12 research outputs found
Inference of the size of nonlinear network systems from perceptible dynamics
No full textNetwork dynamical systems are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The most basic property of a network dynamical system is its size, which, for scalar dynamics, corresponds to the number of nodes. For linear network systems, recent studies have developed reliable tools for inferring the size of the system from perceptible dynamics (measurements of one or some of the network nodes) across multiple experiments. Here, we extend these tools to nonlinear network systems by putting forward a model-agnostic approach that combines clustering techniques, the use of detection matrices, and spectral analysis. The theoretical premise of the algorithm is that, under mild assumptions, the variation between the dynamics of some nodes across multiple measurements can be used to bound the variation between the dynamics of all nodes across the same measurements. By applying clustering techniques on perceptible dynamics, we identify nearby measurements, about which the variational dynamics are approximately linear and the use of the detection matrix is valid. From the spectrum of the detection matrix, we infer its rank, which corresponds to the size of the nonlinear network system. We demonstrate our approach via numerical experiments on different nonlinear network systems, including different types of hypergraphs. Whether nonlinearity comes from individual dynamics of the nodes or the interactions among them, it is rarely a feature that one can dismiss. Our work paves the way to infer the size of a nonlinear network system when governing equations are unknown and only limited data are accessible
Emergence of sublinear scaling of firearm ownership in the United States
No full textAbstract Recently, Succar and Porfiri (Nature Cities 1(3):216–224, 2024) reported sublinear scaling for firearm ownership in the United States. Their analysis hinted at a causal role of prevalence of homicides and firearm accessibility on firearm ownership, supporting self-protection as a driver of firearm ownership. In this study, we propose a microscopic, individual-level model to explain these macroscopic, city-level findings. In the model, individuals dwell in a city and buy a gun if they experience a violent interaction and know a dealer. We examine the model from a network science perspective and show the emergence of sublinear scaling with an exponent matching empirical observations. Beyond scaling, the model provides accurate predictions of city rankings in terms of firearm ownership, underscoring the explanatory power of the self-protection theory
Detecting hidden states in stochastic dynamical systems
No full textInferring the number of states of a stochastic system from partial measurements is a fundamental problem in physics, for which methodological tools remain scarce. It is sometimes difficult to distinguish the stochastic dynamical states from measurements, deceiving us into incorrect models and flawed understanding of natural phenomena. Here, we propose a model-free statistical framework, grounded in network and control theory, to estimate the number of states of a stochastic system from perceptible dynamics. The framework extends previous techniques for deterministic systems, based on the rank of ancillary matrices. We show applications of our approach to a variety of physics domains, such as statistical mechanics, biophysics, physical chemistry, and epidemiology
Inconscicente colectivo : una crítica a la noción de incentivos como criterio de diseño y evaluación de normas y políticas públicas
No full textEste artículo busca señalar por qué la noción de incentivos, ampliamente difundida entre la economía, el derecho y la formulación de políticas públicas, debe ser entendida dentro de unos límites mucho más estrechos de lo que pareciera entender hoy la academia. El autor señala que la noción de incentivos es insuficiente y limitada para explicar el comportamiento humano, para diseñar normas o políticas públicas, y para juzgar su conveniencia. El artículo muestra, además, la necesidad de completar el análisis y modificación de factores externos al individuo con un robustecimiento de sus motivaciones morales internas, discutiendo con la ciudadanía de manera franca y abierta los propósitos o motivaciones del policymaker, para así evitar "malas interpretaciones" de los incentivos que no pueden ser "perversos" en sí mismos, o de las normas implementadas que siempre tendrán algún grado de indeterminación.This article seeks to show why the notion of incentives, widespread among economics, law and public policy, must be understood