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    Regional analysis of South Bavaria to assess demand in regional rail passenger transport until the year 2025

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    Die vorliegende Diplomarbeit wurde im Rahmen des Studiums Raumplanung und Raumordnung an der Technischen Universität Wien in Kooperation mit der ÖBB Personenverkehr AG unter der Aufsicht von Prof.Georg Hauger am Fachbereich für Verkehrssystemplanung von November 2009 bis März 2010 verfasst. Sie behandelt die Analyse und Prognose von Einflussparametern der potentiellen Verkehrsnachfrage im Schienenpersonennahverkehr in Südbayern bis 2025. Veränderungen in der Raum-, Bevölkerungs- und Wirtschaftsstruktur sind dabei von besonderer Bedeutung, wobei in die Untersuchung auch eine Analyse der wichtigsten raum- und verkehrsplanerischen Dokumente einfließt. Für das Werdenfelser Land, eine Region südwestlich von München, dessen Regionalbahnnetz Ende 2009 zur öffentlichen Ausschreibung unter Wettbewerbsbedingungen angemeldet wurde, wird eine tiefergehende Betrachtung vorgenommen.Bei der möglichen Entwicklung der wichtigsten Nachfragegruppen im Werdenfelser Land wird im Ausbildungsverkehr in Anlehnung an den prognostizierten Rückgang der jüngeren Bevölkerungsgruppen ein drastischer Rückgang erwartet; die einzige Ausnahme bildet der Landkreis München, für den Zuwächse vorhergesagt werden. Beim Erwerbspendelverkehr kann ebenfalls von einem besseren Abschneiden des Großraums München als in den peripheren Landkreisen ausgegangen werden. Eine Steigerung des ÖV-Anteils bei den Fernpendlern, die im Untersuchungsraum kaum Alternativen zur Fahrzielverlagerung haben, ist plausibel, da höhere Fahrkostensteigerungen im MIV als im ÖV erwartet werden können.Inwieweit der SPNV im Werdenfelser Land vom steigenden Anteil des tendenziell MIV-affinen Freizeitverkehrs am Verkehrsaufkommen und der Verkehrsleistung profitieren können wird, ist schwierig zu prognostizieren. Aufgrund des höheren Motorisierungsgrades im ländlichen Raum wird der MIV hier wohl überdurchschnittlich dazugewinnen. Die prognostizierte positive Bevölkerungs- und Wirtschaftsdynamik des Großraums München lässt aber eine Zunahme des Bedürfnisses nach (Nah-)Erholungs- und Freizeitmöglichkeiten in zumutbarer Distanz erwarten.Da hier teils widersprüchliche Entwicklungstrends vorliegen, ist es schwierig, einen eindeutigen Gesamttrend und eindeutige Schlussfolgerungen für die Entwicklung der Verkehrsnachfrage im SPNV in Südbayern herauszuarbeiten. Sicher scheint nur, dass sich SPNV-Unternehmer in Zukunft noch stärker in einer zweifachen Konkurrenzsituation befinden werden: Sie müssen einerseits mit den neuen Wettbewerbsbedingungen in einem liberalisierten Eisenbahnmarkt umgehen, andererseits verschärft sich der intermodale Wettbewerb im boomenden Freizeitverkehr. Dieser ist zugleich ein wichtiges Betätigungsfeld, um zu erwartende Verluste in bestimmten Kernnachfragesegmenten bewältigen zu können. Der Ausgestaltung des SPNV-Angebots durch die Unternehmen kommt daher eine besondere Bedeutung zu. Entsprechende Quantität und Qualität des Angebots, innovative Tarifkonzepte oder die Zusammenarbeit mit Tourismusregionen sollten es ÖV-Unternehmen ermöglichen, vom steigenden Freizeitverkehrsaufkommen zu profitieren. Aufgrund der geringen Auslastung auf einigen Nebenstrecken wäre es aber auch wichtig, gemeinsam mit der öffentlichen Hand ein regionales ÖV-Konzept zu erarbeiten, um Optimierungs- und Einsparungspotenziale nutzen zu können.To obtain a Master of Science in Urban and Regional Planning a master's thesis is to be written. The present paper has been supervised by Georg Hauger, head of the Centre of Transportation System Planning at the Vienna University of Technology, and been created in cooperation with an Austrian railway company, the "ÖBB-Personenverkehr AG".The thesis analyses possible developments of the most important factors influencing demand in regional rail passenger transport in South Bavaria. Therefore, it traces changes in population development, economic structure and spatial pattern and provides a forecast up to the year 2025. Furthermore, it contains a more detailed analysis of Werdenfelser Land, a region south-west of Munich, whose passenger rail services were put out to tender in 2009.Methods of regional analysis are used to focus on regional disparities in South Bavaria. The bases for this regional analysis are official statistics, statistical reports and a special dataset of transport demand in Werdenfelser Land. In addition, documents on the main planning and transport policies are analysed.The results of the research reveal big disparities between South Bavaria's urban and rural areas. The overall population is predicted to grow in most regions apart from some smaller ones close to the Austrian and Czech borders. On the contrary, the number of young people is forecasted to decline in all regions but the Munich metropolitan area.Forecasts show that the working population will increase slightly, especially in urban areas. Accordingly, the number of commuters will develop in the same way. Under consideration of mobility issues, passenger-miles travelled during the period of interest are expected to increase faster than the number of person-trips, which results in longer average distances travelled. In particular, recreational traffic may increase above-average. As Bavarian planning and transport policies declare railways the backbone of public transport, Bavarian politicians support regional railway networks, like the one in the case study area.In addition, public spending has been assured for the upcoming years.Nevertheless, this may change owing to the actual economic crisis.It is difficult to issue a clear and unambiguous prognosis on demand in regional rail transport due to these diverging trends. However, it is clear that railway companies are finding themselves in a highly competitive situation. Due to public tendering of regional railway services, they have to deal with other private and public competitors.Furthermore, there is a tendency of increasing car usage, especially in recreational traffic. Therefore, railway companies have to improve to satisfy their current and prospective customers. This might be achieved, for example, by investing in new vehicles, providing new and satisfactory fare structures or improving marketing. The key issue, though, is a thorough knowledge of the service area

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed

    Variations on the Author

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    “Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship

    Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis

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    We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis

    Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts

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    We conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more sophisticated methods

    Author Index

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    koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist

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    We have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used

    Author Under Sail The Imagination of Jack London, 1893-1902

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    In Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Intro -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- 1. Spirit Truth -- 2. From Absorption to Theatricality and Back Again -- 3. "I Will Build a New Present" -- 4. Sons as Authors -- 5. Fathers as Publishers -- 6. The Daughter as Author -- 7. Lovers as Authors -- 8. At Sea with the Family -- 9. Yellow News, Yellow Stories -- 10. The Return Home -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index -- About Jay WilliamsIn Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, YYYY. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries
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