11 research outputs found
Morocco's exchange rate regime reform: motivations and transition strategy
No full textEconomic history is marked by many events that revived the debate on the role of monetary policy and the exchange rate regime. The abandonment of national barriers, the interdependence of international financial markets, the repetition and contagion of financial crises, have led to a reconsideration of the choice of exchange rate regimes and the clarification of the arbitrations they cover, Moreover, monetary authorities and economic policy makers have shown hesitation and distrust about the exchange rate regime to be adopted. The post Bretton-Woods era was marked by a rush for flexibility. Countries have now had the free choice to adopt the exchange rate regime best suited to their needs. Since then, this issue has not lost its timeliness and continues to be refreshed by new research perspectives. In Morocco, it is no longer a question of the choice between fixity or floating, but rather of the degree of fixity or flexibility to be retained, the current exchange rate regime is a fixed parity regime with the attachment of the dirham to a basket of currencies, mainly the euro (60%) and the dollar (40%), which has contributed to the establishment of a macroeconomic stability framework. It is in this perspective that the debate around Morocco’s transition to a floating exchange rate regime has resurfaced, the IMF says in this respect that Together with structural reforms, this regime could help Morocco meet the challenges of competitiveness and likely contribute to boosting growth in the medium term.” Since 2013, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has been working on the implementation of instruments (analysis and forecasting) enabling it to successfully transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime
Vers une plus grande flexibilité du régime de change au Maroc : motivations et stratégie de transition
No full textEconomic history is marked by many events that revived the debate on the role of monetary policy and the exchange rate regime. The abandonment of national barriers, the interdependence of international financial markets, the repetition and contagion of financial crises, have led to a reconsideration of the choice of exchange rate regimes and the clarification of the arbitration they cover, Moreover, monetary authorities and economic policy makers have shown hesitation and distrust about the exchange rate regime to be adopted. The post Bretton-Woods era was marked by a rush for flexibility. Countries have now had the free choice to adopt the exchange rate regime best suited to their needs. Since then, this issue has not lost its timeliness and continues to be refreshed by new research perspectives. In Morocco, it is no longer a question of the choice between fixity or floating, but rather of the degree of fixity or flexibility to be retained, the current exchange rate regime is a fixed parity regime with the attachment of the dirham to a basket of currencies, mainly the euro (60%) and the dollar (40%), which has contributed to the establishment of a macroeconomic stability framework. It is in this perspective that the debate around Morocco’s transition to a floating exchange rate regime has resurfaced, the IMF says in this respect that. Together with structural reforms, this regime could help Morocco meet the challenges of competitiveness and likely contribute to boosting growth in the medium term.” Since 2013, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has been working on the implementation of instruments (analysis and forecasting) enabling it to successfully transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime.
JEL Classification: F, F3, F31
Paper type: Theoretical research. L’histoire économique est marquée par de nombreux événements qui ont ravitaillé le débat sur le rôle de la politique monétaire et du régime de change. L’abandon des barrières nationales, l’interdépendance des marchés financiers internationaux, la répétition et la contagion des crises financières, ont conduit à reconsidérer le choix des régimes de change et à clarifier les arbitrages qu’ils recouvrent, d’ailleurs les autorités monétaires et les décideurs des politiques économiques ont montré une hésitation et une méfiance quant au régime de change à adopter. L’après Bretton-Woods a été marqué par une ruée vers la flexibilité. Les pays ont désormais eu le libre choix d’adopter le régime de change le mieux adapté à leurs besoins. Dès lors, cette problématique n’a pas perdu de son actualité et continue toujours d’être rafraichie par de nouvelles perspectives de recherche. Au Maroc, il ne s’agit plus du choix entre la fixité ou le flottement, mais plutôt du degré de fixité ou de flexibilité à retenir, le régime de change actuel est un régime de parité fixe avec rattachement du dirham à un panier de devises, principalement l’euro (60%) et le dollar (40%). Ce dernier a contribué dans l’instauration d’un cadre de stabilité macro-économique. C’est dans cette perspective que le débat autour du passage du Maroc à un régime de change flottant a refait surface, le FMI affirme à ce titre que « De pair avec les réformes structurelles, ce régime pourrait aider le Maroc à relever les défis de la compétitivité et vraisemblablement contribuer à doper la croissance à moyen terme ». Depuis 2013, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) planche sur la mise en place d’instruments (d’analyse et de prévisions) lui permettant de mener à bien la transition vers un régime de change plus flexible.
