1,721,003 research outputs found
Automatic-differentiated Physics-Informed Echo State Network (API-ESN)
No full textWe propose the Automatic-differentiated Physics-Informed Echo State Network (API-ESN). The network is constrained by the physical equations through the reservoir’s exact time-derivative, which is computed by automatic differentiation. As compared to the original Physics-Informed Echo State Network, the accuracy of the time-derivative is increased by up to seven orders of magnitude. This increased accuracy is key in chaotic dynamical systems, where errors grow exponentially in time. The network is showcased in the reconstruction of unmeasured (hidden) states of a chaotic system. The API-ESN eliminates a source of error, which is present in existing physics-informed echo state networks, in the computation of the time-derivative. This opens up new possibilities for an accurate reconstruction of chaotic dynamical states
Robust Optimization and Validation of Echo State Networks for learning chaotic dynamics
No full textAn approach to the time-accurate prediction of chaotic solutions is by learning temporal patterns from data. Echo State Networks (ESNs), which are a class of Reservoir Computing, can accurately predict the chaotic dynamics well beyond the predictability time. Existing studies, however, also showed that small changes in the hyperparameters may markedly affect the network's performance. The overarching aim of this paper is to improve the robustness in the selection of hyperparameters in Echo State Networks for the time-accurate prediction of chaotic solutions. We define the robustness of a validation strategy as its ability to select hyperparameters that perform consistently between validation and test sets. The goal is three-fold. First, we investigate routinely used validation strategies. Second, we propose the Recycle Validation, and the chaotic versions of existing validation strategies, to specifically tackle the forecasting of chaotic systems. Third, we compare Bayesian optimization with the traditional grid search for optimal hyperparameter selection. Numerical tests are performed on prototypical nonlinear systems that have chaotic and quasiperiodic solutions, such as the Lorenz and Lorenz-96 systems, and the Kuznetsov oscillator. Both model-free and model-informed Echo State Networks are analysed. By comparing the networks’ performance in learning chaotic (unpredictable) versus quasiperiodic (predictable) solutions, we highlight fundamental challenges in learning chaotic solutions. The proposed validation strategies, which are based on the dynamical systems properties of chaotic time series, are shown to outperform the state-of-the-art validation strategies. Because the strategies are principled – they are based on chaos theory such as the Lyapunov time – they can be applied to other Recurrent Neural Networks architectures with little modification. This work opens up new possibilities for the robust design and application of Echo State Networks, and Recurrent Neural Networks, to the time-accurate prediction of chaotic systems
Data-driven prediction and control of extreme events in a chaotic flow
No full textAn extreme event is a sudden and violent change in the state of a nonlinear system. In fluid dynamics, extreme events can have adverse effects on the system's optimal design and operability, which calls for accurate methods for their prediction and control. In this paper, we propose a data-driven methodology for the prediction and control of extreme events in a chaotic shear flow. The approach is based on echo state networks, which are a type of reservoir computing that learn temporal correlations within a time-dependent data set. The objective is fivefold. First, we exploit ad hoc metrics from binary classification to analyze (1) how many of the extreme events predicted by the network actually occur in the test set (precision) and (2) how many extreme events are missed by the network (recall). We apply a principled strategy for optimal hyperparameter selection, which is key to the networks' performance. Second, we focus on the time-accurate prediction of extreme events. We show that echo state networks are able to predict extreme events well beyond the predictability time, i.e., up to more than five Lyapunov times. Third, we focus on the long-term prediction of extreme events from a statistical point of view. By training the networks with data sets that contain nonconverged statistics, we show that the networks are able to learn and extrapolate the flow's long-term statistics. In other words, the networks are able to extrapolate in time from relatively short time series. Fourth, we design a simple and effective control strategy to prevent extreme events from occurring. The control strategy decreases the occurrence of extreme events up to one order of magnitude with respect to the uncontrolled system. Finally, we analyze the robustness of the results for a range of Reynolds numbers. We show that the networks perform well across a wide range of regimes. This work opens up new possibilities for the data-driven prediction and control of extreme events in chaotic systems
Inferring unknown unknowns: Regularized bias-aware ensemble Kalman filter
Full text linkBecause of physical assumptions and numerical approximations, low-order models are affected by uncertainties in the state and parameters, and by model biases. Model biases, also known as model errors or systematic errors, are difficult to infer because they are ‘unknown unknowns’, i.e., we do not necessarily know their functional form a priori. With biased models, data assimilation methods may be ill-posed because either (i) they are ‘bias-unaware’ because the estimators are assumed unbiased, (ii) they rely on an a priori parametric model for the bias, or (iii) they can infer model biases that are not unique for the same model and data. First, we design a data assimilation framework to perform combined state, parameter, and bias estimation. Second, we propose a mathematical solution with a sequential method, i.e., the regularized bias-aware ensemble Kalman Filter (r-EnKF), which requires a model of the bias and its gradient (i.e., the Jacobian). Third, we propose an echo state network as the model bias estimator. We derive the Jacobian of the network, and design a robust training strategy with data augmentation to accurately infer the bias in different scenarios. Fourth, we apply the r-EnKF to nonlinearly coupled oscillators (with and without time-delay) affected by different forms of bias. The r-EnKF infers in real-time parameters and states, and a unique bias. The applications that we showcase are relevant to acoustics, thermoacoustics, and vibrations; however, the r-EnKF opens new opportunities for combined state, parameter and bias estimation for real-time and on-the-fly prediction in nonlinear systems
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Predicting turbulent dynamics with the convolutional autoencoder echo state network
Full text linkThe dynamics of turbulent flows is chaotic and difficult to predict. This makes the design of accurate reduced-order models challenging. The overarching objective of this paper is to propose a nonlinear decomposition of the turbulent state to predict the flow based on a reduced-order representation of the dynamics. We divide the turbulent flow into a spatial problem and a temporal problem. First, we compute the latent space, which is the manifold onto which the turbulent dynamics live. The latent space is found by a series of nonlinear filtering operations, which are performed by a convolutional autoencoder (CAE). The CAE provides the decomposition in space. Second, we predict the time evolution of the turbulent state in the latent space, which is performed by an echo state network (ESN). The ESN provides the evolution in time. Third, by combining the CAE and the ESN, we obtain an autonomous dynamical system: The CAE-ESN. This is the reduced-order model of the turbulent flow. We test the CAE-ESN on the two-dimensional Kolmogorov flow and the three-dimensional minimal flow unit. We show that the CAE-ESN: (i) finds a latent-space representation of the turbulent flow that has of the degrees of freedom than the physical space; (ii) time-accurately and statistically predicts the flow at different Reynolds numbers; and (iii) takes computational time to predict the flow with respect to solving the governing equations. This work opens possibilities for nonlinear decomposition and reduced-order modelling of turbulent flows from data
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
- …
