1,721,019 research outputs found
The impact of agribusiness crimes on food prices: evidence from Italy
Full text linkFrom the 1990s the Italian agribusiness sector is increasingly threatened by a new and dangerous phenomenon: organized crime in the agribusiness sector. The so-called “Agromafia” imposes its control throughout the whole agricultural supply chain, from production to retail, passing through the processing industry, transports and large-scale distribution. In this paper we examine the relationship between eco-crimes and consumer food and non-alcoholic drinks price index for the 20 Italian regions and 80 Italian provinces in the 1998–2016 period. At regional level, as a proxy for the Agromafia’s activities, we build an ad hoc eco-criminal index for every region using data annually elaborated from Legambiente. At province level, as a proxy for Agromafia’s activities, we use eight specific variables: extortions, counterfeiting, contraband, forest fires, all types of fires, money laundering, suspicious money transfers, and an ad hoc eco-criminal index. The analysis shows that the Agromafia can consistently affect the whole agribusiness sector, causing an increase in food prices, especially in south of the country. The ten most affected provinces by phenomenon register a food consumer price index about 12% higher than the least ten affected provinces. By the contrast, in the center-north of Italy money laundering seems to reduce food consumer prices through the reinvestment of illicit proceeds in firms with strong cost advantages
Comparison of ARIMA, ETS, NNAR, TBATS and hybrid models to forecast the second wave of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Italy
No full textThe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a severe, ongoing, novel pandemic that emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of January 21, 2021, the virus had infected approximately 100 million people, causing over 2 million deaths. This article analyzed several time series forecasting methods to predict the spread of COVID-19 during the pandemic’s second wave in Italy (the period after October 13, 2020). The autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing (ETS), the neural network autoregression (NNAR) model, the trigonometric exponential smoothing state space model with Box–Cox transformation, ARMA errors, and trend and seasonal components (TBATS), and all of their feasible hybrid combinations were employed to forecast the number of patients hospitalized with mild symptoms and the number of patients hospitalized in the intensive care units (ICU). The data for the period February 21, 2020–October 13, 2020 were extracted from the website of the Italian Ministry of Health (www.salute.gov.it). The results showed that (i) hybrid models were better at capturing the linear, nonlinear, and seasonal pandemic patterns, significantly outperforming the respective single models for both time series, and (ii) the numbers of COVID-19-related hospitalizations of patients with mild symptoms and in the ICU were projected to increase rapidly from October 2020 to mid-November 2020. According to the estimations, the necessary ordinary and intensive care beds were expected to double in 10 days and to triple in approximately 20 days. These predictions were consistent with the observed trend, demonstrating that hybrid models may facilitate public health authorities’ decision-making, especially in the short-term
The relationship between renewable energy production and CO2 emissions in 27 OECD countries: A panel cointegration and Granger non-causality approach
No full textHuman-caused CO2 emissions are the primary cause of global warming. In this regard, determining the most effective approach for lowering CO2 emissions and the collateral risk of catastrophic natural disasters is crucial. This study examines the long-run relationship between disaggregated renewable energy production and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita for a panel of 27 OECD countries from 1965 to 2020. The panel-autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models of the pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG), and dynamic fixed effect (DFE) were used to evaluate the relationship between CO2 emissions and energy production from biofuel, aggregated geothermal and biomass (GEOB), hydropower, nuclear, solar, and wind. As robustness checks, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) estimators were used. Then, using a generalized method of moment (GMM) framework for panel vector autoregression (PVAR), the Granger non-causality between CO2 emissions and renewable energy production was investigated. GEOB, hydropower, nuclear, solar, and wind were found to be negatively and significantly correlated with CO2 emissions. GEOB, hydropower, and solar were the most effective renewable resources in reducing CO2 emissions. Granger non-causality approach showed unidirectional causation from hydropower, solar, and wind to CO2 emissions, bidirectional causation between CO2, and biofuel and GEOB, and unidirectional causation from CO2 emissions to nuclear. The findings were consistent across different model specifications and suggested a faster transition to GEOB, hydropower, and solar energy in OECD countries to reduce CO2 emissions and enhance environmental sustainability
La postergazione dei finanziamenti ascendenti infragruppo
Full text linkI finanziamenti ascendenti infragruppo non sono soggetti al regime di postergazione previsto dal combinato disposto degli artt. 2497-quinquies e 2467 c.c. in quanto eseguiti al di fuori dell'esercizio, anche solo indiretto, del potere di direzione e coordinamento. La società finanziatrice eterodiretta è priva di posizioni di potere nei confronti della controllante in forza delle quali influenzarne stabilmente le scelte strategiche ed acquisire informazioni diffenziali, non ricorrendo, pertanto, nella fattispecie il pericolo di distorsione delle scelte imprenditoriali che, in presenza di una fattispecie di controllo, il menzionato regime della postergazione si propone di prevenire. Inoltre, l'assoggettamento del finanziamento della controllante alla controllata, penalizzando i soci ed i creditori di quest'ultima a discapito di quelli della prima, si porrebbe in contrasto con i principi ed i criteri di tutela cui l'ordinamento ha orientato la disciplina dei gruppi di società
La tutela della rinomanza delle denominazioni di origine protette