within much closer limits than academia seems to understand. The author notes that the concept of incentives is insufficient and limited to explain human behavior, insufficient to design rules or public policies, and to judge their suitability. The article also shows the need to complete the analysis and modification of factors external to the individual, with a strengthening of its internal moral motivations, discussing with citizens about the policymaker motivations an purposes. This discussion of moral and political motivations avoids "misreadings" of vague and undetermined rules, and overcomes the problem of "perverse incentives", that actually cannot be "perverse" in themselves.Magíster en Políticas PúblicasMagíster en DerechoMaestrí
Inconscicente colectivo : una crítica a la noción de incentivos como criterio de diseño y evaluación de normas y políticas públicas
No full textEste artículo busca señalar por qué la noción de incentivos, ampliamente difundida entre la economía, el derecho y la formulación de políticas públicas, debe ser entendida dentro de unos límites mucho más estrechos de lo que pareciera entender hoy la academia. El autor señala que la noción de incentivos es insuficiente y limitada para explicar el comportamiento humano, para diseñar normas o políticas públicas, y para juzgar su conveniencia. El artículo muestra, además, la necesidad de completar el análisis y modificación de factores externos al individuo con un robustecimiento de sus motivaciones morales internas, discutiendo con la ciudadanía de manera franca y abierta los propósitos o motivaciones del policymaker, para así evitar "malas interpretaciones" de los incentivos que no pueden ser "perversos" en sí mismos, o de las normas implementadas que siempre tendrán algún grado de indeterminación.This article seeks to show why the notion of incentives, widespread among economics, law and public policy, must be understood within much closer limits than academia seems to understand. The author notes that the concept of incentives is insufficient and limited to explain human behavior, insufficient to design rules or public policies, and to judge their suitability. The article also shows the need to complete the analysis and modification of factors external to the individual, with a strengthening of its internal moral motivations, discussing with citizens about the policymaker motivations an purposes. This discussion of moral and political motivations avoids "misreadings" of vague and undetermined rules, and overcomes the problem of "perverse incentives", that actually cannot be "perverse" in themselves.Magíster en Políticas PúblicasMagíster en DerechoMaestrí
La denuncia de los poderosos y sus consecuencias. Tendiendo puentes entre Sur y Norte, pasado y presente: Rodolfo Walsh y Lydia Cacho
No full textThe Mexican journalist-writer and activist Lydia Cacho (*1963, Mexico City) can be considered one of the bravest contemporary reporters following the journalistic and literary line of Rodolfo Walsh, which also includes a civil commitment of the writer him/herself. This article approaches her denouncement of the “putrefaction of the system” under the influence of Rodolfo Walsh in her periodismo narrativo books, where we can identify the basic writing principle of the Argentinian author, described by Herrscher as “the long and fruitful tradition of muckraking the power” (261). As she describes in Memorias de una infamia (2007), after the published accusations in Los demonios del Edén (2005), Cacho was persecuted and tortured. While investigating the pederast Jean Succar Kuri, the journalist uncovered an extended network of collusion and complicity in which several Mexican businessmen and politicians were involved. Both the suffered persecution and her unexpected popularity influenced her further writing, as we can observe in her next investigative-report, where she uncovered several global mafias by tracing the criminal network behind the trafficking of women and forced prostitution known as white slave trade or “trata de blancas” (Esclavas del poder, 2010). Lydia Cacho, periodista-escritora y activista mexicana (*1963, Ciudad de México) puede ser considerada entre los reporteros actuales más valientes y próximos a la obra de Rodolfo Walsh tanto en el sentido periodístico-literario, como en el compromiso civil. En este artículo se aborda su denuncia de “la podredumbre del sistema” llevada a cabo “a la manera de Walsh” con valientes piezas de periodismo narrativo, en las que se destaca el rasgo básico de la actividad del argentino, definida por Herrscher como “la larga y fructífera tradición de tirarle mierda al poder” (261). Según la propia Cacho refiere en Memorias de una infamia (2007), a raíz de la denuncia en Los demonios del Edén (2005) fue perseguida y torturada. En las investigaciones de la autora sobre el pederasta Jean Succar Kuri, comprobó la existencia de una extensa red de complicidades y protección, que veía involucrados a empresarios y políticos mexicanos. No cabe duda de que la persecución de la que actualmente es víctima, así como su inesperada popularidad, hayan influenciado en sus posteriores trabajos, como la investigación que la llevó a mapear diversas mafias al seguir la pista de redes delictivas asociadas a la “trata de blancas” (Esclavas del poder, 2010)
