2,947 research outputs found
The South African Phillips Curve: How Applicable is the Gordon Model?
No full textIs there a Phillips curve relationship present in South Africa and if so, what form does it take? Traditionally the way to estimate the Phillips curve is merely to regress the change in the price level on a measure of the output gap (or the deviation of actual unemployment from the NAIRU). However, Gordon (1990:481-5) has argued that estimating the Phillips curve in this manner biases the estimated results. Instead, Gordon (1997; 1989) puts forward his so-called triangular model that controls for inertia effects, output level effects and rates-of-change (in output) effects. He applies the model to several European countries, the US and Japan and finds meaningful results. The question this paper poses is whether or not the triangular model also applies to South Africa. In estimating the Phillips curve for South Africa the paper also experiments with four versions of the output gap, based on four different methods to estimate long run output, including the standard Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and the production function approach. There are several variants of the Phillips curve. The first, as estimated by Phillips (1958) himself, measures the relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. However, other versions consider the relationship between price inflation and unemployment or price inflation and output. This paper focuses on the latter, given the absence of quarterly unemployment data in South Africa, as well as the lack of a reliable and sufficiently long unemployment time series. The paper first presents an overview of literature on the Phillips curve and its estimation for South Africa and other countries. This is followed by the second section that considers the model to be estimated, the data as well as the discussion of the alternative measures of the output gap. The third section presents the estimated results followed by section four that contains the conclusion and a discussion of the policy implications.
Modelling Inflation in Australia
No full textThis paper estimates a range of single-equation models of inflation for Australia. We find that traditional models, such as the expectations-augmented standard Phillips curve or mark-up models, outperform the more micro-founded New-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) in explaining trimmed mean inflation, both in terms of in-sample fit and significance of coefficients. This in large part reflects the weak instruments problem in the estimation of the NKPC, and is partly corrected by including a direct measure of inflation expectations, but we still find that the unemployment rate or growth in marginal costs (unit labour cost and import prices) provides a better fit than either the output gap or level of real marginal costs. These traditional models also perform well in out-of-sample tests, relative to alternative models and some common benchmarks, with the standard Phillips curve clearly superior to these benchmarks on this test. As inflation has become better anchored and hence less variable, the magnitude of the errors of the single-equation models has declined, although the explanatory power (in terms of R-squared) has fallen together with this greater stability. We also investigate the empirical importance of some other variables that are commonly cited as determinants of inflation, and find little evidence that either commodity prices or the growth rate of money directly influence Australian underlying inflation.inflation; modelling
Influence of temperature and sliding speed on the subsurface microstructure evolution of EN AW-6060 under sticking friction conditions
No full textThis article may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and AIP Publishing. This article appeared in AIP Conference Proceedings 1896, 140012 (2017) and may be found at https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5008168.The microstructure evolution of the friction boundary layer of the aluminum alloy EN AW-6060 was investigated. Sticking friction tests at different temperatures and sliding speeds were carried out. A severe deformation below the friction surface was observed by means of LOM and EBSD mapping. Thus, the thickness variation and the grain structure of the high deformation zone could be described. Fibrous structure was observed at 300 °C and 400 °C, while equiaxed grains with high misorientation angle (>15°) were generated at higher temperatures. Additionally, abnormal grain growth and coarse grains were detected at high sliding speeds (10 mm/s, 42 mm/s) at 450°C and 500 °C respectively
Examining the identification and management of alcohol withdrawal admissions to acute hospitals
No full textBackgroundAlcohol related admissions to acute hospitals in England are increasing, resulting in unmet need in terms of identification and management of alcohol withdrawal (AW) outside of specialist addictions settings. Early detection, monitoring and treatment of AW is crucial in reducing risk of mortality, and optimising treatment resulting in fewer complications.AimThis thesis aimed to examine how AW is identified and managed in acute hospitals.MethodsA systematic review of identification of AW was conducted as well as analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) Data to explore demographic and clinical predictors of AW and a detailed clinical audit of AW admissions in an acute hospital.ResultsThere is no systematic application of screening tools or approaches to identifying AW in acute hospitals. Patients with an ICD-10 AW diagnosis are significantly more likely (compared with all other diagnoses) to be male, White British, admitted as an emergency, admitted on a weekend and live in areas of high deprivation. Adherence to administration of AW medications varies, and prescribing of benzodiazepines does not adhere to NICE recommendations with regards to quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption; and onward referral rates to specialist community alcohol services are low.DiscussionThis work will inform the delivery of hospital-based alcohol care supported by Alcohol Care Teams as prioritised by NHS England, by highlighting areas where energies could be focussed to improve identification and management of AW patients in acute hospitals. Key areas to focus on would be a standardised approach to universal screening and identification of alcohol use disorders, exploring those predictors of AW to establish the mechanisms behind those findings (e.g. why weekend admission is significantly associated with AW), and improving delivery of care for admitted patients in terms of medication adherence, monitoring and surveillance of AW syndrome, contact with alcohol specialists and engagement with community teams
Examining the identification and management of alcohol withdrawal admissions to acute hospitals