No full textLe modifiche apportate dall'art. 16 del D. Lgs. 131/2010 al testo dell'art. 30 del codice della proprietà industriale hanno esteso l'ambito di tutela delle denominazioni di origine e delle indicazioni geografiche al divieto di indebito sfruttamento della loro reputazione. La formulazione aperta ed elastica della norma impone all'interprete l'onere di ricostruire la nuova fattispecie in maniera coerente con le caratteristiche sistematiche e funzionali del regime giuridico dei segni geografici, rifiutando rinvii acritici ed aprioristici alla disciplina del marchio d'impresa ed alle opzioni ermeneutiche ivi generalmente condivise. In tale prospettiva, appurato come le vigenti disposizioni nazionali non autorizzino l'affermazione di una astratta ed autonoma tutelabilità del valore suggestivo del toponimo in sè, va escluso che l'impiego del nome geografico registrato da parte di soggetto non legittimato integri un abusivo sfruttamento della relativa fama ogni qualvolta tale impiego concerna prodotti appartenenti a classi merceologiche differenti, volti a soddisfare bisogni eterogenei e privi di nessi carattere tecnico, produttivo e commerciale con la produzione tipica oggetto di protezione. Costituisce, invece, indebito sfruttamento della reputazione dell'altrui denominazione l'utilizzo del segno tipico che, in virtù di un agganciamento qualificato con le specifiche proprietà reputazionali che il singolo segno è deputato a significare, sia tale da ingenerare nel pubblico un apprezzabile affidamento circa la riconducibilità dell'impiego alla denominazione tutelata e sia, comunque, tale da interferire con la funzione di qualificazione alla stessa assegnata dall'ordinamen-t
Prime riflessioni in margine alla nuova potestà legislativa regionale in materia bancaria
No full textUsing the SARIMA Model to Forecast the Fourth Global Wave of Cumulative Deaths from COVID-19: Evidence from 12 Hard-Hit Big Countries
Full text linkThe COVID-19 pandemic is a serious threat to all of us. It has caused an unprecedented shock to the world’s economy, and it has interrupted the lives and livelihood of millions of people. In the last two years, a large body of literature has attempted to forecast the main dimensions of the COVID-19 outbreak using a wide set of models. In this paper, I forecast the short- to mid-term cumulative deaths from COVID-19 in 12 hard-hit big countries around the world as of 20 August 2021. The data used in the analysis were extracted from the Our World in Data COVID-19 dataset. Both non-seasonal and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA and SARIMA) were estimated. The analysis showed that: (i) ARIMA/SARIMA forecasts were sufficiently accurate in both the training and test set by always outperforming the simple alternative forecasting techniques chosen as benchmarks (Mean, Naïve, and Seasonal Naïve); (ii) SARIMA models outperformed ARIMA models in 46 out 48 metrics (in forecasting future values), i.e., on 95.8% of all the considered forecast accuracy measures (mean absolute error [MAE], mean absolute percentage error [MAPE], mean absolute scaled error [MASE], and the root mean squared error [RMSE]), suggesting a clear seasonal pattern in the data; and (iii) the forecasted values from SARIMA models fitted very well the observed (real-time) data for the period 21 August 2021–19 September 2021 for almost all the countries analyzed. This article shows that SARIMA can be safely used for both the short- and medium-term predictions of COVID-19 deaths. Thus, this approach can help government authorities to monitor and manage the huge pressure that COVID-19 is exerting on national healthcare systems
O acesso dos administradores "não executivos" às informações sociais no ordenamento jurídico italiano
Full text linkIl potere dei consiglieri di amministrazione di società per azioni che siano sprovvisti di deleghe di acquisire informazioni sulla gestione sociale deve essere ben circoscritto. Esso si limita alla potestà di esigere che gli organi delegati comunichino al consiglio ogni dato la cui acquisizione sia necessaria ai fini del controllo dell’operato degli amministratori esecutivi ed alla consapevole compartecipazione di tutti i consiglieri alle decisioni gestorie assunte collegialmente. In assenza di una specifica attribuzione statutaria, invece, gli amministratori non esecutivi risultano privi di poteri di indagine individuali in forza dei quali ricercare le informazioni mediante la conduzione di autonome ispezioni negli uffici della società, la consultazione diretta di atti e documenti sociali e/o l’interrogazione personale di dipendenti e collaboratori aziendali. L’esercizio di poteri istruttorî tanto estesi e discrezionali non appare, infatti, coerente con il ruolo che il nuovo statuto dell’informazione consiliare introdotto dal legislatore italiano ha inteso assegnare ai consiglieri non esecutivi. E, più in generale, contrasta con la rigorosa delimitazione dei doveri di vigilanza e controllo dei consiglieri sull’operato degli organi delegati che, per specifica scelta legislativa, contraddistingue il rinnovato assetto dell’organo amministrativo della società azionaria italiana.The power of non-executive director to acquire information on the company management must be well-defined. It is limited to the power to require that the executive directors communicate to the board of directors any data, which is necessary for monitoring the activities of the executive directors and of the management, and for the conscious sharing of all the managing decisions taken together. Unless otherwise provided by the articles of the company, however, the non-executive board members have no powers of investigation under which searching for information by conducting independent inspections in the offices of the company and/or by querying staff of employees and business associates. Exercising such extensive and discretionary powers of investigations does not appear to be consistent with the role that the new regulations of the company information system introduced by the Italian legislature intended to assign to the non-executive directors. In addition, more generally, it contrasts with the strict definition of the duties of supervision and control of the external directors over the company management that, for specific legislative choice, marks the renovated structure of the Italian companie
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