185,957 research outputs found
Norman J. Phillips
No full text"Norman J. Phillips Ldg. O.C. H.M.A.S. Melville F3436 1941 - 1943."Norman J. Phillips. Leading Cook (O) His Majesty's Australian Ship Melville F3436 1941 - 1943
Wage and Price Phillips Curves
No full textIn this paper we introduce a small Keynesian model of economic growth which is centered around two advanced types of Phillips curves, one for money wages and one for prices, both being augmented by perfect myopic foresight and supplemented by a measure of the medium-term inflationary climate updated in an adaptive fashion. The model contains two potentially destabilizing feedback chains, the so-called Mundell and Rose-effects. We estimate parsimonious and congruent Phillips curves for money wages and prices in the US over the past five decades. Using the parameters of the empirical Phillips curves, we show that the growth path of the private sector of the model economy is likely to be surrounded by centrifugal forces. Convergence to this growth path can be generated in two ways: a Blanchard-Katz-type error-correction mechanism in the money-wage Phillips curve or a modified Taylor rule that is augmented by a term, which transmits increases in the wage share (real unit labor costs) to increases in the nominal rate of interest. Thus the model is characterized by local instability of the wage-price spiral, which however can be tamed by appropriate wage or monetary policies. Our empirical analysis finds the error-correction mechanism being ineffective in both Phillips curves suggesting that the stability of the post-war US macroeconomy originates from the stabilizing role of monetary policy.Phillips curves, Mundell effect, Rose effect, monetary policy, Taylor rule, inflation, unemployment, instability
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Oral History Interview with J. O. Phillips, August 7, 1981
No full textInterview with Dr. J. O. Phillips, a United States Navy veteran from Fort Worth, Texas, regarding his experiences and memories of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor of December 7,1941 while aboard the USS Tangier
Evolving Phillips trade-off
No full textWe characterise the evolution of the U.S. unemployment-inflation trade-off since the late XIX century era via a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR. The Great Inflation episode appears as historically unique along several dimensions. In particular, the shape of the ‘Phillips loop’–which is defined in terms of the impulse-response functions of inflation and unemployment’s deviations from equilibrium–was, during those years, clearly out of line with respect to the rest of the sample period for all structural innovations except money demand shocks. During the Great Depression, on the other hand, the Phillips trade-off did not exhibit any peculiar qualitative feature, so that, when seen through these lenses, the 1930s only stand out because of the sheer size of the macroeconomic fluctuation. The historical evolution of the Phillips trade-off exhibits virtually no connection with the evolution of the extent of trade openness of the U.S. economy. Although, by itself, this does not rule out a possible impact of globalisation on the slope of the trade-off in recent years, it clearly suggests that, historically, the evolution of the trade-off has been dominated by factors other than trade openness. JEL Classification: E30, E32Bayesian VARs, Globalisation, Great Depression, Great Inflation, identified VARs, Lucas Critique, Phillips trade-off, stochastic volatility, time-varying parameters
Oral History Interview with J. O. Phillips, August 7, 1981
No full textInterview with Dr. J. O. Phillips, a United States Navy veteran from Fort Worth, Texas, regarding his experiences and memories of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor of December 7,1941 while aboard the USS Tangier
A taxa de inflação e a utilização da capacidade instalada: a curva de Phillips para o Brasil de 2003 a 2014
No full textTCC (graduação) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina. Centro Sócio-Econômico. Economia.Este estudo tem como objetivo a estimação de uma curva de Phillips brasileira no período 2003-2014 empregando dados relativos à inflação e à utilização da capacidade instalada. A Curva de Phillips foi estimada a partir da metodologia de Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários. A inflação foi especificada como função da expectativa inflacionária, da utilização da capacidade instalada e do repasse cambial. Os resultados demonstraram que, para o período, e com os dados utilizados, a taxa de inflação é influenciada tanto pela primeira diferença da expectativa inflacionária em t quanto pela primeira diferença da expectativa inflacionária em t-1, a utilização da capacidade instalada apresentou um relacionamento ambíguo e o repasse cambial não se mostrou significante na explicação da taxa de inflação da economia brasileira. A conclusão do trabalho foi de que a curva de Phillips, para o período examinado e com a utilização da capacidade como proxy da atividade econômica, não explica a dinâmica dos preços no Brasil (SACHSIDA; RIBEIRO; SANTOS; 2009). Chega-se a esse desfecho após a utilização da capacidade instalada não apresentar um comportamento satisfatório quando relacionada à taxa de inflação
The South African Phillips Curve: How Applicable is the Gordon Model?
No full textIs there a Phillips curve relationship present in South Africa and if so, what form does it take? Traditionally the way to estimate the Phillips curve is merely to regress the change in the price level on a measure of the output gap (or the deviation of actual unemployment from the NAIRU). However, Gordon (1990:481-5) has argued that estimating the Phillips curve in this manner biases the estimated results. Instead, Gordon (1997; 1989) puts forward his so-called triangular model that controls for inertia effects, output level effects and rates-of-change (in output) effects. He applies the model to several European countries, the US and Japan and finds meaningful results. The question this paper poses is whether or not the triangular model also applies to South Africa. In estimating the Phillips curve for South Africa the paper also experiments with four versions of the output gap, based on four different methods to estimate long run output, including the standard Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and the production function approach. There are several variants of the Phillips curve. The first, as estimated by Phillips (1958) himself, measures the relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. However, other versions consider the relationship between price inflation and unemployment or price inflation and output. This paper focuses on the latter, given the absence of quarterly unemployment data in South Africa, as well as the lack of a reliable and sufficiently long unemployment time series. The paper first presents an overview of literature on the Phillips curve and its estimation for South Africa and other countries. This is followed by the second section that considers the model to be estimated, the data as well as the discussion of the alternative measures of the output gap. The third section presents the estimated results followed by section four that contains the conclusion and a discussion of the policy implications.
Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of the n ew Keynesian Phillips curve for Australia
No full textThis paper uses a recent panel method of Russell and Banerjee (2008) to estimate the new Keynesian Phillips curve for Australia. Our estimates show that while the hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve and backward looking conventional Phillips curve are well determined, estimates of the Phillips curve with the pure forward looking expectations are unsatisfactory.Panel data estimates, new Keynesian Phillips curve, Australia and Unit roots in the rate of inflation.
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