1,721,174 research outputs found
Does monetary policy stabilize the exchange rate following a currency crisis?
Full text linkThis paper provides evidence on the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange rate in the aftermath of currency crises. It analyzes a large data set of currency crises in 80 countries in the period 1980 to 1998. The main question addressed is: can monetary policy significantly alter the probability of reversing the post-crisis undervaluation through nominal appreciation rather than higher inflation? We find that tight monetary policy facilitates the reversal of currency undervaluation through nominal appreciation rather than inflation. When the economy is also facing a banking crisis, depending on the specification, tight monetary policy may not have the same effect.
Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?
Full text linkThis paper provides evidence on the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange rate in the aftermath of currency crises. It analyzes a large dataset of currency crises in 80 countries for the period 1980-98. The main question addressed is whether monetary policy can increase the probability of reversing a postcrisis undervaluation through nominal appreciation rather than higher inflation. We find that tight monetary policy facilitates the reversal of currency undervaluation through nominal appreciation. When the economy also faces a banking crisis, the results are not robust and depend on the specification. Copyright 2003, International Monetary Fund
Foreign bank penetration, resource allocation and economic growth: evidence from emerging economies
Full text linkThis paper examines the implications of foreign bank penetration on economic growth from the perspective of resource allocation in host countries. We use aggregate banking data, constructed from bank-level balance sheets and income statement information covering more than 1200 banks in the 35 emerging economies of Asia, Latin America and Eastern and Central Europe for the period from 1996 to 2003. By applying the pooled OLS and fixed-effects models, we present consistent evidence that the effect of gross fixed capital formation on output growth is higher in an economy with a more pronounced level of foreign bank penetration relative to an economy with a lower level of foreign bank penetration. This finding suggests that foreign banks play an important role in allocating capital in a more productive way, thus leading to a higher economic growth rate. One of the main policy implications of our findings in this paper is that foreign banks may serve as a channel in enhancing economic integration of emerging economies with advanced economies that are the home countries of foreign banks.foreign bank penetration; economic growth; resource allocation
The effect of monetary policy on exchange rates during currency crises: The role of debt, institutions and financial openness.
Full text linkMacroeconomic Determinants of Contingent Protection: The Case of the European Union
Full text linkContingent Protection has grown to become an important trade restricting device. In the European Union, protection instruments like antidumping are used extensively. This paper analyses whether macroeconomic pressures may contribute to explain the variations in the intensity of antidumping protectionism in the EU. The empirical analysis uses count data models, applying various specification tests to derive the most appropriate specification. Our results suggest that the filing activity is inversely related to the macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, they confirm existing evidence for the US suggesting that domestic macroeconomic pressures are a more important determinant of contingent protection policy than external pressures.Antidumping; protection; macroeconomic conditions; estimation of count data models
A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Inflation Targeting is Bretton Woods, Reversed
Full text linkA stable international monetary system has emerged since the early 1990s. A large number of industrial and a growing number of developing countries now have domestic inflation targets administered by independent and transparent central banks. These countries place few restrictions on capital mobility and allow their exchange rates to float. The domestic focus of monetary policy in these countries does not have any obvious international cost. Inflation targeters have lower exchange rate volatility and less frequent “sudden stops” of capital flows than similar countries that do not target inflation. Inflation targeting countries also do not have current accounts or international reserves that look different from other countries. This system was not planned and does not rely on international coordination. There is no role for a center country, the IMF, or gold. It is durable; in contrast to other monetary regimes, no country has been forced to abandon an inflation-targeting regime. Succinctly, it is the diametric opposite of the post-war system; Bretton Woods, reversed.
Monetary Transmissions Immediately after the Crisis in East Asia
Full text linkWe examine dynamic patterns of macroeconomic variables in East Asia immediately after the Asian financial crisis. Particularly, focusing on East Asia, we can identify their distinctive features from those of aggregate cross-country results. Also, we check with the financial crises in East Asia in the 1980s in order to make sure to what extent the contrast between the aggregate cross-country results and that of the Asian financial crisis comes from differences in time (external environment) or in country structure or both. Some distinctive features in East Asia include higher real interest rates in the crisis year, persistent output as well as investment slowdown, and different behaviors of trade and fiscal surpluses after the crisis. The results suggest that initial monetary tightening be responsible for the unexpectedly serious recession and that favorable external conditions and fiscal stimulus did contribute to the post-crisis real recovery even without credit recoveries.macroeconomic dynamics, East Asia, financial crisis
Nonperforming loans in Sub-Saharan Africa : causal analysis and macroeconomic implications
Full text linkThis paper investigates the leading causes of nonperforming loans during the economic and banking crises that affected a large number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s. Empirical analysis shows a dramatic increase in these loans and extremely high credit risk, with significant differences between the CFA and non-CFA countries, and substantially higher financial costs for the latter sub-panel of countries. The results also highlight a strong causality between these loans and economic growth, real exchange rate appreciation, the real interest rate, net interest margins, and interbank loans consistent with the causality and econometric analysis, which reveal the significance of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. The dramatic increase in these loans is largely driven by macroeconomic volatility and reflects the vulnerability of undiversified African economies, which remain heavily exposed to external shocks. Simulated results show that macroeconomic stability and economic growth are associated with a declining level of nonperforming loans; whereas adverse macroeconomic shocks coupled with higher cost of capital and lower interest margins are associated with a rising scope of nonperforming loans. These results are supported by long-term estimates of nonperforming loans derived from pseudo panel-based prediction models.Banks&Banking Reform,Investment and Investment Climate,Financial Intermediation,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring,Municipal Financial Management
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
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