115 research outputs found
Dynamics of new technology diffusion : a study of the Indian Automotive Industry
No full textVanuit een eclectisch kader analyseert dit onderzoek de processen van toepassing op bedrijfsniveau van geavanceerde productietechnologieën in de Indiase automobielindustrie. Mamata Parhi vergeleek het vermogen van bedrijven om zich aan te passen aan nieuwe technologieën met hun relatie met de externe omgeving. Met gebruikmaking van deze gegevens bouwde Mamata Parhi een dynamisch verspreidingsmodel waarbij ze rekening hield met een brede reeks determinanten – structurele, organisatiegerichte, marktgerichte en ruimtelijke – die de multidimensionale aard van verspreidingsprocessen op een geschikte manier weergeven. Terwijl de eigen structurele kenmerken van bedrijven, zoals interne bekwaamheid, bedrijfsgrootte en technologisch niveau fundamenteel zijn, blijkt de intensiteit van hun interacties, vooral met hun klanten, van centraal belang voor hogere toepassing. Deze dissertatie voorziet dat, met de sterker wordende concurrentie in de mondiale automobielindustrie, die bedrijven die over het algemeen sterke fundamenten bouwen en tevens de synergieën vanuit hun externe omgeving endogeniseren de grootste kans hebben om vooraan te lopen bij hogere innovatie en snellere verspreiding
Spatial growth volatility and age-structured human capital dynamics in Europe
No full textWe study dynamic output co-movements in Europe in a spatial setting where proportion of human capital and its appropriation pattern in production define distance among countries. Significant spatial output and shock correlations are found suggesting possible welfare-enhancing cross-country policy coordinatio
Credit composition and housing price dynamics: a disaggregation approach
No full textWhile credit plays an instrumental role in housing price dynamics, existing work has produced conflicting evidence of its real impact. This paper reconciles various inconclusive findings via a disaggregation strategy to decompose aggregate credit into credit-to-the-real economy (cr) and credit-to-the-asset markets (cf ). We argue that these two credit components exert theoretically expected and distinct impacts on housing prices, identified separately through a housing demand and a housing supply credit-circulation channel. Using an international panel dataset and treating for periodic cycles, our panel VAR estimations show that cr and housing prices depict a mutually reinforcing positive relationship. However, cf exerts a negative but negligible impact on housing prices in the short-run; it has a strong and positive effect in the long-run. Further, controlling for effects of economic policy uncertainty strengthens the interactions between housing prices and the two credit components. Our results are robust and suggest that close monitoring of credit allocation to housing demand and supply sides, as well as the extent of pump-priming resource allocation to the real economy, should be of interest to policymakers
How interdependent are cross-country happiness dynamics?
No full textWe characterize evolution of cross-country happiness dynamics by two important factors. The first one concerns inertia, which we model in a non-linear and stochastic environment to reflect on how an agent’s own past level of happiness adapts to the current level. Second, we allow an explicit role of socio-economic ‘distance’ in facilitating dynamic interdependence among happiness levels. A series of hypotheses are tested on a long-time series data for a sample of twelve European countries. We find that inertia has a strong positive and non-linear effect on countries’ steady-state happiness convergence. The effects are more pronounced when relative income and macroeconomic variables are allowed to determine the correlation structure of happiness. The main novelty is the consideration of spatio-temporal dynamic aspects of happiness where complementarity in the latter across economies is rigorously tested and established. We find that after accounting for the effects of heterogenous socio-economic dynamics, cross-country happiness is indeed complementary: a unit rise in happiness level in one country raises happiness in others. Our analytical model and empirical findings have interesting socio-economic policy implication
Space matters: Understanding the real effects of macroeconomic variations in cross-country housing price movements
Full text linkChanges in macroeconomic conditions can significantly determine directions and magnitudes of cross-country housing price movements. We demonstrate that such effects are consistently over-estimated when ‘spatial frictions’ are merely assumed, but are not explicitly modeled in the empirical framework. The extent of over-estimation bias has significant policy implications
Dynamics of Distribution and Diffusion of New Technology
No full textThis book presents a comprehensive study of adoption and diffusion of technology in developing countries in a historical perspective. Combining the development of growth trajectories of the Indian economy in general and its manufacturing industry in particular, the book highlights the effective marriage between qualitative and quantitative methods for a better understanding and explaining of many hidden dynamic behaviors of adoption and diffusion trend in manufacturing industry. The use of various econometric methods is aimed to equip readers to make a judgement of the current state of diffusion pattern of new technologies in India and simulate a desirable future pattern in view of the various pro-industrial growth policies
The Power of Investors’ Optimism and Pessimism in Oil Market Forecasting
No full textBy modelling dynamism in the global oil market by three essential market-centric observables (viz., Market Expansion, Market Regime, and Market Liquidity), we study forecasting potential of the future oil markets within a memory-driven interdependence setting. We combine spot prices with our derived market proxies to produce representative global market proxies. The latter are used to quantify the extent of static and dynamic persistence within the system. Our extensive empirical investigation exploits the rich features of fractionally cointegrated vector autoregression, where the rate of disequilibrium error correction within the system is modelled to be slow, approximating real life system dynamics. An advantage is that it explains why we often experience a slow response of a policy intervention. We present robust evidence of both system-wide long-memory and a long-memory in the market-centric observables. We introduce a memory of memory estimation to discern the magnitude of the relative rate of acceleration/deceleration of shocks within each observable, which reflects on the overall stability of the system. Our results show significant degree of non-linear error dissipation and high degree of informational inefficiency. Rigorous out-of-sample forecasting exercise produces robust predictions and demonstrate superiority of our approach
How effective are policy interventions in a spatially-embedded international real estate market?
