14 research outputs found
Oil price shocks, exchange rates and output performance in Africa's oil exporting countries.
No full textDoctoral Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.This thesis examines oil price shocks, exchange rates and output performance in a sample of Africa’s Oil-Exporting Countries (AOECs) (Algeria, Egypt, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria). Using quarterly data from 1980 to 2018, it is presented in three separate, but interrelated essays. The first essay presented in chapter three constructs a seven-variable Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (PSVAR) model with the imposition of short-run restrictions to examine the oil price shocks transmission mechanism. In the same framework, trends in output growth and oil prices are examined and it is established that oil price shocks have statistically significant impacts on output and exchange rates in AOECs. The essay concludes that exchange rates is the channel through which oil price shocks are transmitted to the economy. It is thus recommended that stabilizing exchange rates is vital for sound economic performance in AOECs.
The second essay which is presented in chapter four forecasts the AOECs’ exchange rates. Using quarterly data covering 1980 to 2018, it employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The regression is estimated using data from 1980-2015 and forecasting data from 2016-2018. The forecasting model, which uses various forecasting evaluation criteria, supports the suitability of the model to forecast exchange rates. Furthermore, the results show that forecast combination methods may have a good predicting power on exchange rates. Combined forecasting is therefore recommended as a way to achieve predictive forecasting accuracy in AOECs.
Employing a Panel VAR model, the third essay investigates the asymmetric relationship between oil price and output. Using quarterly data from 1980 to 2018, oil prices are decomposed into positive and negative components to examine how output responds. The findings reveal an asymmetric relationship between oil prices and output. They show that, on average, positive oil price shocks positively impact output and this effect remains significant in the long run. The reverse is observed in negative oil price shocks. In terms of magnitude, the study finds that negative oil price shocks impact output at more than double the rate of positive oil price shocks. The results also reveal that low output in AOECs is associated with uncertain variations in oil prices and that an increase in oil prices results in increased inflation, which could result in higher levels of unemployment. This finding is associated with the inadequacy of refining capacity in the AOECs, causing them to import refined fuel at a high cost. It is thus established that the economies of the AOECs are vulnerable to negative oil price shocks that negatively affect exchange rates, while positive oil price shocks positively affect the cost of production. It is on this basis that the study recommends that AOECs should build sufficient external reserves to minimize the impact of negative oil price shocks on exchange rates
Global FDI Inflow and Its Implication across Economic Income Groups
No full textForeign direct investment (FDI) as a driver of growth is important in today’s globalized economy. It is extremely difficult for economies to grow sustainably without economic interactions outside their borders. However, there has been a debate on the impact of FDI inflow on economic expansion. Hence, this study investigated the influence of FDI on economic growth for a selection of 200 economies around the world for the period 1990–2018. We subdivided the sample into World Bank income group clusters to aid comparison across income blocs. The study employed panel estimation techniques including pooled ordinary least squares (POLS), dynamic panel estimation with fixed-effects and random-effects and generalized method of moments (GMM). The study found that FDI, debt stock and official development assistance are promoters of growth in the selected countries—although debt stock weakly impacts economic growth. In contrast, trade openness and exchange rates had a mixed (negative and positive) influence on economic growth. The study suggests that the creation of a conducive business environment and economic policies will attract FDI inflows. Additionally, borrowing from external sources could be minimized despite its perceived positive influence on growth to achieve financial independence.publishedVersio
SUPPLIER-INDUCED DEMAND AND HEALTHCARE IN LOKOJA
No full textThis study investigates the existence of supplier-induced demand for healthcare in Nigeria’s healthcare system where private healthcare provision and fee-for-service mode of payment are order of the day. Using primary data sourced from 379 respondents, the study estimates Linear Probability Model (LPM), to establish the relationship between supplier inducement and demand for healthcare. Findings from the study revealed that there is no statistically significant evidence to suggest the existence of supplier-induced demand for healthcare among the privately-owned hospitals in Lokoja. However, the study finds education and enrolment in health insurance to be negatively and statistically significantly correlated with supplier inducement. Having high education and enrolment in the health insurance scheme curtail the probability of receiving dubious care. Therefore, this research recommends, among others, that the government should make high education more accessible to the citizens by way of subsidizing tuition fees charged by universities, and providing soft education loans to eligible citizens. It recommends further that governments at all levels should provide health insurance for all
Assessment of the Impact of Government Revenue Mobilisation on Economic Growth in Nigeria
No full textInadequate revenue generation impedes economic growth. It retards the overall economic growth and behavior. It delays government decision formulation on expenditure. The issue has lacked attention from academics. Consequently, this study focuses on the relationship between revenue generation and economic growth in Nigeria. It employed time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) from 1981-2018. Contributing to the debate on the revenue mobilization and economic growth nexus, the study used multiple regression to estimate the impact of government revenue mobilization on economic growth in Nigeria. Findings revealed that domestic debts and non-oil (NOIL) revenue positively and significantly impact economic growth while external debts and oil revenue revealed otherwise. Based on the findings, the study concluded that government revenue impacts economic growth. Consequently, the study recommends economic diversification through strategic programs aimed at enhancing growth rather than remaining a mono-economy. Furthermore, it recommends that the government should review the existing revenue mobilization strategy– especially the multifarious non-oil revenue bases to ensure improved revenue remittances. The study also recommended the need to formulate policies that will guarantee better utilization of both domestic and foreign loans with the aim of increasing productivity and enhancing revenue mobilization. It is also recommended that borrowing should be considered a last resort to fund government projects, and where it is unavoidable such borrowing should be limited to domestic debt (DD)
Assessment of the Impact of Government Revenue Mobilisation on Economic Growth in Nigeria