JEL : F, F3, F31
Type de l’article : Article théorique
Evaluation of the Socioeconomic Impact of Income Inequality in Morocco Using a CGE Model
No full textThe main objective of this paper is to assess the impact of a change in household income inequality on macroeconomic variables of a developing country, in this case Morocco. To this end, we run a static CGE model calibrated to the 2016 Moroccan SAM. Among the main results, we find that a 1% increase in household income inequality leads to a decrease of (–1.60%) in GDP at market prices, which implies a loss of (–1.93%) in primary sector value added (agriculture and fishing) which remains a key sector in this economy. Furthermore, we find that a fiscal and budgetary policy that targets reducing inequality can also improve social and economic outcomes
Vers une plus grande flexibilité du régime de change au Maroc : motivations et stratégie de transition
No full textEconomic history is marked by many events that revived the debate on the role of monetary policy and the exchange rate regime. The abandonment of national barriers, the interdependence of international financial markets, the repetition and contagion of financial crises, have led to a reconsideration of the choice of exchange rate regimes and the clarification of the arbitration they cover, Moreover, monetary authorities and economic policy makers have shown hesitation and distrust about the exchange rate regime to be adopted. The post Bretton-Woods era was marked by a rush for flexibility. Countries have now had the free choice to adopt the exchange rate regime best suited to their needs. Since then, this issue has not lost its timeliness and continues to be refreshed by new research perspectives. In Morocco, it is no longer a question of the choice between fixity or floating, but rather of the degree of fixity or flexibility to be retained, the current exchange rate regime is a fixed parity regime with the attachment of the dirham to a basket of currencies, mainly the euro (60%) and the dollar (40%), which has contributed to the establishment of a macroeconomic stability framework. It is in this perspective that the debate around Morocco’s transition to a floating exchange rate regime has resurfaced, the IMF says in this respect that. Together with structural reforms, this regime could help Morocco meet the challenges of competitiveness and likely contribute to boosting growth in the medium term.” Since 2013, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has been working on the implementation of instruments (analysis and forecasting) enabling it to successfully transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime.
JEL Classification: F, F3, F31
Paper type: Theoretical research. L’histoire économique est marquée par de nombreux événements qui ont ravitaillé le débat sur le rôle de la politique monétaire et du régime de change. L’abandon des barrières nationales, l’interdépendance des marchés financiers internationaux, la répétition et la contagion des crises financières, ont conduit à reconsidérer le choix des régimes de change et à clarifier les arbitrages qu’ils recouvrent, d’ailleurs les autorités monétaires et les décideurs des politiques économiques ont montré une hésitation et une méfiance quant au régime de change à adopter. L’après Bretton-Woods a été marqué par une ruée vers la flexibilité. Les pays ont désormais eu le libre choix d’adopter le régime de change le mieux adapté à leurs besoins. Dès lors, cette problématique n’a pas perdu de son actualité et continue toujours d’être rafraichie par de nouvelles perspectives de recherche. Au Maroc, il ne s’agit plus du choix entre la fixité ou le flottement, mais plutôt du degré de fixité ou de flexibilité à retenir, le régime de change actuel est un régime de parité fixe avec rattachement du dirham à un panier de devises, principalement l’euro (60%) et le dollar (40%). Ce dernier a contribué dans l’instauration d’un cadre de stabilité macro-économique. C’est dans cette perspective que le débat autour du passage du Maroc à un régime de change flottant a refait surface, le FMI affirme à ce titre que « De pair avec les réformes structurelles, ce régime pourrait aider le Maroc à relever les défis de la compétitivité et vraisemblablement contribuer à doper la croissance à moyen terme ». Depuis 2013, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) planche sur la mise en place d’instruments (d’analyse et de prévisions) lui permettant de mener à bien la transition vers un régime de change plus flexible.
