32 research outputs found
Pemanfaatan Model WRF-ARW Untuk Analisis Fenomena Atmosfer Borneo Vortex (Studi Kasus Tanggal 28 Desember 2014)
No full textPenelitian ini memanfaatkan model WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forcasting – Advanced Research WRF) untuk memberikan gambaran mengenai kondisi atmosfer saat kejadian Borneo Vortex. Hasil visualisasi model WRF-ARW pada tanggal 28 Desember 2014 menunjukkan adanya vortex, dimana hal ini menimbulkan belokan angin dan arus konvergen di Laut Cina Selatan, Selat Karimata, dan Kalimantan bagian selatan. Selain itu kondisi atmosfer yang labil dan kelembaban udara yang tinggi saat itu, memicu terbentuknya awan-awan konvektif pada ketiga wilayah tersebut. Uji kehandalan sederhana pada model menunjukkan bahwa secara spasial model mampu memetakan wilayah-wilayah yang terdapat hujan dengan baik namun dari segi intensitas hujan, angka yang dihasilkan oleh model tergolong underestimate jika dibandingkan dengan data TRMM 3B42
Pemanfaatan Model WRF-ARW untuk Analisis Fenomena Atmosfer Borneo Vortex (Studi Kasus Tanggal 28 Desember 2014)
No full textDataset for Integrated hydrodynamic and machine learning models
No full textThe dataset is the supplement to our publication in Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2021-36). To use this data, please give us credit by citing our article
Imaginative Experience: A Narrative-Dialogic Ethnography of the Community Who Adores Its Idol
No full textManaging customer loyalty becomes an important activity in marketing management. One of the reasons is that loyal consumers tend to make good financial performances to producer. Unfortunately, gaining a loyal customer is not a trivial activity since there are gaps to understand consumer experience comprehensively. To fulfill the gaps, this article explores imaginative experience of the community who adores its idol in the light of cultural perspective. The members of the community who adores its idol experience the imaginative experience. The author argues that those phenomena are cultural perspective, because they are meaningful to the members. Through narrative-dialogic ethnography, the author builds the concept of imaginative experience that through the imaginative media, the members do narrative-dialogic between “the realm of areal” and “the realm of afotik” then activate the imaginative relations in “the realm of aktinik”. Every member constructs its imaginative relations into imaginative constructions formed in a personal story. Managing imaginative experience could benefit the company. It can be the “Imaginative Experience Management” (IEM) that accommodates imaginative consumers’ experiences with the company’s products deeply and sustainably through managing the story of its consumers’ imaginative experiences. It can also be linked to the customer loyalty programs. In this matter, IEM should be integrated with brand management
ANALYSIS OF CHARACTERS AND CHARACTERISTICS
No full textIn general, literature is divided into several types such as prose, poetry, romance, novels, short stories and
drama. Of the many types of literature, here the author will choose one type of literature, namely the novel. In
particular, the author chooses the novel Broken Vow as the object of literary study. Novel Broken Vow One of the
interesting titles and has a very useful story in our lives as humans who have responsibilities and obligations in
society. Besides, based on the author's knowledge, no one has investigated the novel Broken Vow, especially in
terms of character analysis and characterizatio
Integrated machine learning and GIS-based bathtub models to assess the future flood risk in the Kapuas River Delta, Indonesia
No full textAs more and more people live near the sea, future flood risk must be properly assessed for sustainable urban planning and coastal protection. However, this is rarely the case in developing countries where there is a lack of both in-situ data collection and forecasting tools. Here, we consider the case of the Kapuas River Delta (KRD), a data-scarce delta on the west coast of Borneo Island, Indonesia. We assessed future flood risk under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). We combined the multiple linear regression and the GIS-based bathtub inundation models to assess the future flood risk. The former model was implemented to model the river’s water-level dynamics in the KRD, particularly in Pontianak, under the influence of rainfall changes, surface wind changes, and sea-level rise. The later model created flood maps with inundated areas under a 100-year flood scenario, representing Pontianak’s current and future flood extent. We found that about 6.4%–11.9% more buildings and about 6.8%–12.7% more roads will be impacted by a 100-year flood in 2100. Our assessment guides the local water manager in preparing adequate flood mitigation strategies
Integrated hydrodynamic and machine learning models for compound flooding prediction in a data-scarce estuarine delta
No full textFlood forecasting based on hydrodynamic modeling is an essential non-structural measure against compound flooding across the globe. With the risk increasing under climate change, all coastal areas are now in need of flood risk management strategies. Unfortunately, for local water management agencies in developing countries, building such a model is challenging due to the limited computational resources and the scarcity of observational data. We attempt to solve this issue by proposing an integrated hydrodynamic and machine learning (ML) approach to predict water level dynamics as a proxy for the risk of compound flooding in a data-scarce delta. As a case study, this integrated approach is implemented in Pontianak, the densest coastal urban area over the Kapuas River delta, Indonesia. Firstly, we build a hydrodynamic model to simulate several compound flooding scenarios. The outputs are then used to train the ML model. To obtain a robust ML model, we consider three ML algorithms, i.e., random forest (RF), multiple linear regression (MLR), and support vector machine (SVM). Our results show that the integrated scheme works well. The RF is the most accurate algorithm to model water level dynamics in the study area. Meanwhile, the ML model using the RF algorithm can predict 11 out of 17 compound flooding events during the implementation phase. It could be concluded that RF is the most appropriate algorithm to build a reliable ML model capable of estimating the river's water level dynamics within Pontianak, whose output can be used as a proxy for predicting compound flooding events in the city
Analisis Dinamika Atmosfer Saat Hujan Lebat di Wilayah Pontianak Menggunakan Model WRF-ARW (Studi Kasus 22-23 Desember 2022)
No full textAbstrak
Kalimantan Barat memiliki iklim hutan hujan tropis yang dicirikan dengan intensitas curah hujan tinggi. Pada 22–23 Desember 2022, terjadi hujan lebat di Kota Pontianak dengan intensitas mencapai 101,3 mm/hari, yang menyebabkan banjir di kota tersebut. Studi ini menganalisis kondisi cuaca dan stabilitas atmosfer selama peristiwa tersebut menggunakan model WRF-ARW dengan data FNL sebagai input model, serta data GSMaP dan pengamatan suhu udara serta tekanan permukaan untuk verifikasi. Akurasi model dievaluasi menggunakan persamaan dikotomi (Akurasi, FAR, POFD), koefisien korelasi, dan Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Hasil verifikasi menunjukkan bahwa skema GD memiliki performa lebih baik dibandingkan skema KF Kessler dan KF Lin, dengan nilai akurasi skema GD mencapai 0,74, serta error lebih rendah. Analisis dengan skema GD mengindikasikan kondisi atmosfer yang mendukung pembentukan awan konvektif penyebab hujan lebat. Kondisi ini ditandai oleh atmosfer yang labil dengan suhu maksimum 30°C sebelum hujan, tekanan permukaan rendah, kecepatan angin yang tinggi di perairan bagian barat Kota Pontianak, kelembapan udara mencapai 100%, serta kategori CAPE menunjukkan ketidakstabilan sedang (2000 J/Kg).
