) the spatiotemporal performance of the basic CRS models is poor and progressively improves as more refined data are used, (2) CRS forecasts are about as informative as ETAS when secondary triggering effects from M3+ earthquakes are included together with spatially variable slip models, spatially heterogeneous receiver faults, and optimized rate-and-state parameters. After the Visso earthquakes, the more elaborate CRS model outperforms ETAS highlighting the importance of the static stress transfer for operational earthquake forecasting.</p
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Crustal permeability changes inferred from seismic attenuation: Impacts on multi-mainshock sequences
No full textWe use amplitude ratios from narrowband-filtered earthquake seismograms to measure variations of seismic attenuation over time, providing unique insights into the dynamic state of stress in the Earth’s crust at depth. Our dataset from earthquakes of the 2016–2017 Central Apennines sequence allows us to obtain high-resolution time histories of seismic attenuation (frequency band: 0.5–30 Hz) characterized by strong earthquake dilatation-induced fluctuations at seismogenic depths, caused by the cumulative elastic stress drop after the sequence, as well as damage-induced ones at shallow depths caused by energetic surface waves. Cumulative stress drop causes negative dilatation, reduced permeability, and seismic attenuation, whereas strong-motion surface waves produce an increase in crack density, and so in permeability and seismic attenuation. In the aftermath of the main shocks of the sequence, we show that the M ≥ 3.5 earthquake occurrence vs. time and distance is consistent with fluid diffusion: diffusion signatures are associated with changes in seismic attenuation during the first days of the Amatrice, Visso-Norcia, and Capitignano sub-sequences. We hypothesize that coseismic permeability changes create fluid diffusion pathways that are at least partly responsible for triggering multi-mainshock seismic sequences. Here we show that anelastic seismic attenuation fluctuates coherently with our hypothesis
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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