A randomised controlled double-blind clinical trial of 17-hydroxyprogesterone caproate for the prevention of preterm birth in twin gestation (PROGESTWIN): Evidence for reduced neonatal morbidity
No full textObjective: To determine whether 17 alpha-hydroxyprogesterone caproate (17OHPC) prolongs gestation beyond 37 weeks of gestation (primary outcome) and reduces neonatal morbidity (secondary outcome) in twin pregnancy. Design: Randomised controlled double-blind clinical trial. Setting: Tertiary-care university medical centre. Population: Unselected women with twin pregnancies. Methods: Participants received weekly injections of 250 mg 17OHPC (n = 194) or placebo (n = 94), from 16-20 to 36 weeks of gestation. Randomisation was performed using the permuted-block randomisation method. Data were analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. Main outcome measure: Preterm birth (PTB) rate before 37 weeks of gestation. Results: There were no significant differences in the average gestational age at delivery, or in the rates of PTB before 37, 32, and 28 weeks of gestation, between the two groups. The proportion of very-low-birthweight neonates (1500 g) was significantly lower in the 17OHPC group (7.6percent) compared with placebo (14.3percent) (relative risk, RR 0.5; 95percent confidence interval, 95percent CI 0.3-0.9; P = 0.01). Progestogen-treated neonates had a significantly lower composite neonatal morbidity (19.1percent) compared with placebo (30.9percent) (odds ratio, OR 0.53; 95percent CI 0.31-0.90; P = 0.02), with significantly lower odds for respiratory distress syndrome (14.4 versus 23.4percent; OR 0.55; 95percent CI 0.31-0.98; P = 0.04), retinopathy of prematurity (1.1 versus 4.6percent; OR 0.21; 95percent CI 0.05-0.96; P = 0.04), and culture-confirmed sepsis (3.4 versus 12.8percent; OR 0.24; 95percent CI 0.10-0.57; P = 0.00). Conclusions: Intramuscular 17OHPC therapy did not reduce PTB before 37 weeks of gestation in unselected twin pregnancies. Nonetheless, 17OHPC significantly reduced neonatal morbidity parameters and increased birthweight. © 2014 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.Ananth CV, 2001, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V154, P657, DOI 10.1093-aje-154.7.657; Astle S, 2003, EUR J OBSTET GYN R B, V108, P177; Aveyard P, 2002, BJOG-INT J OBSTET GY, V109, P894, DOI 10.1016-S1470-0328(02)01197-7; Briery CM, 2009, SOUTH MED J, V102, P900, DOI 10.1097-SMJ.0b013e3181afee12; Buscher U, 2000, INT J GYNECOL OBSTET, V69, P1, DOI 10.1016-S0020-7292(99)00223-4; Caritis SN, 2012, AM J OBSTET GYNECOL, V207; Caritis SN, 2011, AM J OBSTET GYNECOL, V205; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 2004, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V53, P655; Cetingoz E, 2011, ARCH GYNECOL OBSTET, V283, P423, DOI 10.1007-s00404-009-1351-2; Combs CA, 2010, AM J OBSTET GYNECOL, V203; Combs CA, 2011, AM J OBSTET GYNECOL; Conde-Agudelo A, 2010, AM J OBSTET GYNECOL, V203; da Fonseca EB, 2003, AM J OBSTET GYNECOL, V188, P419, DOI 10.1067-mob.2003.41; DeFranco EA, 2007, ULTRASOUND OBST GYN, V30, P697, DOI 10.1002-uog.5159; de la Torre L, 2008, AM J PERINAT, V25, P555, DOI 10.1055-s-0028-1085622; Dodd JM, 2008, OBSTET GYNECOL, V112, P127, DOI 10.1097-AOG.0b013e31817d0262; Durnwald CP, 2010, J MATERN-FETAL NEO M, V23, P1360, DOI 10.3109-14767051003702786; Fonseca EB, 2007, NEW ENGL J MED, V357, P462, DOI 10.1056-NEJMoa067815; Hassan SS, 2011, ULTRASOUND OBST GYN, V38, P18, DOI 10.1002-uog.9017; Klein K, 2011, ULTRASOUND OBST GYN, V38, P281, DOI 10.1002-uog.9092; Lei K, 2011, J CLIN ENDOCR METAB, V96, pE1013, DOI 10.1210-jc.2010-2310; Lim AC, 2011, OBSTET GYNECOL, V118, P513, DOI 10.1097-AOG.0b013e31822ad6aa; Loudon JAZ, 2003, BIOL REPROD, V69, P331, DOI 10.1095-biolreprod.102.013698; Manuck TA, 2011, AM J OBSTET GYNECOL, V205; Meis PJ, 2003, NEW ENGL J MED, V348, P2379, DOI 10.1056-NEJMoa035140; Nassar AH, 2003, AM J OBSTET GYNECOL, V189, P513, DOI 10.1067-S0002-9378(03)00485-X; Norman JE, 2009, LANCET, V373, P2034, DOI 10.1016-S0140-6736(09)60947-8; Rode L, 2011, ULTRASOUND OBST GYN, V38, P272, DOI 10.1002-uog.9093; Romero R, 2012, AM J OBSTET GYNECOL, V206; Rouse DJ, 2007, NEW ENGL J MED, V357, P454, DOI 10.1056-NEJMoa070641; Senat M, 2013, AM J OBSTET GYNECOL, V208; Serra V, 2013, BJOG-INT J OBSTET GY, V120, P50, DOI 10.1111-j.1471-0528.2012.03448.x; Steinman G, 2010, J REPROD MED, V55, P143; Stock S, 2010, SEMIN FETAL NEONAT M, V15, P336, DOI 10.1016-j.siny.2010.06.006; Timofeev J, 2014, AM J PERINAT, V31, P55, DOI 10.1055-s-0033-13344520