No full textInadequate revenue generation impedes economic growth. The issue has lacked attention from academics. Therefore, this study focuses on the relationship between revenue generation and economic growth in Nigeria. It employed time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) from 1981-2018. The study used multiple regression to estimate the impact of government revenue mobilization on economic growth in Nigeria. Findings revealed that domestic debts and non-oil revenue positively and significantly impact economic growth, while external debts and oil revenue were otherwise. The study concluded that government revenue impacts economic growth. Consequently, the study recommends economic diversification through strategic programs to enhance growth rather than remaining a mono-economy. Furthermore, it recommends that the government review the existing revenue mobilization strategy– especially the diverse non-oil revenue bases to ensure improved revenue remittances. The study also recommended formulating policies that will guarantee better utilization of domestic and foreign loans to increase productivity and enhance revenue mobilization. It is also recommended that borrowing be considered a last resort to fund government projects, and where it is unavoidable, such borrowing should be limited to domestic debt
GOVERNMENT HEALTH EXPENDITURE AND EDUCATIONAL OUTCOME IN NIGERIA: INTERROGATING THE NEXUS
No full textThe study examined the nexus between government health expenditure and educational outcome in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. To achieve this objective the study collected time series data on the relevant variables namely: government health expenditure, school enrolment ratio which was used as the proxy for educational outcome, infant mortality which chosen because it received the direct effect of a change in government health expenditure and the Gross Domestic Product of Nigeria. The study conducted a stationarity test using the Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root test and a long run relationship was tested with the aid of the Johansen test for integration. The study found all the variables to be stationary at first difference while thevariables were conitegrated at 5% level of significance. The Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) was used to examine the interconnectedness of the variables and their relationships.It was however discovered that health expenditure in Nigeria had a positiveimpact on educational outcome.The findings of the paper revealed that government health expenditure can have positive impacts on school enrolment ratioin Nigeria depending on how significant the amount spent on the health sector is. This implies that as health expenditure rises, school enrolment ratio rises. The study recommended among other things that a significant portion of the Nigeria’s budget should be allocated to the health sector to generate a positive change in the educational sector
The Link between Government Health Expenditure and Health Outcome in Nigeria, 1981-2019
No full textThis study examines the relationship between government health expenditure and health outcome in Nigeria using time series data on infant mortality, government health expenditure, school enrollment ratio and the gross domestic product for the period covering 1981 to 2020. The study sourced data from the World Bank data base and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin. Infant mortality rate was used as a proxy for health outcome based on data availability and the literature. As dictated by the data, the study used Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) to analyse the relationship between government health expenditure and health outcome in Nigeria for the period under study. The variables in the model were all integrated of order one and were cointegrated using the Johansen’s cointegration test. Government health expenditure is found to have a negative relationship with infant mortality in Nigeria; an indication that an increase in health expenditure has the tendency to decrease infant mortality in Nigeria. The study finds school enrollment to be significant. Therefore, the study recommends among other things that government expenditure should be increased to diminish infant mortality as well as enhance school enrolment
Agricultural Productivity and Poverty Alleviation in Nigeria
No full textThe study is designed to examine the relationship between agricultural productivity and poverty alleviation in Nigeria from 1981 to 2020. To achieve this objective, secondary data were collected on the relevant variables namely per capita income, which was used as a proxy for poverty, agricultural output, agricultural loans to individuals, and the real gross domestic product. The data used were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the World Bank database. The study adopted the Philips Perron test in testing for stationarity and the variables had a mixed order of integration. Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) was adopted in carrying out the analyses after cointegration was established using the ARDL bounds test. The result of the study showed that an increase in agricultural output improved per capita income, which reduced the level of poverty. The model was also found to have no autocorrelation implying that the findings of the study are suitable for predictions and forecast. The study concluded that poverty can be alleviated through the improvement of the agricultural sector. The study also recommended among other things that the government should embark on policies that can strengthen the agricultural sector in Nigeria
Does Entrepreneurship Education Determine Entrepreneurial Motivation among University Graduates?: An Empirical Investigation
No full textThe study seeks to know if the acquired knowledge from entrepreneurship education offered in the university enhances and moderates entrepreneurship competencies on entrepreneurial motivation.
The study employs both qualitative interviews and a cross-sectional survey of a sample of 300 graduates cutting across different faculties.
The study finds that entrepreneurship education is a requisite to entrepreneurship motivation. It also reveals that entrepreneurship motivation could be predicted through entrepreneurship competencies. Contrary to the common belief that entrepreneurship education is a requisite to entrepreneurship motivation and competencies, this study reveals otherwise. It shows that entrepreneurship education does not account for graduate’s motivation to becoming entrepreneurs.
The study recommends that the entrepreneurship education should be directed towards developing the psychology of graduates along the path of entrepreneurship to boost entrepreneurial motivation, skills, and critical thought.
The study contributes to research on entrepreneurship. Specifically, it seeks to find out if the acquired knowledge from entrepreneurship education influences entrepreneurship competencies on entrepreneurial motivation
Investigating Oil Prices and Exchange Rates Nexus in Nigeria: ARDL Approach
No full textThis paper examined the long-run association of real exchange rates, real oil prices, interest rate, inflation and external debt in Nigeria. It used monthly data for the period, 1980-2017. The model employed in the study started with testing for the existence of unit roots which were found to be combination of orders I(0) and I(1), fulfilling the ARDL condition. Also, using various cointegration tests, the study reveals that cointegration exists among the selected variables. The granger causality test found that oil price positively and significantly impacted exchange rates in Nigeria, suggesting that a rise in global oil prices resulted into exchange rate appreciation. In a similar way, increases in oil prices triggered inflation. In view of this, it is suggested that appropriate policy measure be considered during oil price increases to mitigate unfavourable movement in exchange rates
