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Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés (18/10/2016)
No full textWill the Paris Accord Accelerate Climate Change? / Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Andrey Polbin, Andrey Zubarev. NBER, Oct. 2016, 43 p. (Working Paper No. 22731) http://www.kotlikoff.net/node/551 The 2015 Paris Accord is meant to control our planet’s rising temperature. But it may be doing the opposite in gradually, rather than immediately reducing CO2 emissions. The Accord effectively tells dirty-energy producers to "use it or lose it." This may be accelerating their extraction and burning of foss..
Multivariate Unobserved Component Model for an Oil-exporting Economy: The Case of Russia
Get PDFThis paper presents an unobserved component model for real GDP, real household consumption, and real investment of an oil-exporting economy. The model decomposes domestic variables’ dynamics into permanent and transitory components, accounting for dependence on oil prices in the short and long-run, as well as for the common long-run economic growth and the common cyclical behavior. Estimated on the Russian macroeconomic variables, the model exhibits strong dependence on oil prices
Моделирование реального курса рубля в условиях изменения режима денежно-кредитной политики
Get PDFThe paper estimates vector error correction model (VECM) for the real ruble exchange rate and the real oil prices. The VECM model takes into account the structural break in short run parameters due to monetary policy regime change in November 2014. Estimates show that the real exchange rate response to oil price shocks has dramatically changed. Before November 2014 it is needed approximately one year to correct 50% of a real exchange rate gap due to oil prices permanent change. From November 2014 the real exchange rate adapts to oil price shocks almost instantly. The estimate of long-run elasticity of the real exchange rate on real oil prices is 0.33
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Прогнозирование основных российских макроэкономических показателей с помощью TVP-модели с байесовским сжатием параметров
No full textThe paper examines the quality of forecasts of Russian GDP and its components (household consumption, investment, exports and imports) using a model with Bayesian shrinkage of time-varying parameters (TVP) based on hierarchical normal-gamma prior. Such models account for the possible nonlinearity of relationships and, at the same time, can deal with the overfitting problem. We find that, compared to simpler benchmarks, the Bayesian TVP model with exogenous predictors gives better forecasts for GDP at horizons of 2-4 quarters, and for investment – at horizons of 1-3 quarters. When predicting other components of GDP, Bayesian TVP models do not demonstrate systematic superiority over other models
General equilibrium model with the entrepreneurial sector for the Russian economy
No full textThis paper proposes a general equilibrium model with the entrepreneurial sector for the Russian economy. The novelty of the model lies in several points. First, the model is a small open economy. Second, it includes the entrepreneurial sector. Third, the model reflects the main features of the Russian economy. Five experiments were conducted, for which steady states and transitions were computed. These experiments included: (1) an export price shock, (2) redistribution of government consumption between the corporate and entrepreneurial sectors, (3) relaxation of collateral requirements, (4) a credit rate subsidy for entrepreneurs, (5) VAT for entrepreneurs. The export price shock results in lower entrepreneurial output due to higher wages in the short run, but in the long run the positive effects of increased demand and assets lead to higher output. Increased government consumption of entrepreneurial goods leads to a reallocation of resources from the corporate sector to the entrepreneurial one. The relaxation of collateral requirements leads to a sharp increase in entrepreneurial investment and capital and a decline in the number of entrepreneurs, which means that they become bigger. The credit rate subsidy leads to an increase in capital in the entrepreneurial sector, and then in output. The cost of subsidies leads to a decrease in lump-sum transfers, but this does not lead to a significant change in household consumption. The introduction of a value-added tax on entrepreneurial goods leads to a redistribution of resources from the entrepreneurial sector to the corporate one, lower household consumption and higher GDP
Long-run relationship between real consumption and real income in the Russian Federation: An ARDL bounds testing approach
Get PDFThis paper considers an application of the ARDL model and bounds testing approach to the analysis of the long-run relationship between household consumption and aggregate income. We have explored the presence of a long-run relationship between real household consumption and indicators characterizing real income, such as: real gross domestic product (GDP), real gross domestic income (GDI), and GDP at constant household consumption prices. We provide statistical evidence of the lack of a long-run relationship in the first and second cases and its presence in the third case. We have concluded that the nominal GDP deflated by the price index of aggregated consumption is the most applicable indicator for describing the dynamics of real consumption in the Russian Federation
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