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    Perel, Pablo

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    The risk of transfusion-transmitted infections in sub-Saharan Africa.

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    BACKGROUND: Blood transfusions carry the risk of transmitting infections. This risk has been studied in detail in high-income countries but not in sub-Saharan Africa. This study estimates the risks of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), or hepatitis C virus (HCV) from a single unit of blood in sub-Saharan Africa. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A mathematical model was constructed to quantify transfusion risks across 45 sub-Saharan African countries using three components: the risk of a contaminated unit entering the blood supply, the risk that the unit will be given to a susceptible patient, and the risk that receipt of the unit will lead to infection in the recipient. Variables included prevalence of infection in donors, extent of blood testing, test sensitivity, and susceptibility of recipients. Data from the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region and a systematic review of the literature were used to parameterize the model. Uncertainty in the risk estimates was quantified using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The median overall risks of becoming infected with HIV, HBV, and HCV from a blood transfusion in sub-Saharan Africa were 1, 4.3, and 2.5 infections per 1000 units, respectively. If annual transfusion requirements projected by the WHO were met, transfusions alone would be responsible for 28,595 HBV infections, 16,625 HCV infections, and 6650 HIV infections every year. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the true risks may be even higher. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to systematically quantify the risks of transfusion-transmitted infections across sub-Saharan Africa. Although the results are limited by the quality and quantity of available data, these may be the most reliable estimates at this time

    Cost-effectiveness analysis of administering tranexamic acid to bleeding trauma patients using evidence from the CRASH-2 trial.

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    OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost effectiveness of giving tranexamic acid (TXA) to bleeding trauma patients in low, middle and high income settings. METHODS: The CRASH-2 trial showed that TXA administration reduces the risk of death in bleeding trauma patients with a small but statistically significant increase in non-intensive care stay. A Markov model was used to assess the cost effectiveness of TXA in Tanzania, India and the United Kingdom (UK). The health outcome was the number of life years gained (LYs). Two costs were considered: the cost of administering TXA and the cost of additional days in hospital. Cost data were obtained from hospitals, World Health Organization (WHO) database and UK reference costs. Cost-effectiveness was measured in international dollars ()perLY.Bothdeterministicandprobabilisticsensitivityanalyseswereperformedtotesttherobustnessoftheresultstomodelassumptions.FINDINGS:AdministeringTXAtobleedingtraumapatientswithinthreehoursofinjurysavedanestimated372,315and755LYsper1,000traumapatientsinTanzania,IndiaandtheUKrespectively.ThecostofgivingTXAto1,000patientswas) per LY. Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results to model assumptions. FINDINGS: Administering TXA to bleeding trauma patients within three hours of injury saved an estimated 372, 315 and 755 LYs per 1,000 trauma patients in Tanzania, India and the UK respectively. The cost of giving TXA to 1,000 patients was 17,483 in Tanzania, 19,550inIndiaand19,550 in India and 30,830 in the UK. The incremental cost of giving TXA versus not giving TXA was 18,025inTanzania,18,025 in Tanzania, 20,670 in India and 48,002intheUK.TheestimatedincrementalcostperLYgainedofadministeringTXAis48,002 in the UK. The estimated incremental cost per LY gained of administering TXA is 48, 66and66 and 64 in Tanzania, India and the UK respectively. CONCLUSION: Early administration of TXA to bleeding trauma patients is likely to be highly cost effective in low, middle and high income settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This paper uses data collected by the CRASH 2 trial: Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN86750102, Clinicaltrials.govNCT00375258 and South African Clinical Trial Register DOH-27-0607-1919

    Giving tranexamic acid to reduce surgical bleeding in sub-Saharan Africa: an economic evaluation.

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    BACKGROUND: The identification of safe and effective alternatives to blood transfusion is a public health priority. In sub-Saharan Africa, blood shortage is a cause of mortality and morbidity. Blood transfusion can also transmit viral infections. Giving tranexamic acid (TXA) to bleeding surgical patients has been shown to reduce both the number of blood transfusions and the volume of blood transfused. The objective of this study is to investigate whether routinely administering TXA to bleeding elective surgical patients is cost effective by both averting deaths occurring from the shortage of blood, and by preventing infections from blood transfusions. METHODS: A decision tree was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of providing TXA compared with no TXA in patients with surgical bleeding in four African countries with different human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence and blood donation rates (Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania and Botswana). The principal outcome measures were cost per life saved and cost per infection averted (HIV, Hepatitis B, Hepatitis C) averted in 2007 International dollars ().TheprobabilityofreceivingabloodtransfusionwithandwithoutTXAandtheriskofbloodborneviralinfectionwereestimated.Theimpactofuncertaintyinmodelparameterswasexploredusingonewaydeterministicsensitivityanalyses.ProbabilisticsensitivityanalysiswasperformedusingMonteCarlosimulation.RESULTS:Theincrementalcostperlifesavedis). The probability of receiving a blood transfusion with and without TXA and the risk of blood borne viral infection were estimated. The impact of uncertainty in model parameters was explored using one-way deterministic sensitivity analyses. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed using Monte Carlo simulation. RESULTS: The incremental cost per life saved is 87 for Kenya and $93 for Tanzania. In Botswana and South Africa, TXA administration is not life saving but is highly cost saving since fewer units of blood are transfused. Further, in Botswana the administration of TXA averts one case of HIV and four cases of Hepatitis B (HBV) per 1,000 surgical patients. In South Africa, one case of HBV is averted per 1,000 surgical patients. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the model. CONCLUSION: An economic argument can be made for giving TXA to bleeding elective surgical patients. In countries where there is a blood shortage, TXA would be a cost effective way to reduce mortality. In countries where there is no blood shortage, TXA would reduce healthcare costs and avert blood borne infections

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed

    Variations on the Author

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    “Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship

    Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis

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    We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis

    Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts

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    We conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more sophisticated methods

    Author Index

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