No full textBackgroundAlcohol related admissions to acute hospitals in England are increasing, resulting in unmet need in terms of identification and management of alcohol withdrawal (AW) outside of specialist addictions settings. Early detection, monitoring and treatment of AW is crucial in reducing risk of mortality, and optimising treatment resulting in fewer complications.AimThis thesis aimed to examine how AW is identified and managed in acute hospitals.MethodsA systematic review of identification of AW was conducted as well as analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) Data to explore demographic and clinical predictors of AW and a detailed clinical audit of AW admissions in an acute hospital.ResultsThere is no systematic application of screening tools or approaches to identifying AW in acute hospitals. Patients with an ICD-10 AW diagnosis are significantly more likely (compared with all other diagnoses) to be male, White British, admitted as an emergency, admitted on a weekend and live in areas of high deprivation. Adherence to administration of AW medications varies, and prescribing of benzodiazepines does not adhere to NICE recommendations with regards to quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption; and onward referral rates to specialist community alcohol services are low.DiscussionThis work will inform the delivery of hospital-based alcohol care supported by Alcohol Care Teams as prioritised by NHS England, by highlighting areas where energies could be focussed to improve identification and management of AW patients in acute hospitals. Key areas to focus on would be a standardised approach to universal screening and identification of alcohol use disorders, exploring those predictors of AW to establish the mechanisms behind those findings (e.g. why weekend admission is significantly associated with AW), and improving delivery of care for admitted patients in terms of medication adherence, monitoring and surveillance of AW syndrome, contact with alcohol specialists and engagement with community teams
Curva de Phillips: uma construção para o Brasil (2002 – 2013)
No full textThe relationship between inflation and unemployment, called the Phillips curve was used by several economies since 1960 as a key theoretical tool for the development of economic policies. The pioneering study by AW Phillips developed an empirical analysis with data on unemployment and change in wages in the UK, found a tradeoff between the variables, which enabled the economic policy makers choose between a low unemployment with high inflation and high unemployment with low inflation. However, in the 1970s, the theory of the Phillips Curve was put in check because of stagflation, the presence of high rates of inflation and unemployment. The changes in the economic scenario caused changes in the generation of socioeconomic data. Thus, the Phillips theory underwent theoretical changes over the years in order to further pursue its explanatory power. Given the above, the question arises whether the applicability of the Phillips curve is still appropriate for today's economies. This study estimated a Phillips curve for the Brazilian economy in the 2002-2013 period, using an econometric approach. The analysis consisted in the use of time series, by means of co-integration technique for data on inflation, unemployment in that period. The results, considering the variables applied, show that it was not possible to verify an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment in Brazil during the study period. It is intended in future work to add more variables to the model in order to get Phillips curve estimates for Brazil more significant.A relação entre inflação e desemprego, denominada curva de Phillips foi utilizada por diversas economias a partir de 1960 como uma ferramenta teórica fundamental na elaboração de políticas econômicas. O estudo pioneiro de A. W. Phillips que elaborou uma análise empírica com dados sobre desemprego e variação dos salários no Reino Unido, constatou um trade off entre as variáveis, que possibilitou aos formuladores de políticas econômicas escolher entre um baixo desemprego com alta inflação ou alto desemprego com baixa inflação. Porém, na década de 1970, a teoria da Curva de Phillips foi colocada em cheque em decorrência da estagflação, presença de altas taxas de inflação e de desemprego. As mudanças no cenário econômico provocavam alterações na geração dos dados socioeconômicos. Deste modo, a teoria de Phillips passou por transformações teóricas com o passar dos anos a fim de continuar válido o seu poder explicativo. Diante do exposto, surge a questão se a aplicabilidade da curva de Phillips continua adequada para as economias atuais. O presente estudo estimou uma curva de Phillips para economia brasileira no período de 2002 a 2013, utilizando uma abordagem econométrica. A análise consistiu na utilização de séries temporais, por meio da técnica de co-integração para os dados sobre inflação e desemprego no período citado. Os resultados obtidos, considerando as variáveis aplicadas, demonstram que não foi possível verificar uma relação inversa entre inflação e desemprego no Brasil durante o período analisado. Pretende-se em trabalho futuro acrescentar mais variáveis ao modelo a fim de obter estimativas de curva de Phillips para o Brasil mais significativas
Author-Suggested, Weighted Citation Index: A Novel Approach for Determining the Contribution of Individual Researchers
No full textA novel scientometric index, named ‘author-suggested, weighted citation index’ (Aw-index) is proposed to indicate the scientific contribution of any individual researcher. For calculation of the Aw-index, it is suggested that during the submission of a scholarly article, the corresponding author would provide a statement, agreed upon by all the authors, containing weightage factors against each author of the article. The author who contributed more to the article would secure a higher weightage factor. The summation of the weightage factors of all the authors of an article should be unity. The citation points a researcher receives from a scholarly publication is the product of his/her weightage factor for that article and the total number of citations of the article. The Aw-index of any individual researcher is the summation of the citation points he/she receives for all his/her publications as an author. The Aw-index provides the opportunity to the group of authors of a multi-authored article to determine the quantum of partial citations to be attributed to each of them. Through an illustrative example, a comparison of the proposed index with the major scientometric indexes is presented to highlight the advantages of the Aw-index
Author response: Anastomotic leak does impact on long-term survival in gastric cancer patients
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