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Essays in Macroeconomics and Labor Supply
Full text linkIn this dissertation, I study the role of labor supply in macroeconomic fluctations and the movement of employment in response to these fluctuations. The first chapter is a theoretical and empirical study of the role of firm-specific labor supply in amplifying business cycles. The second chapter focuses on measuring the aggregate labor supply elasticity at the extensive margin, using a novel survey approach. Finally, in the third chapter I measure the effects of government policies in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment, using decentralized implementation of these policies.In the first chapter, I assess the role of labor market monopsony---finitely-elastic firm-specific labor supply---in the context of a New Keynesian model. First, I modify a basic New Keynesian model to include firm-specific labor and calibrate the labor supply elasticities to micro-empirical estimates. Consistent with this mechanism serving as a source of real rigidity, firm-specific labor substantially reduces the slope of the Phillips curve relative to the perfectly competitive labor market benchmark. However, this depends strongly on the elasticity chosen, and requires distinguishing the firm-specific and aggregate labor supply elasticities, which previous work often fails to do. Second, I provide a cross-sectional empirical test for this mechanism. I estimate the firm-specific labor supply elasticity by industry in the Survey of Income and Program Participation using a dynamic monopsony model. I then estimate industry responses to monetary policy shocks. Contrary to the New Keynesian model, I find no evidence that industry differences in firm-specific labor supply elasticities lead to different industry price responses to monetary policy shocks. My results do not support the theory that firm-specific labor is a source of real rigidity.The second chapter is an innovative investigation into measuring the aggregate labor supply curve using survey methods. I measure extensive-margin labor supply (employment) preferences in two representative surveys of the U.S. and German populations. In the survey, I elicit ``reservation raises'': the percent wage change that renders a given individual indifferent between employment and nonemployment. It is equal to their reservation wage divided by their actual, or potential, wage. The reservation raise distribution is the nonparametric aggregate labor supply curve. Locally, the curve exhibits large short-run elasticities above 3, consistent with business cycle evidence. For larger upward shifts, arc elasticities shrink towards 0.5, consistent with quasi-experimental evidence from tax holidays. Existing models fail to match this nonconstant, asymmetric curve. Finally, in the third chapter, I investigate the labor market ramifications of government-imposed lockdowns in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. I use the high-frequency, decentralized implementation of Stay-at-Home orders in the U.S. to disentangle the labor market effects of SAH orders from the general economic disruption wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic. I find that each week of SAH exposure increased a state's weekly initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims by 1.9% of its employment level relative to other states. A back-of-the-envelope calculation implies that, of the 17 million UI claims between March 14 and April 4, only 4 million were attributable to SAH orders. I present a currency union model to provide conditions for mapping this estimate to aggregate employment losses
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Essays in Household Finance and Empirical Macroeconomics
Full text linkThis dissertation is composed of three chapters that cover a broad range of policy-relevant topics in household finance and empirical macroeconomics. The first chapter includes my job market paper, titled "Mortgage Forbearance and Financial Distress in the Long Run," which examines the causal effect of mortgage payment pauses during the Corona virus pandemic on household financial stability, measured in terms of mortgage performance and revolving credit stability. Using data from 500,000 consumer credit reports, I study the causal effects of mortgage forbearance under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act on household financial stability. Leveraging quasi-random variation in mortgage servicers’ forbearance provision, I identify significant reductions in mortgage delinquency rates—up to 5 percentage points—and foreclosure rates by 1 percentage point, persisting three years post-forbearance. Additionally, the program had beneficial spillover effects on revolving credit stability, reducing credit card delinquencies by 2 percentage points and utilization rates by roughly 15 percentage points relative to the pre-pandemic period. Upon exiting forbearance, borrowers not only avoided financial ‘rebound effects,’ but also sustained improved financial stability for more than two years following the policy’s implementation.The second chapter, coauthored with Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Olivier Coibion, and Michael Weber, explores how survey design affects the measurement of household macroeconomic expectations. We show that responses—particularly inflation expectations—are highly sensitive to question wording, even within a single 15-minute survey. These discrepancies raise concerns for policymakers relying on such data and underscore the need for further research to understand the underlying sources of measurement error.The third chapter, written in collaboration with Ryan Banerjee, Fabrizio Zampolli, and Aaron Mehrotra at the Bank for International Settlements, examines how the inflationary effects of fiscal deficits depend on a country's prevailing fiscal-monetary policy regime. Using a panel of advanced economies over four decades, we show that inflation-at-risk rises significantly under fiscally-led regimes. We calibrate an inflation-at-risk model and find that post-COVID-19 fiscal stimulus outcomes are broadly consistent with the predictions of fiscally-led regimes, highlighting the importance of institutional context in shaping macroeconomic risks
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
No full textWe have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
Author-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.
No full textAuthor-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.</p
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