133 research outputs found
An Analysis of Speaking Errors of English Club Participants at SMKS Sempena Rokan Hilir
No full textABSTRACT
DELIS RAHAYU (2022): An Analysis of Speaking Errors of English Club Participants at SMKS Sempena Rokan Hilir
The author wrote this research to describe the type of dominant speaking errors by English club participants at SMKS Sempena Rokan Hilir, to describe the frequency and the dominant type, and to explain the errors. This research was descriptive qualitative research. The researcher collected the video of speaking activities conducted by English club participants and the English teacher. The researcher used transcript from the video as the data source. The researcher employed documentation method to collect the data. There were 39 errors found. The researhcer categorized the speaking errors type and the sources based on the theory of Clark and Clark. The research results were 14 silent pauses (35.89%), 3 filled pauses (7.69%), 16 repetition (41.02%), 2 false start (retraced) (5.12%), 2 interjection (5.12%), 1 stutters (2.56%), and 1 slip of tongue (2.56%)
Notions of violence and ethnic cleansing on the eve of the first world war: The Balkan wars of 1912-13
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Υποδειγματοποίηση της μεταβλητότητας των χρηματαγορών
No full textForecasting oil price volatility is considered of major importance for numerous stakeholders, including, policy makers, industries and investors. The first study (Chapter 2) examines and evaluates the main factors that oil price volatility forecasters should consider before constructing their forecasting models. Such factors are related to: i) direct vs iterated forecasts, ii) the incorporation of continuous and jump components, iii) the importance of semi variance volatility measures, and iv) OLS vs time-varying parameter (TVP) estimation procedures. We evaluate the performance of these factors for both the realized and implied volatility measures of the WTI crude oil price, based on statistical loss functions, as well as, their economic use. The results show that depending on whether end-users are interested in forecasting the realized or the implied volatility, the factors influencing the accuracy of forecasts are different.In the third Chapter, we enhance the modelling framework by incorporating exogenous information in the proposed models. Nowadays, it is noteworthy the fact that the global uncertainty plays a major role to the economic outlook and more specifically the financial and energy markets. In this study (Chapter 3), we focus on the impact of the various uncertainty factors on the oil price volatility, which is considered crucial not only for the global economy but also for the financial markets because of its financialization. However, uncertainty can be captured by different factors, which provide dissimilar information to oil price volatility. We categorize those factors to the following classes: Implied volatility indices, financial stress indices and other indicators related to the uncertainty environment, such as economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and business conditions. Our main findings provide strong evidence that taking uncertainty indicators into account enhances the predictive accuracy of oil price volatility at all forecasting horizons. Moreover, the results indicate that the Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) is considered significant for forecasting oil price volatility by combining the different indicators of the three classes and giving the corresponding weight to the model.However, crude oil investors would be interested not only in maximizing their profits but also in minimizing the risk of their portfolios, which could be managed by hedging the crude oil portfolio in an efficient way. In this regard, the existing literature has studied the interrelations between crude oil and other asset classes, including stock, foreign exchange markets and market reflecting macroeconomic conditions focusing mainly on their returns. In this study (Chapter 4), we concentrate on the time-varying correlation of the volatility measures of crude oil and three asset classes using a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model. The main objective of this study is to examine the optimal portfolio weights, constructed by the variance-covariance matrix, for portfolios comprised of the aforementioned volatility measures and to identify whether the investors could