1,720,978 research outputs found
Trading-Off Machine Learning Algorithms towards Data-Driven Administrative-Socio-Economic Population Health Management
Get PDFTogether with population ageing, the number of people suffering from multimorbidity is increasing, up to more than half of the population by 2035. This part of the population is composed by the highest-risk patients, who are, at the same time, the major users of the healthcare systems. The early identification of this sub-population can really help to improve people’s quality of life and reduce healthcare costs. In this paper, we describe a population health management tool based on state-of-the-art intelligent algorithms, starting from administrative and socio-economic data, for the early identification of high-risk patients. The study refers to the population of the Local Health Unit of Central Tuscany in 2015, which amounts to 1,670,129 residents. After a trade-off on machine learning models and on input data, Random Forest applied to 1-year of historical data achieves the best results, outperforming state-of-the-art models. The most important variables for this model, in terms of mean minimal depth, accuracy decrease and Gini decrease, result to be age and some group of drugs, such as high-ceiling diuretics. Thanks to the low inference time and reduced memory usage, the resulting model allows for real-time risk prediction updates whenever new data become available, giving General Practitioners the possibility to early adopt personalised medicine
Health effects among a cohort exposed to low-level arsenic in a geothermal area of Tuscany, Italy
Get PDFBackground: Studies on low-level As exposure have not found an association with cancer, while increased risks were reported for skin lesions, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and reproductive outcomes. Prospective observational studies with individual exposure measures are needed to study low-level As exposure effects. In a geothermal area in Southern Tuscany (Italy), characterized by a natural presence of As in drinking water (< 50 μg/l), As urinary concentrations were measured in a survey in 1998 and cohort members were followed to evaluate the effects on health.
Methods: Around 900 subjects (20-55 years old) randomly sampled in 4 municipalities of the area (Monte Amiata), have been followed from 1999 to 2015, by hospitalisation and mortality registries. Standardized Hospitalisation Ratios (SHRs) were performed, compared to a reference area. Competing-risks regression models were performed to test the association between As urinary concentration and risk of first hospitalisation.
Results: SHRs show various increased risks, more frequently among males. Internal analyses show a positive association between As and skin diseases in the general population, the Hazard Ratio (HR) for 1 μg/l increase of As urinary concentration is 1.06 (90%CI 1.01-1.11) and in males, HR 1.08 (90%CI 1.02-1.14), between As and circulatory system diseases in males, HR 1.03 (90%CI 1.01-1.05).
Conclusions: The results suggest an effect on skin diseases and circulatory system diseases and, considering the relative young age of cohort members, they could be considered also as predictive of future severer diseases
Hospital incidental diagnosis of diabetes: A population study
No full textAims To identify incidental previously unrecognized diabetes (IPUD) among hospitalized patients and corresponding mortality risk in comparison with individuals with known diabetes (KDM). Methods Out of 214,991 individuals discharged in year 2011 from all hospitals of Tuscany, Italy we retrospectively identified IPUD as individuals with no known diabetes and/or previous antidiabetic medication, receiving at least two prescriptions of glucose-lowering-drugs over the next 6 months after discharge. Two-year (2012-2013) adjusted mortality risk was tested by a Cox-regression-analysis, comparing IPUD and KDM patients with at least one hospital admission in 2011. Results 974 patients with IPUD (375.6 × 100,000 hospitalized people) have been identified. IPUD risk was associated with aging, male gender and greater burden of co-morbidities, was higher in migrants of non-Italian ancestry and was reduced among patients of family physicians adhering to guidelines resulting in a proactive model of care delivery. In IPUD patients alive at 1st January 2012, (n = 865) the adjusted risk of two-year mortality was similar to that of KDM subjects (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 0.92-1.26; p = NS). Conclusions IPUD occurs more commonly in older male subjects, migrants of non-Italian ancestry, and among patients of physicians non-adhering to a shared diabetes care model. People with IPUD have similar two-year-mortality risk compared with KDM individual
Changes in diabetes care introduced by a Chronic Care Model-based programme in Tuscany: a 4-year cohort study
No full textBackground: In 2010, Tuscany (Italy) implemented a Chronic Care Model (CCM)-based programme for the management of chronic diseases. The study's objective was to evaluate its impact on the care of patients with type 2 diabetes. Methods: A population-based cohort study was performed on patients with diabetes, identified by an administrative data algorithm, exposed to a CCM-based programme versus patients not exposed (8486 patients in each group). The groups were matched using a propensity score approach and observed from 2011 to 2014. The outcomes measured were: mortality rate and hazard ratio (HR), hospitalisation incidence rate (IR) (all causes and diabetes-related diseases) and incidence rate ratio (IRR), and Guideline Composite Indicator (GCI) as proxy of adherence to guidelines (IR and IRR). Stratified Cox regression analysis and conditional fixed effect Poisson regression analyses were performed to compute HR and IRR. Results: A significant improvement was observed for GCI (IRR 1.58; 95% CI 1.53-1.62) and for cardiovascular long-term complications (IRR 1.11; 95% CI 1.04-1.18). A protective effect was observed for neurological long-term complications (IRR 0.85; 95% CI 0.76-0.95), acute cardio-cerebrovascular long-term complications-stroke and ST segment elevation myocardial infarction-(IRR 0.81; 95% CI 0.71-0.92) and mortality (HR 0.88; 95% CI 0.81-0.96). Conclusion: The implementation of a CCM-based programme was followed by better management and benefits for the health status of patients. The increase in hospitalisations for cardiovascular long-term complications could engender cost-efficacy issues, but a better integrated care (GPs and specialists) and a more appropriate specialist outpatient services organisation could avoid a part of these, while still maintaining the benefits seen
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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