1,720,965 research outputs found
ANALYSIS OF THE ECB MONETARY POLICY MATCH FOR THE NEEDS OF THE EURO AREA COUNTRIES NEEDS
Get PDFAbstract. In this paper, using the Taylor rule (Taylor, 1993), the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy in 2000–2012, as well as individual interest rate needs of the euro area (EA) countries are analysed. It is assumed that the estimated Taylor rule interest rates are optimal for individual members. We have analysed whether the actual ECB interest rates and the calculated rates are different and have become more balanced towards individual countries’ needs. The work focuses attention on the last period (2008–2012) when the EA faced economic problems and an asymmetric shock. The analysis shows controversial results: on the one hand, the interest deviation mean decreases (just a little), but an increasing gap between individual needs can be seen: some countries are becoming increasingly divorced from the general EA needs. It makes them very vulnerable, and there is a risk that these countries in the face of asymmetric challenges can be “left behind” by the ECB focusing on the EA as a whole. Also, in this paper, the stationarity of the calculated deviations is analysed to help understand their nature. This approach is new, and the author is unaware of similar works. Analysis of the optimal interest rate dynamics has revealed that Germany needed the interest rates that were opposite to the needs of Spain and Greece and susceptible to divergence, so this led to the ECB difficulties in determining the proper interest for all countries’ needs. The EA as a currency area is most optimal for Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Italy, and the Netherlands from the interest rate setting perspective.Key words: the Taylor rule, optimal monetary policy, asymmetric shocks, optimal currency are
Analysis of the Development of the Unemployment Rate in Lithuania: Application of the SVAR Model
Get PDFThe paper analyses the dynamics of unemployment in Lithuania, using a structural vector autoregressive model (sVAR) with long-term restrictions proposed by Fabiani et al. (2001). In accordance with it, the unemployment rate is predetermined by economic shocks, some of them with long-term effects (structural) and some with short-term ones (cyclical). The greater part of changes in unemployment in the period of 2002 to 2014 were predetermined by cyclical shocks (of productivity and labour supply and demand). The cyclical unemployment, peaked in the years 2010 to 2011, amounted to ca. 6%. On the other hand, structural unemployment is slow to change, in the years of the economic boom (2006 to 2007) it amounted to ca. 8% (at the time, the cyclical unemployment was negative and the economy encountered overheating, while in 2014 structural unemployment was slightly higher and amounted to ca. 11%)
Assessing the impact of macroprudential measures: the case of the LTV limit in Lithuania
No full textIn this paper, we adopt a dual micro-and-macro simulation strategy to assess the impact of introducing (or changing) the LTV limit. Due to the nature of borrower-based macroprudential measures, to assess this impact we need to use borrower-level micro data. Tightening (or loosening) the LTV limit increases the share of borrowers constrained by the policy measure in question; thus, the overall impact depends on initial market conditions. We find that the introduction of an LTV limit of 85 % in 2011 had a modest short-term impact on economic activity because the new regulatory limit was non-binding for most borrowers at the time. We estimate that if the LTV limit would not have been introduced, the household loan portfolio would have grown on average 1.5 percentage points faster per year (over 2012-2014). This would have led to a 0.5 percentage point higher housing price growth and a 0.2 percentage point higher real GDP growth. When the macroprudential LTV limit is binding for a significant portion of borrowers, lowering the LTV limit at current market conditions has a much more pronounced effect. We show that if the LTV limit had been implemented at the end of 2004, it would have substantially helped in tempering the credit and housing boom, albeit at the cost of lowering economic growth. Keywords: Financial stability, Macroprudential policy, Borrower-based macroprudential policy instruments, LTV limit
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Lietuvos finansų krizių poveikio šalies ekonomikai palyginamasis tyrimas
