394 research outputs found
Prudent Rationalizability in Generalized Extensive-Form Games
No full textWe define an extensive-form analogue of iterated admissibility, called Prudent Rationalizability (PR). In each round of the procedure, for each information set of a player a surviving strategy of hers is required to be rational vis-a-vis a belief system with a full-support belief on the opponents' previously surviving strategies that reach that information set. Somewhat surprisingly, prudent rationalizable strategies may not refine the set of Extensive-Form Rationalizable (EFR) strategies (Pearce 1984). However, we prove that the paths induced by PR strategy-profiles (weakly) refine the set of paths induced by EFR strategies. PR applies also to generalized extensive-form games which model mutual unawareness of actions (Heifetz, Meier and Schipper, 2011a). We demonstrate the applicability of PR in the analysis of verifiable communication, and show that it yields the same, full information unraveling prediction as does the unique sequential equilibrium singled out by Milgrom and Roberts (1986); yet, we also show that under unawareness full unraveling might fail.Prudent rationalizability, caution, extensive-form rationalizability, extensive-form games, unawareness, verifiable communication
A Canonical Model for Interactive Unawareness
No full textHeifetz, Meier and Schipper (2005) introduced a generalized state-space model that allows for non-trivial unawareness among several individuals and strong properties of knowledge. We show that this generalized state-space model arises naturally if states consist of maximally consistent sets of formulas in an appropriate logical formulation
A Canonical Model for Interactive Unawareness
No full textHeifetz, Meier and Schipper (2005) introduced a generalized state-space model that allows for non-trivial unawareness among several individuals and strong properties of knowledge. We show that this generalized state-space model arises naturally if states consist of maximally consistent sets of formulas in an appropriate logical formulation.unawareness; awareness; knowledge; interactive epistemology; modal logic; lack of conception; bounded perception
A Canonical Model for Interactive Unawareness
No full textHeifetz, Meier and Schipper (2005) introduced a generalized state-space model that allows for non-trivial unawareness among several individuals and strong properties of knowledge. We show that this generalized state-space model arises naturally if states consist of maximally consistent sets of formulas in an appropriate logical formulation.unawareness, awareness, knowledge, interactive epistemology, modal logic, lack of conception, bounded perception
Preference-Dependent Unawareness
No full textMorris (1996, 1997) introduced preference-based definitions of knowledge of belief in standard state-space structures. This paper extends this preference-based approach to unawareness structures (Heifetz, Meier, and Schipper, 2006, 2008). By defining unawareness and knowledge in terms of preferences over acts in unawareness structures and showing their equivalence to the epistemic notions of unawareness and knowledge, we try to build a bridge between decision theory and epistemic logic. Unawareness of an event is behaviorally characterized as the event being null and its negation being null.Unawareness, awareness, knowledge, preferences, subjective expected utility theory, decision theory, null event
Speculative Trade under Unawareness: The Infinite Case
No full textWe generalize the "No-trade" theorem for finite unawareness belief structures in Heifetz, Meier, and Schipper (2009) to the infinite case.Awareness; unawareness; speculation; trade; agreement; common prior; common certainty
Speculative Trade under Unawareness: The Infinite Case
No full textWe generalize the ``No-speculative-trade" theorem for finite unawareness belief structures in Heifetz, Meier, and Schipper (2013) to the infinite case.Awareness, unawareness, speculation, trade, agreement, common prior, common certainty
Awareness-Dependent Subjective Expected Utility
No full textWe develop awareness-dependent subjective expected utility by taking unawareness structures introduced in Heifetz, Meier, and Schipper (2006, 2008, 2011a) as primitives in the Anscombe-Aumann approach to subjective expected utility. We observe that a decision maker is unaware of an event if and only if her choices reveal that the event is ``null'' and the negation of the event is ``null''. Moreover, we characterize ``impersonal'' expected utility that is behaviorally indistinguishable from awareness-dependent subject expected utility and assigns probability zero to some subsets of states that are not necessarily events. We discuss in what sense probability zero can model unawareness.unawareness, awareness, unforeseen contingencies, null, probability zero, subjective probability, Anscombe-Aumann, small worlds
Revealed Unawareness
No full textI develop awareness-dependent subjective expected utility by taking unawareness structures introduced in Heifetz, Meier, and Schipper (2006, 2008, 2009) as primitives in the Anscombe-Aumann approach to subjective expected utility. I observe that a decision maker is unaware of an event if and only if her choices reveal that the event is "null" and the negation of the event is "null". Moreover, I characterize "impersonal" expected utility that is behaviorally indistinguishable from awareness-dependent subject expected utility and assigns probability zero to some subsets of states that are not necessarily events. I discuss in what sense impersonal expected utility can not represent unawareness.Unawareness, awareness, unforeseen contingencies, null, zero probability, subjective expected utility, Anscombe-Aumann, small worlds, extensionality of acts, event exchangeability
Preference-Based Unawareness
No full textMorris (1996, 1997) introduced preference-based definitions of knowledge of belief in standard state-space structures. This paper extends this preference-based approach to unawareness structures (Heifetz, Meier, and Schipper, 2006, 2008). By defining unawareness and knowledge in terms of preferences over acts in unawareness structures and showing their equivalence to the epistemic notions of unawareness and knowledge, we try to build a bridge between decision theory and epistemic logic. Unawareness of an event is behaviorally characterized as the event being null and its negation being null.unawareness, awareness, knowledge, preferences, subjective expected utility theory, decision theory, null event
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