benefit from the interactions of the WTI crude oil and the three assets. The aim of this study is to focus on volatility and not on returns, since investors and academics concentrate their attention to the volatility of crude oil recent years. The results of the correlations indicate a time-varying behavior, which gives a signal to investors that they have to re-balance their portfolios regularly in order to minimize their portfolios' risk. Finally, the findings show that the asset that offers higher opportunities for hedging the WTI crude oil volatility is that of the U.S. T-bills, which represents the market related to macroeconomic conditions.Finally, Chapter 5 aims to investigate the predictive information of the daily crude oil realized volatility on the U.S. economy. More specifically, oil price volatility has attracted the attention of the academic community because of its crucial impact on the economic outlook. However, there is a gap in literature with regard to the impact of crude oil price volatility on special aggregates of industrial production. In this study (Chapter 5), we propose MIDAS models including different daily crude oil realized volatility measures in order to investigate their impact in an out-of-sample analysis. For comparison reasons, we study the effect not only of crude oil but also of other assets' realized volatility, such as S&P500 index, U.S. dollar index and U.S. T-bills. Moreover, we set a group of monthly macroeconomic, oil-related and uncertainty-related variables as predictors of the industrial production aggregates in order to evaluate whether the impact of the daily realized volatility measures is significant or the monthly predictors themselves offer adequate information. The results show that crude oil realized positive semivariance can definitely provide higher forecasting performance in the models used for producing energy-related industrial production measures, which is not the case for the non energy-related ones.Η δυνατότητα πρόβλεψης της μεταβλητότητας του πετρελαίου θεωρείται ιδιαίτερα σημαντική για επενδυτές, βιομηχανίες αλλά και διεθνείς θεσμούς. Η πρώτη μελέτη της διατριβής (Κεφάλαιο 2) εξετάζει και αξιολογεί τους παράγοντες που πρέπει να λαμβάνονται υπόψη από τους κατασκευαστές υποδειγμάτων που εστιάζουν σε προβλέψεις της μεταβλητότητας του πετρελαίου. Αυτοί οι παράγοντες σχετίζονται με: i) την άμεση ή επαναλαμβανόμενη διαδικασία δημιουργίας προβλέψεων, ii) την ενσωμάτωση των συνεχών και ξαφνικών ακραίων (“jumps”) όρων, iii) τη σημαντικότητα διαφορετικών μέτρων μεταβλητότητας και iv) τη μέθοδο εκτίμησης των υποδειγμάτων. Η αξιολόγηση των προβλέψεων γίνεται όχι μόνο για την πραγματοποιθείσα αλλά και την τεκμαρτή μεταβλητότητα. Τα αποτελέσματα της ανάλυσης δείχνουν ότι οι παράγοντες που αναφέρονται παραπάνω είναι διαφορετικοί για κάθε είδος μεταβλητότητας.Στο Κεφάλαιο 3, το μεθοδολογικό πλαίσιο ενισχύεται ενσωματώνοντας εξωγενή πληροφορία στα προτεινόμενα υποδείγματα. Πρόσφατα, είναι αξιοσημείωτο το γεγονός ότι η παγκόσμια αβεβαιότητα παίζει πολύ σημαντικό ρόλο στις χρηματαγορές και την αγορά ενέργειας. Στη συγκεκριμένη μελέτη (Κεφάλαιο 3), εστιάζουμε στην επίδραση που έχουν διάφοροι παράγοντες αβεβαιότητας στη μεταβλητότητα του πετρελαίου. Τους παράγοντες αβεβαιότητας τους κατηγοριοποιούμε ως εξής: στους δείκτες τεκμαρτής μεταβλητότητας, στους δείκτες χρηματοοικονομικής πίεσης και σε λοιπούς δείκτες που σχετίζονται με παγκόσμια αβεβαιότητα. Τα αποτελέσματα της ανάλυσης δείχνουν ότι οι δείκτες αβεβαιότητας προσφέρουν τεράστια προβλεπτική ικανότητα στα υποδείγματα που χρησιμοποιούνται για προβλέψεις της μεταβλητότητας του πετρελαίου σε όλους τους χρονικούς ορίζοντες. Πιο συγκεκριμένα, η ενσωμάτωση των δεικτών αυτών στο μεθοδολογικό πλαίσιο DMA δημιουργεί τις καλύτερες προβλέψεις, οι οποίες αξιολογούνται και από στατιστικής αλλά και οικονομικής οπτικής γωνίας.Οι επενδυτές ενδιαφέρονται εκτός από την μεγιστοποίηση των κερδών και για την ελαχιστοποίηση των απωλειών των χαρτοφυλακίων τους, κάτι το οποίο πετυχαίνουν με μεθόδους αντιστάθμισης. Στο Κεφάλαιο 4, εφαρμόζεται μελέτη, στην οποία αναγνωρίζονται οι κατηγορίες αγορών (π.χ. FX) που παρέχουν τα καλύτερα αποτελέσματα αντιστάθμισης σε ένα χαρτοφυλάκιο μεταβλητότητας πετρελαίου. Τα αποτελέσματα της μελέτης καταλήγουν στην αγορά των U.S. T-Bills ως την πιο αποτελεσματική αναφορικά με την αντιστάθμιση ενός χαρτοφυλακίου μεταβλητότητας πετρελαίου. Τέλος, το Κεφάλαιο 5 εστιάζει στην έρευνα του κατά πόσο η ημερήσια μεταβλητότητα του πετρελαίου έχει προβλεπτική ικανότητα στα υποδείγματα που χρησιμοποιούνται για την βιομηχανική παραγωγή των ΗΠΑ. Πιο συγκεκριμένα, στο Κεφάλαιο 5 προτείνεται ένα MIDAS υπόδειγμα που ενσωματώνει πληροφορία για την μεταβλητότητα του πετρελαίου σε ημερήσια συχνότητα με στόχο τη δημιουργία προβλέψεων διαφόρων υποκατηγοριών της βιομηχανικής παραγωγής των ΗΠΑ. Τα αποτελέσματα δείχνουν ότι η μεταβλητότητα του πετρελαίου που προέρχεται μόνο από τις θετικές μεταβολές των σχετικών τιμών ενισχύει σε μεγάλο βαθμό την προβλεπτική ικανότητα των υποδειγμάτων που χρησιμοποιούνται για δημιουργία προβλέψεων της βιομηχανικής παραγωγής του τομέα ενέργειας