No full textAkcentuojant darnaus ekonominio vystymosi prielaidas Lietuvoje ir siekiant tyrimų pagrindu kurti regioninę politiką, straipsnyje atliekamas Lietuvoje vykusių finansų krizių poveikio šalies ekonomikai palyginamasis tyrimas. Nors daugelis mokslininkų išskiria nemažai ekonominių rodiklių, kurie paveikti finansų krizių, tačiau vertinant finansų krizių poveikį šalies ekonomikai susiduriama su problemomis, nėra bendro modelio, kaip įvertinti finansų krizės poveikį šalies ekonomikai, nėra ir metodikos, kaip palyginti šį poveikį su kitų finansų krizių poveikiu šaliai. Finansų krizės poveikiui įvertinti būtina visas neigiamas poveikio „dalis“ sujungti į vieną visumą, t. y. reikia indekso, kuris parodytų, kokio masto neigiamas poveikis ištiko šalies ekonomiką dėl finansų krizės. Toks indeksas padėtų palyginti skirtingų tipų finansų krizių poveikį šaliai arba skirtingoms šalims. Siekiant atlikti Lietuvos finansų krizių poveikio šalies ekonomikai palyginamąjį tyrimą sudarytas finansų krizių neigiamo poveikio šalies ekonomikai nustatymo palyginamumo indeksas, kuris padeda palyginti skirtingų finansų krizių neigiamą poveikį skirtingoms šalims, nes sujungia visas neigiamo poveikio „dalis“. Sudarytame indekse atsiskleidžia finansų krizės poveikis šalies BVP, nedarbo lygiui, neto darbo užmokesčiui, darbo rinkai, kainų stabilumui (infliacijai), einamosios sąskaitos balansui, palūkanų normoms, bendram komercinių bankų paskolų portfeliui, kredito ir akcijų rinkai, biudžeto balansui. Siekiant patvirtinti sudaryto indekso reikšmės patikimumą ir nustatyti bazinę palyginimo indekso reikšmę, apskaičiuotas pačios didžiausios ekonomikos istorijoje finansų krizės („Didžiosios depresijos“ 1930 metų krizės, įvykusios JAV) indeksas. Gauta šio indekso reikšmė XFKPE = 402,19 laikoma patikima, pagal ją galima palyginti tarpusavyje išorės, vidaus, kompleksines, šalies, regiono ir globalias finansų krizes. Nustatyta, kad Lietuvoje 1990-2010 metų laikotarpiu įvyko trys Lietuvos ekonomiką neigiamai paveikusios finansų krizės: „Bankų krizė“ (1995) – vidinė šalies finansų krizė, „Rusijos finansų krizė“ (1998) – valiutinė krizė, paveikusi aplinkinį regioną, ir „Globali finansų krizė“ (2008), t. y. kompleksinė finansų krizė, vienu metu kilusi tiek Lietuvoje, tiek pasaulyje. Atlikus loginę finansų krizių, paveikusių Lietuvos ekonomiką, analizę, aiškėja, kad visos jos skirtingos (skiriasi finansų krizių tipai: dalis krizių yra vidinės, dalis išorinės). Skiriasi ir jų poveikis šalies makroekonominiams rodikliams. Straipsnyje apibendrinti Lietuvoje vykusių finansų krizių poveikio ekonomikai pagrindiniai veiksniai. „Bankų krizės“ (1995) poveikio Lietuvos ekonomikai pagrindiniai veiksniai: sutrikę įmonių tarpusavio atsiskaitymai, indėlininkų panika (tai pat viena iš dalies bankų bankroto priežasčių), sumažėjęs kreditavimas ir biudžeto pajamų surinkimas, padidėjęs einamosios sąskaitos deficitas, gerokai išaugęs nedarbas. „Rusijos finansų krizė“ (1998) lėmė struktūrinius Lietuvos tarptautinės prekybos pokyčius. Eksportuotojai pradėjo orientuotis į Vakarų rinkas, o priklausomybė nuo NVS šalių ėmė mažėti. [...] Reikšminiai žodžiai: Bankų krizė; Finansų krizė; Finansų krizės indeksas; Globali finansų krizė; Indeksas; Rusijos finansų krizė; Banking crisis; Financial crisis; Financial crisis index; Global financial crisis; Index; Russian financial crisis; The Russian financial crisis; The banking crisis; The global financial crisisEmphasizing sustainable economic development preconditions in Lithuania and in order to research the formation of regional policy, the article was made on Lithuania financial crisis impact on the economy, comparative study. It was found that in the literature lacks of general method to compare the different financial crises that have occurred in different regions, countries or at different intervals impact to economic indicators, so was created financial crisis impact on countries economy index, to compare this diferent impact. The study identified three financial crisis which negatively affected Lithuanian economy - "Lithuania banking crisis" (1995), "Russian financial crisis" (1998) and "Global Financial Crisis" (2008). Based on this new index calculations, the financial crisis affect was compared and found that the greatest negative impact on the economy caused the Global financial crisis (2008). Examining the specifics of Lithuania's economy noted that all of the financial crisis affected the gross domestic product growth, labor market and the country budget balance. Meanwhile, the impact on other macroeconomic indicators of the crisis depended on the crises specifics and was different
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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