JEL : F, F3, F31
Type de l’article : Article théorique
THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL STABILITY ON ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN AFRICA: EVIDENCE FROM 40 AFRICAN COUNTRIES
No full textLike all other human activities, the economy would not be properly exercised in a place where there is societal unsteadiness. Indeed, governments place the maintenance of political stability at the centre of their interests. So, what is the impact of maintaining this stability upon economic performance? To provide an answer to this question, we have studied this dynamic on the most unstable continent on the planet, Africa. This paper attempts to model the relationship between these two components under a dynamic type model, Autoregressive Delayed Model (ARDL), on a panel of forty African countries over a period of 20 years that goes from 1997 to 2017. The paper’s empirical results reveal that political stability has an impact on GDP per capita through investment. Moreover, the nature of this impact may depend on the location of an African country in the sample. Indeed, this model allows us to distinguish three categories of countries where the impact of stability on economic performance is either positive, negative or neutral. In the short run, political stability positively impacts GDP per capita across the Southern African region, while its impact is neutral for North African countries
Vers une plus grande flexibilité du régime de change au Maroc : motivations et stratégie de transition
No full textEconomic history is marked by many events that revived the debate on the role of monetary policy and the exchange rate regime. The abandonment of national barriers, the interdependence of international financial markets, the repetition and contagion of financial crises, have led to a reconsideration of the choice of exchange rate regimes and the clarification of the arbitration they cover, Moreover, monetary authorities and economic policy makers have shown hesitation and distrust about the exchange rate regime to be adopted. The post Bretton-Woods era was marked by a rush for flexibility. Countries have now had the free choice to adopt the exchange rate regime best suited to their needs. Since then, this issue has not lost its timeliness and continues to be refreshed by new research perspectives. In Morocco, it is no longer a question of the choice between fixity or floating, but rather of the degree of fixity or flexibility to be retained, the current exchange rate regime is a fixed parity regime with the attachment of the dirham to a basket of currencies, mainly the euro (60%) and the dollar (40%), which has contributed to the establishment of a macroeconomic stability framework. It is in this perspective that the debate around Morocco’s transition to a floating exchange rate regime has resurfaced, the IMF says in this respect that. Together with structural reforms, this regime could help Morocco meet the challenges of competitiveness and likely contribute to boosting growth in the medium term.” Since 2013, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has been working on the implementation of instruments (analysis and forecasting) enabling it to successfully transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime.
JEL Classification: F, F3, F31
Paper type: Theoretical research. L’histoire économique est marquée par de nombreux événements qui ont ravitaillé le débat sur le rôle de la politique monétaire et du régime de change. L’abandon des barrières nationales, l’interdépendance des marchés financiers internationaux, la répétition et la contagion des crises financières, ont conduit à reconsidérer le choix des régimes de change et à clarifier les arbitrages qu’ils recouvrent, d’ailleurs les autorités monétaires et les décideurs des politiques économiques ont montré une hésitation et une méfiance quant au régime de change à adopter. L’après Bretton-Woods a été marqué par une ruée vers la flexibilité. Les pays ont désormais eu le libre choix d’adopter le régime de change le mieux adapté à leurs besoins. Dès lors, cette problématique n’a pas perdu de son actualité et continue toujours d’être rafraichie par de nouvelles perspectives de recherche. Au Maroc, il ne s’agit plus du choix entre la fixité ou le flottement, mais plutôt du degré de fixité ou de flexibilité à retenir, le régime de change actuel est un régime de parité fixe avec rattachement du dirham à un panier de devises, principalement l’euro (60%) et le dollar (40%). Ce dernier a contribué dans l’instauration d’un cadre de stabilité macro-économique. C’est dans cette perspective que le débat autour du passage du Maroc à un régime de change flottant a refait surface, le FMI affirme à ce titre que « De pair avec les réformes structurelles, ce régime pourrait aider le Maroc à relever les défis de la compétitivité et vraisemblablement contribuer à doper la croissance à moyen terme ». Depuis 2013, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) planche sur la mise en place d’instruments (d’analyse et de prévisions) lui permettant de mener à bien la transition vers un régime de change plus flexible.
JEL : F, F3, F31
Type de l’article : Article théorique
Efficiency of transmission of monetary policy within the framework of Bank Al-Maghrib's independence: Efficacité de transmission de la politique monétaire dans le cadre de l’indépendance de Bank Al-Maghrib
No full textRésumé
L’objectif des banques centrales indépendantes consiste à assurer la stabilité des prix afin d’atteindre la stabilité macroéconomique, parce que la maîtrise de l’inflation dépend de l’effet de la politique monétaire sur l’activité. Les banques centrales poursuivent donc deux mandats. Elles agissent sur le taux directeur en fonction de la situation économique. Afin de vérifier l’efficacité de la politique monétaire dans le cadre de l’indépendance de la banque centrale, nous avons mobilisé une modélisation SVAR pour le cas Marocain. L’étude porte sur deux périodes distinctes à fréquence trimestrielle (de 1994 à 2005 et de 2006 à 2020) pour prendre en compte la mise en place effective de l’indépendance. Les résultats impliquent une transmission efficace de la politique monétaire. Mots clés : politique monétaire, indépendance de la banque centrale, SVAR
Abstract
The objective of independent central banks is to ensure price stability in order to achieve macroeconomic stability, because controlling inflation depends on the effect of monetary policy on activity. So central banks have two mandates. They act on the interest rate based on the economic situation. In order to verify the effectiveness of monetary policy within the framework of the independence of the central bank, we mobilized a SVAR model for the Moroccan case. The study covers two separate periods on a quarterly basis (1994 to 2005 and 2006 to 2020) to take account of the effective implementation of independence. The results imply an efficient transmission of monetary policy.
