1,721,036 research outputs found
THE 2009 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS IN ITALY: THE ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN AND THE PARTIES' STRATEGIES
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Estimating floating voters: a comparison between the ecological inference and the survey methods
No full textThere are two main approaches to estimating the proportion of the electorate who are floating voters: the survey method and the ecological estimate method. Both the methods have their advantages and their problems. The main difficulties with the survey method are the coverage of the sample and the problems introduced by reliance on the quality of memory of the subjects. Ecological estimates have different problems, the principal of which is known as the ecological fallacy. The aim of this paper is to assess whether the survey and ecological estimates of voter swing between two elections are significantly different. For this purpose I will consider the 2006 and 2008 Italian Parliamentary elections. Given the short temporal gap between these two elections, both the methods should give reliable estimates, as the shorter the time between the two elections, the fewer the problems which will be encountered by subjects recalling the party they voted for in the previous one, and the fewer the changes which will have taken place in the composition of the population between the two elections. The ecological data I will employ comprise all the votes cast in both of the elections under consideration (2006 and 2008), at the polling station level. In Italy there are about 60,000 polling stations, and I will analyse the data from these using the Goodman Model. The survey data has been provided by Italian National Election Studies (ITANES), and consists of a large representative sample, obtained by interviews conducted by CATI
Replication Data for: Tracing the electorate of the Movimento Cinque Stelle: An ecological inference analysis
No full textItalian Parliamentary elections 2008 and 2013
Source: Ministero dell’Interno – Dipartimento degli Affari Interni e Territoriali – Servizi Elettoral
The nationalization of electoral change in a geographical perspective: the case of Italy (2006–2008)
No full textThis paper assesses the nationalization of electoral change in a setting of major changes at the party level. After discussing the theoretical difference between the configuration of the electorate and its movement, the italian case is examined. In order to check whether strategic voting dynamics took place between the 2006 and 2008 italian parliamentary elections, the swing voters’ estimates are obtained. After having shown that the italian electorate behaved strategically, we investigated whether the swing had a national or a territorial pattern. The findings show that the switching occurred in italy between the 2006 and the 2008 elections can be considered national
Replication Data for: Tracing the electorate of the Movimento Cinque Stelle: An ecological inference analysis
No full textItalian Parliamentary elections 2008 and 2013
Source: Ministero dell’Interno – Dipartimento degli Affari Interni e Territoriali – Servizi Elettoral
Aggregation Level Matters: Evidence from French Electoral Data
No full textThis paper, issued from the Cartelec project, raises a methodological issue regarding ecological inference. Studying abstention in two recent French elections in the Parisian agglomeration, a linear regression is launched on three different levels of aggregation: from the finest one (polling station), through cities, to electoral districts (circonscriptions). Tests on multicollinearity clearly indicate that employing the finest level of aggregation allows more variables to be significant, enhances the explanatory power of the model, and improves the collinearity amongst the dependent variables
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