1,720,971 research outputs found
Simulating Climate Change Impacts on Hybrid-Poplar and Black Locust Short Rotation Coppices
No full textIn Brandenburg, north-eastern Germany, climate change is associated with increasing annual temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation. Appraising short rotation coppices (SRCs), given their long-time planning horizon demands for systematic assessments of woody biomass production under a considerable spectrum of climate change prospects. This paper investigates the prospective growth sensitivity of poplar and black locust SRCs, established in Brandenburg to a variety of weather conditions and long-term climate change, from 2015 to 2054, by a combined experimental and simulation study. The analysis employed (i) a biophysical, process-based model to simulate the daily tree growth and (ii) 100 realisations of the statistical regional climate model STAR 2K. In the last growing period, the simulations showed that the assumed climate change could lead to a decrease in the woody biomass of about 5 Mg ha−1 (18%) for poplar and a decrease of about 1.7 Mg ha−1 (11%) for black locust trees with respect to the median observed in the reference period. The findings corroborate the potential tree growth vulnerability to prospective climatic changes, particularly to changes in water availability and underline the importance of coping management strategies in SRCs for forthcoming risk assessments and adaptation scenarios
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
No full textWe have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
Analysis of potential impacts of climate and land use changes on the natural water balance and on the water resources management of Lusatia
Full text linkIn den Lausitzer Flusseinzugsgebieten bestehen aufgrund eines verhältnismäßig geringen natürlichen Wasserdargebots und durch die Auswirkungen des Braunkohlebergbaus bzw. dessen abrupten Rückgangs in den 1990er Jahren Probleme hinsichtlich der Bereitstellung von Wasser in ausreichenden Menge und Qualität für die vielfältigen Nutzungen. Vor diesem Hintergrund sind die Auswirkungen potenzieller Klima- (ansteigende Temperaturen und sinkende Niederschläge) und Landnutzungsänderungen (weiterer Rückgang des Braunkohlebergbaus sowie verstärkter Anbau agrarischer Energiepflanzen) auf die regionalen Wasserressourcen von besonderem Interesse. Es stellt sich die Frage, in welchem Ausmaß wasserwirtschaftliche Engpässe möglicherweise verschärft werden bzw. durch gezielte Anpassungsmaßnahmen ausgeglichen werden können.
Voraussetzung zur Ableitung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen sind ortsspezifische Antworten hinsichtlich der möglichen Auswirkungen von Klima- und Landnutzungsänderungen auf den natürlichen Wasserhaushalt und die Wassermengenbewirtschaftung. Diese wurden mit einem Ensemble aus den regionalen Klimamodellen STAR und WettReg, Landnutzungsszenarien in Bezug auf Braunkohlebergbau und Energiepflanzenanbau, den hydrologischen Modellen SWIM und EGMO sowie dem Langfristbewirtschaftungsmodell WBalMo untersucht.
Als Grundlage für die Analyse wurden mit dem ökohydrologischen Modellsystem SWIM für die Einzugsgebiete von Schwarzer Elster, Dahme, Spree (bis Pegel Große Tränke) und Lausitzer Neiße (bis Pegel Steinbach) je ein Modell zur Simulation des natürlichen Wasserhaushalts aufgebaut. Der klassische Ansatz zur Modellparametrisierung durch Kalibrierung anhand beobachteter Abflüsse ist aufgrund der starken anthropogenen Überprägung des Abflussgeschehens durch Braunkohlebergbau und Wasserwirtschaft erschwert. Daher erfolgte zunächst eine Kalibrierung für weniger überprägte Teileinzugsgebiete, anschließend wurden die Modellparameter durch Regionalisierung auf die Gesamtgebiete übertragen.
Bei Simulationen mit SWIM für Klimaszenarien mit ansteigender Jahresmitteltemperatur zeigen sich Zunahmen der potenziellen Verdunstung um bis zu 30 % im langjährigen Mittel. Aufgrund der in diesen Szenarien projizierten Abnahme der Niederschlagsjahressummen steigt die mittlere reale Verdunstung nur um bis zu 10 %, weiterhin ergibt sich ein Rückgang der Jahresmittel von Abfluss und Grundwasserneubildung um bis zu 60 %. Ein Rückgang des Grundwasserabsenkungstrichters und damit die Vergrößerung der abflusswirksamen Einzugsgebietsfläche mindert die Auswirkungen der klimatischen Änderungen geringfügig. Bei einem verstärkten Anbau von Winterraps ergeben sich bei gleichem Klimaszenario aufgrund verringerter realer Verdunstung höhere Abflüsse und Grundwasserneubildungsraten im Vergleich zu Winterweizen als Referenzvariante. Die Ergebnisse der natürlichen Wasserhaushaltskomponenten spiegeln hohe Bandbreiten der Klimaprojektionen wider. Unsicherheiten bestehen weiterhin in der hydrologischen Reaktion auf geänderte klimatische Bedingungen, wie Vergleiche der Ergebnisse von SWIM mit denen des hydrologischen Modells EGMO aufzeigen. Im Vergleich dazu sind die mit den Landnutzungsänderungen verbundenen Unsicherheiten eher von untergeordneter Bedeutung.