Kata-kata kunci: Hujan lebat, skema parameterisasi kumulus, WRF-AR
The Simulation of Water Level Using Delft3D Hydrodynamic Model to analyze the case of coastal Inundation in Pontianak
No full textSeveral Indonesian coastal areas are prone to tidal flooding, one of which is Pontianak. High tides can trigger floods due to astronomical and meteorological factors. This study discusses the Delft3D hydrodynamics model’s performance in alluding to sea level and wave height in 4 cases of tidal flood events. Final Data (FNL) Global Operational Analysis from NOAA and tidal component data from oceananomatics are used to the Delft3D model. The model output consists of sea level is verified using tide gauge observation data from BIG. This is then used to analyze sea level to 4 flood events with the accumulated rainfall data from GSMaP, wind, pressure from ECMWF, and rainfall observations to describe the hydro-meteorological conditions. Based on four sea-level simulation cases, the Delft3D hydrodynamic model can perfectly reproduce the sea-level rise pattern. This can be seen from the correlation value of 0.93 - 0.96. Even though the simulated seawater level\u27s value has a high error, it was significantly resolved after the datum correction (with a decrease in error of ±7-11 cm). Generally, the most dominant hydro-meteorological conditions affecting the level of flood events are waves and the direction (45°-90° towards the Pontianak Coast) and speed (4-16 knots) of the wind.
In some cases, heavy rain can exacerbate tidal flooding conditions if it coincides with high sea-level conditions. It can obstruct the river\u27s flow into the sea and cause water to overflow on land. This research can be used to consider making early warnings of tidal flooding in coastal areas, especially Pontianak. In addition, it is better to use forecast data (GFS) to make predictions and early warnings of tidal flooding
Analisis Fisis Atmosfer Saat Hujan Lebat Di Kabupaten Melawi Menggunakan Model WRF-ARW (Studi Kasus 30 Oktober 2021)
No full textPada akhir bulan Oktober hingga awal bulan November 2021 telah terjadi banjir akibat curah hujan tinggi di Kabupaten Melawi, Kalimantan Barat. Banjir menggenangi sejumlah kecamatan di Kabupaten Melawi seperti Menukung dan Ella Hilir. Peningkatan banjir akibat curah hujan yang tinggi dapat menimbulkan dampak kerugian material bahkan memakan korban jiwa. Kajian fisis atmosfer sangat diperlukan untuk memahami penyebab terjadinya hujan tinggi yang berpotensi menyebabkan bencana banjir. Penelitian ini menerapkan model cuaca numerik Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) untuk menganalisis kondisi fisis atmosfer saat kejadian banjir di Kabupaten Melawi dengan menggunakan data Final Global Data Assimilation System (FNL) untuk menjalankan model tersebut. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian yang telah dilakukan, ditemukan bahwa beberapa parameter meteorologi menjadi faktor utama terjadinya hujan lebat yang menyebabkan banjir di Kabupaten Melawi. Parameter meteorologi seperti suhu udara, tekanan permukaan, kecepatan dan arah angin, kelembapan relatif, serta outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) dapat menyebabkan terjadinya hujan di Kabupaten Melawi. Sebelum hujan lebat terjadi di Kabupaten Melawi, terlebih dahulu ditandai dengan suhu udara yang tinggi mengakibatkan lajunya penguapan, tekanan permukaan yang rendah di beberapa wilayah yang menyebabkan terjadinya pola angin konvergensi, sehingga memunculkan awan-awan konvektif yang dapat menimbulkan hujan. Kondisi atmosfer di Kabupaten Melawi yang lembab juga memicu terjadinya hujan lebat yang ditandai dengan nilai CAPE yang tinggi berkisar antara 1000 hingga 1300 J/kg. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan informasi penting yang dapat digunakan oleh pemerintah daerah di Kabupaten Melawi untuk meningkatkan kesiapsiagaan dalam menghadapi bencana banjir. Informasi tentang kondisi atmosfer yang dapat mendukung terjadinya hujan lebat memungkinkan adanya peringatan dini yang lebih akurat dan tepat waktu