An Interactive Freight-pooling Service for Efficient Last-mile Delivery
No full textThe existing practices of the urban section of freight transport chain result in traffic congestion, air pollution and resources being wasted. We focus on the final stage of freight distribution and propose an interactive freight-pooling service, in an effort to reduce the undesirable effects and the cost of freight transport in urban areas. Our service empowers city and state authorities to orchestrate the distribution network through interactive interfaces. We break the problem into three distinct phases that collectively helps us set constraints related to the quality of service and find inexpensive routes. In this regard, our proposed freight-pooling approach becomes an attractive option for efficient distribution, that guarantees cost minimization without sacrificing the level of quality
Power, Powerlessness and Empowerment in African-American and White Performers' Hip-Hop Rhetoric: A Contrastive Corpus-driven Critical Discourse Analysis.
No full textΗ παρούσα έρευνα βασιζόμενη στη συνεργεία της μελέτης σωμάτων κειμένων με την κριτική ανάλυση λόγου στοχεύει στην παρατήρηση των διαχρονικών μεταβολών του Χιπ Χοπ ως μουσικό είδος εξετάζοντας τους στίχους των τραγουδιών που εμφανίζονται στις λίστες του Billboard με τα πιο επιτυχημένα R&B/Hip Hop τραγούδια από τη δεκαετία του 1960 έως και αυτή του 2010. Ειδικότερα, εξετάζονται οι μεταβολές της ρητορικής που χρησιμοποιούνται μεταξύ των κοινωνικών δρώντων με κριτήριο το φύλο (άνδρες και γυναίκες) και τη φυλή (λευκοί και μαύροι). Η έρευνα εξετάζει τη ρητορική του αμερικανικού Χιπ Χοπ με άμεσο σκοπό την αποκάλυψη ιδεολογικών μοτίβων, ομοιοτήτων και διαφορών στον λόγο των κοινωνικών δρώντων, και συγκεκριμένα, των ίδιων των καλλιτεχνών (αποστολείς – addressors) και των δρώντων στους οποίους εκείνοι αναφέρονται άμεσα (αποστολέας-addressor και (παραλήπτες – addressees). Κύριο αντικείμενο της διατριβής αποτελεί ο εντοπισμός και η εξέταση των επαναλαμβανόμενων γλωσσικών επιλογών των καλλιτεχνών, η εξακρίβωση και κριτική ανάλυση του πλήθους των κρίσιμων χαρακτηριστικών που αφορούν στο φέρουν τα στοιχεία του φύλου και στης φυλής εντός του μουσικού είδους της Χιπ Χοπ, καθώς επίσης και της εξέλιξής τους στο χρόνο. Η ανάλυση προσφέρει μια καθαρότερη και βαθύτερη εικόνα στις ρητορικές αλλαγές όρων, οι οποίοι που έχουν ιδιαίτερο πολιτισμικό και συναισθηματικό φορτίο, καθώς σχετίζονται με κοινωνικό στιγματισμό, είναι πολιτισμικά και συναισθηματικά φορτισμένοι, κατά κύριο λόγο στιγματισμένοι, και είναι αντιπροσωπευτικοί της ανισότητας και των παραδοσιακά ασύμμετρων σχέσεων δύναμης μεταξύ των κοινωνικών δρώντων.The present corpus-driven critical discourse analysis study sets out to observe the rampant transformation of the hip hop genre diachronically, examining all song lyrics from the Billboard R&B/Hip Hop music chart archives from the 1960s to 2010s. It also examines the shifts in rhetoric within gender- (male and female) and race-oriented (black and white) groups. This study charts the rhetoric of US hip hop in order to reveal ideological patterns, similarities or differences between social actors, especially the artists themselves and those directly addressed or referred to by the artists (addressors and addressees, as are categorized here). The main objective of the research is to locate and examine the artists’ recurring linguistic choices, identify and critically account for the full range of significant characteristics of the two features (race and gender) under scrutiny within the genre of hip hop, and also their evolution in time. The analysis affords a deeper insight into the tremendous rhetorical changes of a set of culturally- and emotionally-loaded, mostly stigmatized terms, which are representative of archetypal asymmetric relations between social actors
Essays in bank lending.
