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    Viability of a futures and options market in the electric power sector in Colombia

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    En el mundo los Mercados de activos tangibles e intangibles, se ven afectados por la incertidumbre que está inmersa en la dispersión de los precios en función del tiempo, llamada volatilidad. Por tal motivo el concepto de riesgo es el principal componente para la toma de decisiones en el caso de inversión, financiamiento o simplemente la adquisición de bienes. Los Mercados de futuros y opciones que en el mundo nacen en el año 1650 en Japón, se han constituido como uno de los mecanismos más efectivos de cobertura. En Colombia el desarrollo de este tipo de mercados es muy incipiente. Con algunos avances en el sector agropecuario (Bolsa Agropecuaria) y algo en el sector financiero, otros sectores no han incursionado en este tipo de Mercados, a pesar de ser una necesidad inminente. El sector de la energía eléctrica en Colombia lleva años tratando de implementar un mercado organizado para la compra y venta de electricidad, donde se proporcione instrumentos de cobertura, libertada de actuación y equidad, pero a pesar de presentar avances muy significativos, solo con el montaje de una clearing house se podrá contar efectivamente con un Mercado de Opciones y Futuros en toda su magnitud. Esta tesis explora las variables críticas que se deben considerar, para que sea posible el montaje de una clearing house en el sector de la energía eléctrica en Colombia, y presenta soluciones en términos de las condiciones de operación, manejo de garantías, valoración de instrumentos, además del análisis de la posible sustitución de los métodos que se utilizan para asegurar la confiabilidad, como es el caso del Cargo por Capacidad. Todo lo anterior teniendo en cuenta que se debe presentar un periodo de transición entre el mercado actual y un Mercado de Opciones y futuros.Instituto Tecnológico de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey ITESMRESUMEN 9 ABSTRAT 10 1. INTRODUCCIÓN. 11 2. MARCO TEÓRICO 16 2.1. ESTUDIO DE MERCADOS INTERNACIONALES QUE EN 16 LA ACTUALIDAD HAN IMPLEMENTADO EL FOM. 2.2. ESTRUCTURA ACTUAL DEL MERCADO COLOMBIANO 29 2.3. ESTUDIO DE LA TECNEKCON ENERGY RISK ADVISORS. 59 2.4. ESTUDIO DE LA ESTRUCTURA PROPUESTA POR TERA. 62 2.5. ESTUDIO CONCEPTUAL DE LOS INSTRUMENTOS 64 DERIVADOS. 2.6. SIMULACIÓN DE LA ESTRUCTURA PROPUESTA POR 64 TERA. 2.7. COMPARACIÓN DEL CARGO POR CAPACIDAD Y EL 68 MERCADO DE OPCIONES. 2.8. SIMULACIÓN DEL FOM – JUEGO DE LA BOLSA. 69 2.9. SISTEMA ELECTRÓNICO DE CONTRATOS 70 NORMALIZADOS BILATERALES. SEC. 3. METODO DE INVESTIGACIÓN. 71 3.1. METODOLOGÍA GENERAL. 71 3.2. DESCRIPCIÓN DEL PROCESO DE INVESTIGACIÓN. 72 3.3. MÉTODOS Y TÉCNICAS DE RECOLECCIÓN DE 74 INFORMACIÓN. 3.4. MÉTODOS Y TÉCNICAS DE ANÁLISIS DE INFORMACIÓN. 77 4. RESULTADOS. 78 4.1. VIABILIDAD DEL MERCADO DE OPCIONES Y FUTUROS 78 EN EL SECTOR DE ENERGÍA ELÉCTRICA EN COLOMBIA. 4.2. MÉTODOS DE VALORACIÓN DE OPCIONES. 89 4.3. DEFINICIÓN DE PRECIOS DE EJERCICIO. 98 4.4. PERIODO DE TRANSICIÓN. 99 4.5. REEMPLAZO DEL CARGO POR CAPACIDAD POR 99 SISTEMA DE OPCIO NES. 5. CONCLUSIONES. 103 6. RECOMENDACIONES Y TRABAJOS FUTUROS. 105 6.1. RECOMENDACIONES. 105 6.2. TRABAJOS FUTUROS. 106 7. BIBLIOGRAFÍA. 107MaestríaThe markets of the tangible and intangible goods, are affected by uncertainty that is reflected in prices volatility. In consequence, analysis of risk is key to be considered to take investments and financial decisions. The Future and Options Markets was born in Japan in 1650 and today are an effective mechanism to hedging. In Colombia, the development of this kind of markets is very incipient. In the agricultural sector, have had some advances with the Bolsa Nacional Agropecuaria BNA. In the financial Sector exist some instruments operating in the last years in the currency market. The electrical sector is regulated by the Comision de Regulación de Energía y Gas CREG. In the recent years, the CREG had been working to define rules to creation of the Futures and Options Market in a Electrical Sector. In this intention, the CREG had contracted several studies with consultant like TERA and Mercados Energéticos Consortium, This dissertation analyze the conditions required to create this Future and Options Market in the Colombian Electrical Sector and presents the reasons to include a Clearing House to guarantee the operations in this market. In addition, is presented a methodology to value options based in a dynamic model of volatility.Modalidad Presencia

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed

    Variations on the Author

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    “Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship

    Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis

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    We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis

    Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts

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    We conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more sophisticated methods

    Author Index

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    koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist

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    We have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used

    Author Under Sail The Imagination of Jack London, 1893-1902

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    In Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Intro -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- 1. Spirit Truth -- 2. From Absorption to Theatricality and Back Again -- 3. "I Will Build a New Present" -- 4. Sons as Authors -- 5. Fathers as Publishers -- 6. The Daughter as Author -- 7. Lovers as Authors -- 8. At Sea with the Family -- 9. Yellow News, Yellow Stories -- 10. The Return Home -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index -- About Jay WilliamsIn Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, YYYY. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries
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