Durch den Rückgang der natürlichen Abflüsse und von Sümpfungswassereinleitungen ergeben sich in der Simulation der Wassermengenbewirtschaftung mit WBalMo Abnahmen der bewirtschafteten Abflüsse um bis zu 50 %. Das hätte zur Folge, dass die Nutzeransprüche nicht mehr ausreichend erfüllt werden können. Es zeigte sich, dass die negativen Auswirkungen der Klima- und Landnutzungsänderungen durch wasserwirtschaftliche Maßnahmen innerhalb des Untersuchungsgebiets, wie zum Beispiel eine geänderte Speicherbewirtschaftung, nicht ausreichend gemindert werden, die Überleitung von Wasser aus der Elbe jedoch eine geeignete Anpassungsoption darstellt. Die Unsicherheiten bezüglich der natürlichen Wasserhaushaltskomponenten ziehen in der Simulation der Wassermengenbewirtschaftung hohe Bandbreiten der Ergebnisse nach sich.
Der Ansatz der ensemblegestützten Analyse erlaubt es, Auswirkungen potenzieller Klima- und Landnutzungsänderungen auf die natürlichen Wasserhaushaltskomponenten und die Wassermengenbewirtschaftung abzuschätzen und damit verbundene Unsicherheiten zu berücksichtigen sowie mögliche Anpassungsoptionen zu identifizieren.In the Lusatian river catchments, the allocation of water in sufficient quantity and of adequate quality for various purposes is constrained by relatively low natural water availability as well as by the consequences of lignite mining and its rapid decrease in the 1990s. Thus, the impacts of potential climate (increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation) and land use changes (further decrease of the mining activities and an increasing cultivation of arable energy crops) on water resources are of major interest. The fundamental question is to what extent the already existing deficits in water management are exacerbated and whether they can be mitigated by adaptation measures.
In order to derive adaptation measures, site-specific results regarding the possible impacts of climate and land use changes on the natural water balance as well as on water resources management are necessary. Therefore, an ensemble consisting of the regional climate models STAR and WettReg, land use scenarios in terms of lignite mining and energy crop production, the hydrological models SWIM and EGMO, as well as the long term water management model WBalMo is used.
As a prerequisite for the analysis, the ecohydrological model SWIM was set up for the catchments of the Schwarze Elster River, the Dahme River, the Spree River (up to Große Tränke gauge) and the Lusatian Neisse River (up to Steinbach gauge) each in order to simulate natural water balance components. The traditional approach of calibrating hydrological models based on time series of observed discharges is aggravated due to the strong impacts of mining and water management on discharge. Therefore, in a first step the models were calibrated for subcatchments with only minor anthropogenic influence on discharge. In a second step, the model parameters were transferred to the entire catchments via regionalization.
In climate scenarios with increasing temperature, SWIM simulates increases in the potential evapotranspiration of up to 30 % on the long term average. As declining precipitation is projected in these scenarios, the actual evapotranspiration increases by 10 % on average only, whereas discharge and groundwater recharge decline by up to 60 %. The declining ground water depression cone and thus the increase of the catchment area contributing to runoff only slightly alleviates the effects of climate change. An increasing cultivation of winter oil seed rape results in slightly reduced actual evapotranspiration and therefore in increased discharge and ground water recharge compared to simulations with the same climate scenario and winter wheat as reference crop. Overall, the simulation results of the natural water balance components reflect high bandwidths of the climate projections. Further uncertainties are added by the hydrological reaction to changing climate conditions, as shown by comparing the results of SWIM with those of the hydrological model EGMO. In comparison, the uncertainties related to land use changes are minor.
Due to decreasing natural discharges as well as decreasing mining discharges, which are released into the rivers, simulations with WBalMo show declining managed discharges by 50 % on the long term average. As a consequence, the demands of the water users cannot be satisfied sufficiently. The impacts of climate and land use changes cannot be adequately mitigated by adaptation measures in terms of an altered management within the study region, e.g. reservoir management. A transfer of water from the Elbe River to the study region, however, might be a feasible option to alleviate negative climate and land use change impacts. The uncertainties associated with the simulation of natural discharges also cause high bandwidths in the simulation of water management regarding climate and land use scenarios as well as hydrological models.
The ensemble-based analysis allows the assessment of (1) potential climate and land use change impacts on the natural water balance components as well as on the water resources management in the Lusatian river catchments, (2) uncertainties in these impacts and (3) feasible adaptation options
Author-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.
No full textAuthor-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.</p
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