Keywords: monetary policy, central bank independence, SVAR
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Impact of AfCFTA implementation on the Moroccan economy: A CGE modeling assessment
No full textThe main objective of this research is to try to make an ex ante assessment of trade liberalization between Morocco and African Countries, within the framework of the AfCFTA, on production and value added by industry and on foreign trade, distinguishing between African and non-African partners. Therefore, this work addresses the effects of creation and/or diversion of trade with the two regions. It is also a question of analyzing the impact of this agreement on the well-being of households, on the use and remuneration of factors, employment (skilled, medium-skilled, and unskilled labor) and on the variation of relative prices. This issue represents a growing interest for public decision-makers for many reasons. The industrial sector in Morocco has become, over the past five years, the leading exporting sector ahead of phosphate products and represents a major stake in terms of industrialization and employment. Other reason relates to the fact that the country’s ambition is to integrate further into GVCs and improve its integration rate to reap the benefits of AfCFTA and avoid problems related to rules of origin. The implementation of this agreement would allow, a priori, the Moroccan industry to benefit from the entry of inputs at lower costs from the Africa zone and to gain access to a large market. This intuition is supported by statistical data on intra-African trade which shows an increasingly important dynamic in terms of trade in manufactured goods. To do this, a national and static CGE Model has been implemented to simulate the impact of the cancellation of customs duties between African countries and Morocco on its economy. This model is based on the standard PEP1-1 model, adapted to the Moroccan case with ad hoc modeling of foreign trade inspired by Boûet (2020). The model is calibrated on a SAM of the year 2018 with a disaggregation of the rest of the world account into two regions: Africa and the rest of the world excluding Africa
Impact of AfCFTA implementation on the Moroccan economy: A CGE modeling assessment
No full textThe main objective of this research is to try to make an ex ante assessment of trade liberalization between Morocco and African Countries, within the framework of the AfCFTA, on production and value added by industry and on foreign trade, distinguishing between African and non-African partners. Therefore, this work addresses the effects of creation and/or diversion of trade with the two regions. It is also a question of analyzing the impact of this agreement on the well-being of households, on the use and remuneration of factors, employment (skilled, medium-skilled, and unskilled labor) and on the variation of relative prices. This issue represents a growing interest for public decision-makers for many reasons. The industrial sector in Morocco has become, over the past five years, the leading exporting sector ahead of phosphate products and represents a major stake in terms of industrialization and employment. Other reason relates to the fact that the country’s ambition is to integrate further into GVCs and improve its integration rate to reap the benefits of AfCFTA and avoid problems related to rules of origin. The implementation of this agreement would allow, a priori, the Moroccan industry to benefit from the entry of inputs at lower costs from the Africa zone and to gain access to a large market. This intuition is supported by statistical data on intra-African trade which shows an increasingly important dynamic in terms of trade in manufactured goods. To do this, a national and static CGE Model has been implemented to simulate the impact of the cancellation of customs duties between African countries and Morocco on its economy. This model is based on the standard PEP1-1 model, adapted to the Moroccan case with ad hoc modeling of foreign trade inspired by Boûet (2020). The model is calibrated on a SAM of the year 2018 with a disaggregation of the rest of the world account into two regions: Africa and the rest of the world excluding Africa
African regional integration: An analysis of the possibility of advancing towards a supranational structure. a study using SVAR
No full textThe objective of this article is to identify the degree of (a)symmetry of macroeconomic shocks affecting African countries in order to test the possibility of progressing towards a supranational structure. To achieve this goal, we employ a structural VAR process to decompose the macroeconomic shocks and then determine their degree of correlation. The results show that the economies of the continent are marked by relatively high degrees of asymmetry, as the responses to the same type of shock differ. Indeed, 79.02% of the correlations of real supply shocks between African countries are asymmetric, as well as 86.76% of the correlations of demand shocks, and 88.13% of the correlations of monetary shocks. Thus, a deepening of integration towards the harmonization of policies would lead to an increase in real divergence between countries, resulting in a reinforcement of the asymmetry of shocks on the African continent.
Keywords: Macroeconomic Shocks, Supranational Structure, SVAR Model, Degrees of Asymmetry. 
