109 research outputs found
Efficient Revenue Sharing and Upper-Level Governments: Theory and Application to Germany
No full textThis paper explores conditions under which revenue-sharing grants will achieve efficiency. We develop a general formulation of the state's decision problem of implementing a set of local policies. A theoretical analysis shows that if the state government pursues own policies and cannot levy lump-sum contributions from local jurisdictions, it will implement revenue-sharing grants that induce local governments to raise local tax rates. A subsequent empirical analysis of local tax policy in Germany suggests that attempts by state-level governments to extract fiscal resources from local governments result in higher tax rates at the local level. (JEL: H71, H77
Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area
No full textThe study looks at primary expenditure developments in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries for the period 1999-2009. It compares actual expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on expenditure rules since the start of EMU. It also calculates the implications for debt trends. It finds that, all sample countries except Germany applied expansionary expenditure policies. This resulted in much higher expenditure and debt paths compared to a counterfactual neutral expenditure stance. Simple and prudent rules-based spending policies could have led to much safer fiscal positions much more in line with the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact rules. JEL Classification: E17, E61, E65, H50, H60Expenditure policies, expenditure rules, fiscal stance, public debt, sustainability
The impact of fiscal equalization on local expenditure policies : theory and evidence from Germany
No full textThis paper uses a simple model of fiscal competition in taxes and public inputs among local jurisdictions to analyze the incentive effects of fiscal equalization transfers. We find that a budget-compensated increase in the contribution rate to a system of fiscal equalization not only induces higher local tax rates (e.g., Koethenbuerger, 2002; Bucovetsky and Smart, 2006) but also lower budgetary shares of the public input to production. The subsequent empirical analysis is based on a rich data set of German municipalities and provides strong evidence for the existence of an incentive of fiscal equalization transfers on local expenditure policies
Spending dynamics in euro area countries : composition and determinants
No full textThis study analyses the composition and main determinants of spending dynamics in selected euro area countries between 1999 and 2013. To assess the stance of public spending policies we use the indicators developed in Hauptmeier et al. (2011). Our results indicate that the overall expansionary expenditure stance in 1999-2009 was mainly driven by public consumption. Transfers and subsidies on the other hand were mostly expansionary after 2008 while public investment had boomed just before the crisis and turned restrictive during the crisis. The overall policy stance turned restrictive in 2010 and strongly so in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Most consolidation efforts focussed on public investment and on public consumption and while transfers and subsidies were largely spared. Our econometric analysis, which covers the 2000-2013 period, shows a significantly pro-cyclical stance of public consumption which was driving overall spending dynamics. The degree of spending expansion tends to be negatively affected by the size of government debt and the presence of effective fiscal rules. On the other hand, EMU-related interest savings coincided with an expansionary expenditure stance. Revenue windfalls and shortfalls exerted a significant effect on government investment spending
Identifying the effects of government spending shocks with and without expected reversal: an approach based on U.S. real-time data
No full textThis paper investigates how expectations about future government spending affect the transmission of fiscal policy shocks. We study the effects of two different types of government spending shocks in the United States: (i) spending shocks that are accompanied by an expected reversal of public spending growth below trend; (ii) spending shocks that are accompanied by expectations of future spending growth above trend. We use the Ramey (2011)’s time series of military build-ups to measure exogenous spending shocks, and deviations of forecasts of public spending with respect to past trends, evaluated in real-time, to distinguish shocks into these two categories. Based on a structural VAR analysis, our results suggest that shocks associated with an expected spending reversal exert expansionary effects on the economy and accelerate the correction of the initial increase in public debt. Shocks associated with expected spending growth above trend, instead, are characterized by a contraction in aggregate demand and a more persistent increase in public debt. The main channel of transmission seems to run through agents’ perception of the future macroeconomic environment. JEL Classification: E62, E65, H20Fiscal multipliers, Government spending shocks, real-time data, Spending reversal, Survey of Professional Forecasters
Identifying the Effects of Government Spending Shocks with and without Expected Reversal: an Approach Based on U.S. Real-Time Data
No full textThis paper investigates how expectations about future government spending affect the transmission of fiscal policy shocks. We study the effects of two different types of government spending shocks in the United States: (i) spending shocks that are accompanied by an expected reversal of public spending growth below trend; (ii) spending shocks that are accompanied by expectations of future spending growth above trend. We use the Ramey (2011)’s time series of military build-ups to measure exogenous spending shocks, and deviations of forecasts of public spending with respect to past trends, evaluated in real-time, to distinguish shocks into these two categories. Based on a structural VAR analysis, our results suggest that shocks associated with an expected spending reversal exert expansionary effects on the economy and accelerate the correction of the initial increase in public debt. Shocks associated with expected spending growth above trend, instead, are characterized by a contraction in aggregate demand and a more persistent increase in public debt. The main channel of transmission seems to run through agents’ perception of the future macroeconomic environment.Government spending shocks, Survey of Professional Forecasters, Real-time data, Spending reversal, Fiscal multipliers.
The impact of numerical expenditure rules on budgetary discipline over the cycle
No full textWe study the impact of numerical expenditure rules on the propensity of governments to deviate from expenditure targets in response to surprises in cyclical conditions. Theoretical considerations suggest that due to political fragmentation in the budgetary process expenditure policy might be prone to a pro-cyclical bias. However, this tendency may be mitigated by numerical expenditure rules. These hypotheses are tested against data from a panel of EU Member States. Our key findings are that (i) deviations between actual and planned government expenditure are positively related to unanticipated changes in the output gap, and (ii) numerical expenditure rules reduce this pro-cyclical bias. Moreover, the pro-cyclical spending bias is found to be particularly pronounced for spending items with a high degree of budgetary flexibility. JEL Classification: C23, E62, H50expenditure rules, fiscal discipline, spending bias, stabilisation
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