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Pre-Analysis Plan: Janus Through the Looking Glass: Federalism, Trade Policy Preferences, and Multiple Identity Primers
No full textThis is the PAP for a survey experiment about trade preferences
Replication Data for: Does Affective Empathy Capacity Condition Individual Variation in Support for Military Escalation? Evidence from a Survey Vignette
No full textData and code to replicate the results from the main paper and the appendix
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A Political Economy Theory of Military Power
Full text linkWhat is military power? How do states produce it? And how do states use it to fight wars? The most prominent scholarship on war focuses on its causes and resolutions. Yet the actual conduct of war remains relatively less appreciated. Drawing on economic concepts such as “factors of production” and “comparative advantage,” this book constructs a new political economy theory of how states produce and use military power. Power Production Theory argues that operational military power is a function of capital (high-skilled officers, technicians, and equipment) and labor (low-skilled enlisted men), which are substitutable. The optimal mix of military factors for a state depends on their relative costs, which is determined by a state’s stock of civilian land, labor, and capital. This book seeks to demonstrate the empirical validity of Power Production Theory. It finds that most states constitute militaries during peacetime that reflect their civilian economies, and states that do not create such militaries -- either by compulsion in the case of resource-rich states or by selection in many other instances -- suffer from reduced military effectiveness during wartime. It also evidences that states at war emphasize targeting their opponents’ lagging factor of production to maximize their attacks’ marginal effects. In short, this book demonstrates that war’s conduct is deeply rooted in economic logic and has substantial implications for understanding force constitution, military effectiveness, and operational targeting
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Why Summit Optics May Help De-escalate Public Appetite for Conflict
Full text linkAs competition between democracies and autocratic adversaries such as North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China intensifies, democratic publics may increasingly pressure their politicians to take a more confrontational stance. The implications are dangerous. Public pressure for confrontation during the Cold War caused numerous foreign policy fiascos. Public pressure also at times undermined the broad political unity necessary for concluding diplomatic agreements— even between democratic allies. How then, as the world enters a new era of great power competition, can public pressure and anger be defused and foreign policy put on a more rational footing? This policy brief, part of a series on great power competition, argues that bilateral summits with autocratic leaders may have a key role to play in shifting the public’s collective emotional ethos. It analyzes results from a large-scale survey experiment, designed around the historic 2018 Singapore Summit, which represented the first-ever meeting of the leaders of North Korea and the United States and was preceded by months of saber rattling. According to conventional logic the Summit was worthless: It produced a joint communiqué with “no concrete specifics” and had no effect on President Trump’s approval rating. Yet evidence shows that joint photographs from the Summit reduced bellicosity in American public opinion towards North Korea by allowing President Trump to act as a visual empathetic mediator. The Singapore Summit thus broadly evinces the potential value of bilateral summits to reduce tensions with autocratic adversaries
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
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