Prevalence of depression and anxiety in adult patients with β-thalassemia major and intermedia
No full textObjective: To evaluate and compare the prevalence and risk factors for anxiety and depression in adults with β-thalassemia major (TM) and intermedia (TI). Method: A cross-sectional study of TI and TM patients at a Chronic Care Center in Lebanon. A total of 80 patients agreed to participate (32 TI (median age 24 years) and 48 TM (median age 23 years)). The Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) questionnaires were used to assess the depression and anxiety levels of patients, respectively. Data on patient demographics, clinical complications, and socioeconomic status were also collected. Results: Patients with TM had a significantly longer median duration with a known thalassemia diagnosis than patients with TI (p 0.001). A considerable proportion of patients had depression (35.0percent), State (S)-anxiety (22.5percent) or Trait (T)-anxiety (36.2percent). Patients with TI had a higher median S-anxiety score compared with TM (p = 0.035), although the median T-anxiety and depression scores were similar. On linear regression analysis, the significant association between the thalassemia diagnosis (TM versus TI) and S-anxiety score (beta:5.740;95percent CI:0.201 to 11.278;p = 0.042) was no longer observed upon adjustment for the co-variate duration with a known thalassemia diagnosis (beta:3.162;95percent CI:-2.949 to 9.274;p = 0.306). Conclusions: A considerable proportion of adult patients with TM and TI show evidence of depression and anxiety. Patients with TI are more liable to state anxiety than TM patients of a similar age, which is attributed to a shorter duration of living with a thalassemia diagnosis.Abdullatif QA, 2004, ADAPTATION STATE TRA, P55; Azarkeivan A, 2009, J RES MED SCI, V14, P349; Beck A. T., 2006, DEPRESSION CAUSES TR; Borras L, 2007, ACTA NEUROPSYCHIATR, V19, P134, DOI 10.1111-j.1601-5215.2006.00180.x; Cappellini MD, 2007, CLIN THER, V29, P909, DOI 10.1016-j.clinthera.2007.05.007; Clarke DM, 2009, MED J AUSTRALIA, V190, P54; Di Palma A, 1998, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V850, P355; Karimi M, 2010, THROMB HAEMOSTASIS, V103, P989, DOI 10.1160-TH09-09-0661; Levine L, 2010, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V1202, P244, DOI 10.1111-j.1749-6632.2010.05598.x; Lisspers J, 1997, ACTA PSYCHIAT SCAND, V96, P281, DOI 10.1111-j.1600-0447.1997.tb10164.x; Ma N, 2007, AM J PSYCHIAT, V164, P823, DOI 10.1176-appi.ajp.164.5.823; Manfre L, 1999, AM J ROENTGENOL, V173, P1477; McPherson M, 2009, PEDIATR BLOOD CANCER, V52, P838, DOI 10.1002-pbc.21974; Mednick L, 2010, AM J HEMATOL, V85, P802, DOI 10.1002-ajh.21826; Messina G, 2008, INTERN EMERG MED, V3, P339, DOI 10.1007-s11739-008-0166-7; Mikelli A, 2004, J ADOLESCENCE, V27, P213, DOI 10.1016-j.adolescence.2003.11.011; Musallam K, 2008, PEDIATRICS, V121, pE1426, DOI 10.1542-peds.2007-1944; Musallam KM, 2012, ANN HEMATOL, V91, P235, DOI 10.1007-s00277-011-1291-3; Musallam KM, 2011, EUR J HAEMATOL, V87, P73, DOI 10.1111-j.1600-0609.2011.01623.x; Musallam KM, 2011, EUR J HAEMATOL, V87, P539, DOI 10.1111-j.1600-0609.2011.01706.x; Pakbaz Z, 2005, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V1054, P457, DOI 10.1196-annals.1345.059; Pradhan Prakash V., 2003, Indian Journal of Pediatrics, V70, P135, DOI 10.1007-BF02723739; Rachmilewitz EA, 2011, BLOOD, V118, P3479, DOI 10.1182-blood-2010-08-300335; Rund D, 2005, NEW ENGL J MED, V353, P1135, DOI 10.1056-NEJMra050436; Sabry N, 2009, CURR PSYCHIAT, V16, P244; Sankaran VG, 2010, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V1214, P47, DOI 10.1111-j.1749-6632.2010.05821.x; Sobota A, 2011, AM J HEMATOL, V86, P92, DOI 10.1002-ajh.21896; Speilberger C., 1983, STATE TRAIT ANXIETY; Taher A, 2010, ACTA HAEMATOL-BASEL, V123, P220, DOI 10.1159-000313447; Taher AT, 2011, BRIT J HAEMATOL, V152, P512, DOI 10.1111-j.1365-2141.2010.08486.x; Taher AT, 2010, J THROMB HAEMOST, V8, P54, DOI 10.1111-j.1538-7836.2009.03651.x; Weatherall DJ, 2010, BLOOD, V115, P4331, DOI 10.1182-blood-2010-01-251348; West J, 1985, Int J Soc Psychiatry, V31, P282, DOI 10.1177-00207640850310040611