No full textThe banking industry plays a critical role in the modern economic world, with lending being one of the most important services rendered by banks and having vital implications for social and economic welfare. Specifically, mortgage lending is crucial in shaping households' living standards while corporate lending has a decisive role in enhancing real economic activity and promoting a country’s economic growth. This Thesis consists of three chapters which study three separate topics in the area of bank lending (mortgage loans and corporate loans).
In Chapter 1, entitled "Lending discrimination across the U.S.: New methodology and the role of the subprime crisis", we examine whether discrimination in mortgage-loan origination and pricing exists, and if so, whether the level of discrimination differ before and after the eruption of the subprime crisis. Using data from 6.5 million loan applications from 2004 through 2013, we propose a novel approach aiming to substantially lower the notorious omitted-variable bias of the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) database and identify the level of racial, ethnic, and gender discrimination in mortgage lending across the United States. In stark contrast with previous studies, we find, on average, very little discrimination in loan origination. Although discrimination increases somewhat after 2007, its probability remains well below 1%. In contrast, we find that white (non-Hispanic) applicants pay a lower spread on the originated loans by 0.37 (0.11) basis points, a result that almost entirely comes from the pre-crisis period.
A key policy to limit the possibility of bank runs is an explicit deposit insurance scheme (DIS), which can be either privately or government-funded. In Chapter 2, entitled "Blessing or curse? Government funding of deposit insurance and corporate lending", we study the effect of government involvement in explicit DIS funding on price and non-price characteristics of loans. Using syndicated loans from 63 countries over 1985-2016, we show that changes in DIS from purely private-funded to either government-funded or jointly-funded increase all-in-drawn spreads by approximately 4.6%, further increase loan fees, decrease loan maturity, and increase the use of performance pricing provisions. Our findings are consistent with the moral hazard problem behind government-funded explicit DIS.
In Chapter 3, entitled "Creditor rights and corporate lending revisited", we challenge the conventional finding that stronger legal protection of creditors improves the terms of corporate loan deals. Using global syndicated loan data from 1986 to 2005, we revisit the effect of creditor rights on corporate loan terms (spread, amount, and maturity). Instead of focusing only on cross-country differences, we also investigate within-country variation in creditor rights index by using country fixed effects and event-study methodologies. In stark contrast with previous findings, we find that the level of creditors’ protection does not significantly affect banks’ decisions on corporate loan terms. Our findings highlight that strengthening creditors’ protection is not necessarily an appropriate mechanism for promoting more competitive lending terms
On-site audits, sanctions, and bank risk-taking: An empirical overture towards a novel regulatory and supervisory philosophy
No full textThis paper investigates the role of banking supervision, measured in terms of enforcement outputs (i.e., on-site audits and sanctions) in containing bank risk-taking. Our results on the direct banking supervision–risk-taking correlation show an inverted U-shaped relationship between on-site audits and bank risk, while the nexus between enforcement actions and risk appears linear and negative. With respect to the combined effect of efficient supervision and banking regulation (in the form of capital and transparency requirements) we find that effective supervision and disclosure prerequisites are important and complementary mechanisms in reducing bank fragility, by contrast to capital requirements which are proven rather futile in controlling bank risk, even when supplemented with a higher volume of on-site audits and enforcement actions
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