Full text linkWe introduce the role of `space' in analysing the effect of macroeconomic policy interventions on cross-country housing price movements. We build an empirically testable analytical model and test our theoretical predictions for a panel of European countries over the period 1985-2015. Our aim is to demonstrate that while macroeconomic policy exerts a significant impact on international housing markets, the magnitude of such impacts may be overestimated in the absence of spatial frictions. To test our hypotheses, we employ a spatial dynamic panel method and quantify \emph{intra}- and \emph{inter}-country differences of the effects of macroeconomic policy interventions on spatially interdependent housing markets. Endogeneity issues arise in our estimation, which we ameliorate by employing the spatial Durbin model for panel data. Following this approach, we include spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal lags for identification purposes. We show that a spatially-embedded model produces relatively smaller and correct signs for macroeconomic variables in contrast to the traditional non-spatial model. It is concluded that empirical estimates from the traditional model are consistently over-estimated. These have significant policy implications for the exact role of macroeconomic interventions in housing price movements. A battery of robustness tests and evaluations of predictive performance confirm our results
The predictive effects of Fintech-ESG dynamic interdependence: A global perspective on Cleantech energy transition risk
No full textFintech plays an instrumental role in advancing global ESG objectives, leveraging a more inclusive, transparent, and accountable financial system. Our paper explores the occurrence of dynamic linkages between Fintech and ESG across various dimensions, examining how the strength of their interconnectedness drives the energy transition towards clean technology. Using daily data from 31st May 2018 to 1st August 2024, we apply a time-varying parameter robust Granger causality method coupled with quantile technique to provide the first attempt in the literature on the dynamic causal patterns between the strength of Fintech-ESG connection and Cleantech energy transition risk (CETR). We find asymmetry in the connectedness across different quantiles, with Fintech sectors acting primarily as shock transmitters, while most ESG indexes are receivers. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict reduces the connectedness between Fintech and ESG, with minimal effects on spillover direction. Our results show a heterogeneous response to shocks in developed markets, while developing ones tend to react more homogeneously. Additionally, we find strong evidence of a time-varying causal relationship between Fintech-ESG connectedness and CETR, with the conflict exacerbating asymmetry, especially at the lower quantile. Recent trends suggest a modest resurgence in this connection, signalling a re-emergence of the Fintech-ESG connection influence on CETR. The impact of extreme events tends to taper-off over time, suggesting that the prolonged conflict-driven market environment may have stabilized sufficiently to restore Fintech's role in promoting ESG initiatives, thereby supporting the ongoing transition to clean technology
Wage differential between caste groups: Are younger and older cohorts different?
Full text linkRecent literature has provided evidence that a gender and caste-based wage discrimination can exert negative economic impact on a country's development process. Given the enormous contribution of young population to India's workforce, we examine whether there is any caste-based discrimination considering ‘demographic’ distinction. Using employment and unemployment National Sample Survey data from India for two rounds during the last two decades (1993 and 2010), we find rising wage gap between privileged and marginalized groups within younger and older cohorts across the distribution and over time. Furthermore, we decompose the wage gap using the counterfactual decomposition into endowment effect (explained by differences in characteristics) and a discrimination effect (attributable to unequal returns to covariates). We find that the discrimination effect against marginalized castes (in both cohorts) decreases, implying an increasing endowment effect across the distribution of the wage gap. The discrimination effect, however, is more pronounced among younger compared to older cohorts
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