1,721,018 research outputs found
Evaluating forecasting accuracy of the temporally aggregated space-time autoregressive model
No full textThis article aims at analysing the effect of temporal aggregation in space-time autoregressive models. By means of a simulation experiment, it is shown that, the greater the spatial dependence in time series, the lower the bias due to temporal aggregation. However, the ratio between the average mean squared forecasting errors for daily data and that for yearly data seems to decrease for high parameter values
A note on the inoperability input-output model
No full textIn this note, we propose some comments and some extensions of the inoperability input-output model (IIOM), as recently proposed by b14Santos and Haimes (2004). In particular, we propose the use of some analytic tools capable of providing information on the reaction of sectors subsequent to a terrorist attack on infrastructure service sectors. These tools, namely, the field of influence and the multiplier product matrix, provide information on the way sectors react to a shock on the aggregate demand and/or to a (temporary or permanent) change of production function coefficients. Finally, using the 2003 65 sectors input-output matrix for the U.S. economy, a simple empirical example is presented. © 2006 Society for Risk Analysis
Lockdown measures and air quality: evidence from Italian provinces
No full textThe aim of this short communication is to estimate the effects of the implementation of more restrictive lockdown measures on pollution levels in Italy. Using a time series of weekly concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 for the period 2016–2020 across 71 provinces, we find that the introduction of lockdown measures reduced the air concentration levels of PM10 and NO2 by 17–18%, while their effect on PM2.5 remains unclear. These results indicate that the lockdown had a significant positive impact in terms of lives saved and improved air quality
The long-term economic effects of aridification
Full text linkWe conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis of the economic effects of desertification, exploiting a novel grid-cell global dataset from 1990 to 2015. Our measure of desertification combines annual variation in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the soil. To ensure accuracy, we employed advanced spatial econometric techniques to account for the interdependence between economic development and both time and location. Our results indicate that a one standard deviation increase in desertification is associated with a 0.6% to 0.9% decrease in GDP per capita. Based on these estimates, we have predicted the potential impact of future desertification on economic development, with a particular focus on Africa and Southeast Asia
Aridification, precipitations and crop productivity: evidence from the aridity index
No full textThe economic effects of global warming have gained considerable attention in the recent economic literature. While the relationship between rainfall and agriculture is well known, precipitations alone do not capture the soil water availability, which depends on the evaporation of the water (potential evapotranspiration [PET]). This paper presents evidence of the relationship between aridification and agricultural productivity. We show that areas that have experienced increased precipitations have become arider due to increased PET. We then project future aridification patterns. We find that the global arid area will increase by 3.9 per cent by 2040. This implies a global loss of about 20 million tons of maize, 19 million tons of rice, 8 million tons of soybeans and 21 million tons of wheat until 2040 if no action to combat desertification is taken
Climate, desertification, and local human development: evidence from 1564 regions around the world
No full textHow global warming affects human development is a central question for economists as well as social scientists. While most of the literature has focused on the impact of weather on income, less is known on the relationship between climate and local human development. This paper considers shocks in precipitation, temperature, and an original measure of soil aridity to first exploit the association between climate warming and human development, and second, on its dimensions. We show that while precipitations do not have a significant long-term impact on human development growth, variations in temperature and potential evapotranspiration negatively affect two of the three determinants of the Human Development Index, namely life expectancy at birth and education. These results suggest that other climate indicators, such as the potential evapo-transpiration of the soil, should be considered in addition to the standard indicators, when evaluating the localized economic effects of climate change
Geography, institutions and regional economic performance Advances in spatial science. Springer. ISBN
No full textThe book brings together contributions by scholars from several countries and different “sister” disciplines (Economic Geography, Urban and Regional Economics, Innovation Studies) with different approaches to the same crucial issue: how geography, culture and institutions influence regional economic performance. It includes a number of relevant insights into these complex relations covering different-though complementary-streams of literature in order to emphasize their points of contact and areas of consensus (or disagreement).
The role of institutional and cultural factors in shaping regional economic dynamics is analysed together with the impact of clusters, accessibility, urbanization processes and localised inter-firm linkages. The dynamic interactions of economic agents across space are also explored in depth by analysing the geography of trade flows, labour and capital mobility. Empirical analyses cover the whole European Union with some chapters focused on specific European countries but also on non-European and emerging economies.
The book effectively demonstrates that regional development is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon, the in-depth understanding of which calls for the simultaneous consideration of a variety of phenomena and the structural characteristics of places and agents. The understanding of regional economic performance hence calls for an explicit consideration of both “hard” and “soft ” factors of development, especially in terms of geography, culture and institutions
Selective migration, regional growth and convergence: evidence from Italy
No full textThis paper studies the link between regional disparities and migration flows, focusing on the skill content of migration. Disparities may lead to migration, which should reduce them; but at the same time if migration is skill-selective, it may have an opposite effect and reinforce the richest regions. The object of this empirical analysis is Italy, a country where unskilled interregional migration flows were a large and very well-known phenomenon during the 1950s and 1970s, whilst in recent years, after three decades of very low labour mobility, thousands of Southern graduates have been moving to Northern regions. What is the economic impact of those flows of selective migration? Using data covering the period 1980–2001, it is found that although a slight process of convergence occurred between Italian regions, the loss of human capital in the South was detrimental to regional growth
Identità territoriale e migrazioni: prime evidenze empiriche per l’Europa
No full textLa mobilità degli individui è cruciale per il raggiungimento degli equilibri territoriali. Negli Stati Uniti, dove tradizionalmente la migrazione interna è molto alta (anche se in declino negli ultimi anni), un’ampia letteratura sostiene che il sistema non sia lontano dall’equilibrio spaziale poiché la migrazione e il mercato delle abitazioni reagiscono velocemente a shock temporanei. In Europa, invece, ove la popolazione è notoriamente meno mobile, i sistemi sembrano essere lontani dall’equilibrio a causa della mancanza di meccanismi di aggiustamento automatico. Questo lavoro sostiene la tesi secondo cui, attualmente, uno degli elementi fondamentali di frizione alla mobilità degli europei sia la cultura, intesa non solo in termini di differenze linguistiche e istituzionali, ma anche come legami emotivi e culturali rispetto al paese di nascita. In modo particolare, nelle aree più periferiche, l’attaccamento alle tradizioni locali, alla famiglia e agli amici, riassunto dal termine “identità territoriale” sembra giocare un ruolo decisivo nel limitare lo spostamento. La verifi ca empirica di tale proposizione è affi data ad un modello stimato su dati micro in cui si osserva come la decisione di migrare sia funzione negativa di un indicatore di identità territoriale ottenuto dalle risposte ad una domanda della European Values Survey (EVS). Parole chiave: migrazione interregionale, UE, cultura, European Value Survey
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