1,720,976 research outputs found
Disruption of outdoor activities caused by wildfire smoke shapes circulation of respiratory pathogens
No full textAs climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as wildfires, are increasing, with profound impacts on human health. While much attention has been paid to the direct health consequences of these events, such as chronic diseases from poor air quality, less is known about how behavioral shifts induced by such events can influence the transmission of infectious diseases. This study investigates how wildfire-induced changes in human behavior during the U.S. West Coast wildfires of 2020 may affect the spread of airborne diseases. Using a mobility data-driven indoor activity index, we find that the wildfire-induced deterioration of air quality led to a substantial increase in indoor activities, fostering conditions conducive to airborne disease transmission. Specifically, counties in Oregon and Washington experienced an average 10.8% and 14.3% increase in indoor activity, respectively, during the wildfire events, with major cities like Portland and Seattle experiencing increases of 11% and 16%, respectively. We quantify these behavioral changes and integrate them into an SIR epidemic model to characterize the increased indoor activity and disease dynamics. The model predicts the greatest impact on diseases with shorter generation times, such as RSV and influenza. Our results show that even a modest increase in indoor mask-wearing (as low as 10%) could significantly reduce the risk of disease spread in these settings, with higher compliance needed for more substantial reductions. As wildfires and other climate-related events become more frequent, integrating behavioral responses into public health policies will be crucial to mitigate the compounded risks of climate change and its secondary health impacts.[Author summary] The effects of climate change on human health are becoming more evident, but we often overlook one crucial factor: how extreme weather events influence our behaviors and, in turn, the spread of infectious diseases. In this study, we explore the role of wildfire-induced behavioral changes on the transmission of airborne diseases, focusing on the U.S. West Coast wildfires of September 2020. Our findings show that wildfires led to a dramatic increase in indoor activities, creating the ideal conditions for respiratory diseases such as influenza to spread. But—by incorporating simple measures like indoor mask-wearing, we can reduce this risk. This research underscores the importance of considering human behavior responses when tackling health risks associated with climate change. As we face more frequent extreme events, public health strategies must evolve to address not just the environmental impact, but also the ways we adapt, react to the emergency. By understanding and planning for this behavioral response, we can better protect public health in a warming world.Research reported in this publication was supported by the Fritz-Family fellowship program to SB and GP.Peer reviewe
County selection for unaffected counties
No full textFig E: Comparison of Population Sizes Between Affected and Unaffected Counties.Peer reviewe
Analysis of COVID-19 R(t) Trends in Wildfire-Affected vs. Unaffected Areas
No full textFig A: Analysis of COVID-19 R(t) Trends in Wildfire-Affected vs. Unaffected Areas.Peer reviewe
Regression Discontinuity of indoor activity seasonality
No full textRegression Discontinuity of indoor activity seasonality.Peer reviewe
Sensitivity analysis
No full textFig C: Analysis of Relative Attack Rate. Fig D: Sensitivity Analysis of the Proportion of Immune Population.Peer reviewe
Indoor Seasonality Index for unaffected counties
No full textFig B. Time series of the Indoor Seasonality Index in unaffected counties.Peer reviewe
Infectious disease model and simulation details
No full textAs climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as wildfires, are increasing, with profound impacts on human health. While much attention has been paid to the direct health consequences of these events, such as chronic diseases from poor air quality, less is known about how behavioral shifts induced by such events can influence the transmission of infectious diseases. This study investigates how wildfire-induced changes in human behavior during the U.S. West Coast wildfires of 2020 may affect the spread of airborne diseases. Using a mobility data-driven indoor activity index, we find that the wildfire-induced deterioration of air quality led to a substantial increase in indoor activities, fostering conditions conducive to airborne disease transmission. Specifically, counties in Oregon and Washington experienced an average 10.8% and 14.3% increase in indoor activity, respectively, during the wildfire events, with major cities like Portland and Seattle experiencing increases of 11% and 16%, respectively. We quantify these behavioral changes and integrate them into an SIR epidemic model to characterize the increased indoor activity and disease dynamics. The model predicts the greatest impact on diseases with shorter generation times, such as RSV and influenza. Our results show that even a modest increase in indoor mask-wearing (as low as 10%) could significantly reduce the risk of disease spread in these settings, with higher compliance needed for more substantial reductions. As wildfires and other climate-related events become more frequent, integrating behavioral responses into public health policies will be crucial to mitigate the compounded risks of climate change and its secondary health impacts.Peer reviewe
Disruption of outdoor activities caused by wildfire smoke shapes circulation of respiratory pathogens
No full textThe consequences of wildfires on public health extend beyond injury. Smoke can traverse vast distances, compromising air quality in unaffected areas and exacerbating chronic respiratory conditions. But smoke may affect the circulation and burden of communicable diseases, too. The disruption in air quality and adherence to safety guidelines can impact the time people spend indoors, and this in turns may increase exposure to airborne pathogens like influenza, SARS-CoV-2, RSV. However, the quantification of such disruptions and their implications for the transmission of respiratory diseases remain unclear. Here we study the effects of smoke generated by severe wildfires in the U.S. states of California, Oregon, Washington in September 2020. We assess the impact on human behavior and the potential consequences for the emergence of respiratory diseases. Our findings reveal a significant shift towards indoor activities in counties within Oregon and Washington during wildfires. However, a discernible change in mobility patterns is not evident in California. This discrepancy may arise from the familiarity of Californian residents with wildfires and air quality index alerts, which have become integrated into their daily routines. Consequently, their mobility patterns may be less affected during such incidents compared to individuals in other regions. We then use a deterministic compartmental model of epidemic spread to quantify the impact of the describe behavioral changes on epidemic circulation. We found that counties with disrupted air exhibited higher cumulated and peak incidence of cases compared to unaffected counties, with the exception of California. Additionally, we found that flu-like epidemics – low reproduction ratio and short generation time – are most affected by the behavioral changes under study. Our findings may help improve public health response in a context of larger, more frequent wildfires triggered by climate change.N
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
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