1,721,010 research outputs found
Sustainability of Public Finances: The Case of Italy, 1861-2016
No full textAre Italy’s primary-surplus policies compatible with the sustainability of government debt? We address the question by examining historical budget data in post-unification Italy, from 1861 to 2016. Controlling for temporary output, temporary spending and world war-time periods in assessing whether primary surpluses significantly reacted to changes in debt, we find the following results: (i) the hypothesis of nonlinearity in the surplus-debt relationship significantly outperforms the hypothesis of linearity; (ii) there exists a threshold level in the debt-GDP ratio, approximately equal to 105 percent, above which Italian fiscal policy makers are concerned with corrective actions to avoid insolvency; (iii) the robustly positive reaction of primary surpluses to debt beyond the trigger point ensures fiscal sustainability
The Fallacy of the Debt-to-GDP Fiscal Sustainability Indicator
No full textIl volume esamina e valuta la politica di bilancio italiana realizzata nell’anno 2017. Nella prima parte vengono presentati gli impatti macroeconomici e distributivi. Nella seconda parte ci si sofferma sulle conseguenze delle politiche di aggiustamento fiscale. In primo luogo, si analizza se siano più efficaci politiche di aggiustamento dal lato delle entrate, ovvero dal lato delle spese pubbliche. In secondo luogo, si discute come le politiche fiscali attuate tra il 2010 e il 2016 non siano state coerenti con l’obiettivo di favorire la crescita economica di alcuni paesi europei, tra cui l’Italia. Nella terza parte, si indaga il ruolo delle politiche e delle regole europee nell’influenzare i risultati delle politiche fiscali degli stati membri. Nella quarta parte, ci si sofferma sui rilevanti cambiamenti avvenuti negli ultimi anni nell’ambito della struttura della tassazione delle imprese e del ruolo degli incentivi fiscali all’investimento, in particolare in innovazione. Infine, nella quinta parte, si analizzano criticamente sia gli interventi relativi alle politiche sociali attuate attraverso sussidi monetari e agevolazioni fiscali, sia i più recenti provvediment
Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics in Italy
Full text linkWe examine the historical dynamics of government debt in Post-Unification Italy, from 1861 to 2009. Unit root tests for the debt-GDP ratio are unable to reject either the non stationarity or the stationarity null hypothesis. Controlling debt dynamics for fiscal feedback policies of the Barro-Bohn style, however, the debt-GDP ratio is found to be mean-reverting. Mean-reversion in the debt-GDP ratio is due not only to a nominal growth dividend, but also to a positive response of primary surpluses to variations in outstanding debt. There is indeed significant evidence that, over the history of Italy, fiscal policy makers have reacted to the accumulation of debt, taking corrective measures to rule out potential long-term sustainability problems
Inflation shocks and interest rate rules
Full text linkRecent empirical evidence by Fair (2002, 2005) and Giordani (2003) shows that a positive inflation shock with the nominal interest rate held constant has contractionary effects. These results cannot be reconciled with the standard "New Synthe-
sis" literature. This paper reconsiders the effects of inflation shocks in a simple New
Keynesian framework extended to include wealth effects. It is demonstrated that,
following an inflation shock, the decline of output coupled with passive interest rate
rules is not puzzlin
Non-Linear Budgetary Policies: Evidence from 150 Years of Italian Public Finance
Full text linkWe investigate the sustainability of Italy's public finances from 1862 to 2012 adopting a non-linear perspective. Specifically, we employ the smooth transition regression approach to explore the scope for non-linear fiscal adjustments of primary surpluses in response to the accumulation of debt. The empirical results show the occurrence of a significantly positive reaction of primary surpluses to debt when the debt-GDP ratio exceeded the trigger value of 110 percent. The after-threshold positive response implies that the path of Italy's fiscal policy is sufficiently consistent with the intertemporal budget constraint
Debito Pubblico e sostenibilità della politica fiscale in Italia
No full textObiettivo specifico del presente contributo è quello di esaminare la dibattuta questione della sostenibilità di lungo periodo della politica fiscale in Italia. Si tratta di un tema controverso, che ha attratto a più riprese l’interesse degli storici dell’economia e dei policy maker. In questo lavoro ci si propone di analizzare le linee portanti del dibattito, assumendo come ottica privilegiata il riferimento costante alla storia “fiscale” dell’Italia e alle principali teorie economiche interpretative degli eventi
Population dynamics and monetary policy
No full textThis paper shows that in a general equilibrium model with interest-rate feedback rules of the Taylor-type population dynamics give rise to multiple steady states. Under an active monetary policy, real determinacy occurs only around the steady state with zero net financial wealth, where aggregate consumption is equally distributed among agents of different generations. By contrast, in a neighborhood of the steady state displaying a positive stock of financial wealth and intergenerational inequality, real determinacy requires monetary policy to be passive. Changes in the demographic profile of the economy are shown to have relevant implications for the aggregate accumulation of wealth
Monetary Rules and Deficit Shocks
No full textInterest rate rules, Nominal rigidities, Deficit shocks, Wealth effects, E52, E58, E63,
Country-Specific Risk Premium, Taylor Rules, and Exchange Rates
Full text linkThe adoption of a Taylor-type monetary policy rule and an inflation target for emerging market economies that choose a flexible exchange rate regime is often advocated. This paper investigates the issue of exchange rate determination when interest-rate feedback rules are implemented in a continuous-time optimizing model of a small open economy facing an imperfect global capital market. It is demonstrated that when a risk premium on external debt affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the Taylor principle is not a necessary condition for determinacy of equilibrium. On the other hand, it is shown that exchange rate dynamics critically depends on whether monetary policy is active or passive
Assessing budgetary policies: Indicators or tests?
No full textWhether or not budgetary policies are sustainable and can be conducted without creating the potential for government bankruptcy is a central question for macroeconomic analysis. In this paper, we show that indicators and tests to assess government solvency should not be used alternatively. We lay out a simple and intuitive procedure to integrate simultaneously the results from the two approaches to fiscal sustainability. Indicators are forward looking, for they are based on published forecasts, thus reacting to a set of current and expected future conditions in fiscal-policy making. Tests, by contrast, are backward looking, for they are based on a sample of past data. In the event of conflicting results, indicators may signal the occurrence of a structural change in policy, which may reverse the predictions of tests. Whether the results from indicators or from tests should be given priority in the assessment of the sustainability of public debt will thus depend on the structural stability of the historical data generating process of the primary surplus. Only in the absence of a structural break in the stance of fiscal policy, the potential warning predictions of fiscal indicators should be interpreted as merely reflecting transitory factors to be eventually reversed. An application to U.S. post-World War II historical data, from 1948 to 2016, and forecasts, from 2017 to 2027, demonstrates the empirical relevance of the proposed comprehensive approach and helps add new insights to the evaluation of the U.S. fiscal position. In particular, our results suggest that the potentially unsustainable course of U.S. fiscal policy from 2008 onwards, advocated by the use of fiscal indicators, reflects systematic—not cyclical—factors. The main policy implication is that deficit increases in the U.S. from 2008 onwards cannot be regarded as a transitory phenomenon and hence do entail an urgent need for a structural change in the future stance of budgetary policy
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