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    Riva, A

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    Learning temporal probabilistic causal models from longitudinal data.

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    Medical problems often require the analysis and interpretation of large collections of longitudinal data in terms of a structural model of the underlying physiological behavior. A suitable way to deal with this problem is to identify a temporal causal model that may effectively explain the patterns observed in the data. Here we will concentrate on probabilistic models, that provide a convenient framework to represent and manage underspecified information; in particular, we will consider the class of Causal Probabilistic Networks (CPN). We propose a method to perform structural learning of CPNs representing time-series through model selection. Starting from a set of plausible causal structures and a collection of possibly incomplete longitudinal data, we apply a learning algorithm to extract from the data the conditional probabilities describing each model. The models are then ranked according to their performance in reconstructing the original time-series, using several scoring functions, based on one-step ahead predictions. In this paper we describe the proposed methodology through an example taken from the diabetes monitoring domain. The selection process is applied to a set of input-output models that generalize the class of ARX models, where the inputs are the insulin and meal intakes and the outputs are the blood glucose levels. Although the physiological process underlying this particular application is characterized by strong non-linearities and low data reliability, we show that it is possible to obtain meaningful results, in terms of conditional probability learning and model ranking power

    Insulating a Solid Brick Wall from Inside: Heat and Moisture Transfer Analysis of Different Options

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    In the present paper, the thermohygrometric performances of a clay brick wall, with reference to the typical northern Italy's historical building envelopes, improved with an insulating layer on the inner side, are analyzed. Five alternative insulation materials have been compared: calcium silicate hydrates, fiberwood, expanded polystyrene, stone wool, and aerogel. The dynamic calculation tool WUFI (Wärme Und Feuchte Instationär) was adopted for simulating the realistic transient hygrothermal behavior of the multilayer building components exposed to natural local weather. Based on the climatic data of Turin and Tarvisio, chosen as representatives of the northern Italy urban centers and mountain localities, respectively, rain and solar radiation effects, water content distribution through the multilayered wall, mold formation in critical areas of the wall, and heat and vapor flows through the wall surfaces have been evaluated. Finally, the vapor barriers installation affecting the amount of condensate have been considered and compared with the prediction of the simplified steady-state Glaser method commonly adopted in the professional practice of building design. The results of the study indicate that a deep knowledge of the thermohygrometric performance of the wall assembly, together with a reliable/realistic condensation risk analysis, are key factors for a proper internal wall insulation, with particular reference to the actual need of the vapor barrier

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
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