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Regionali 2015: il PD non è più invincibile, il centrodestra risorge attorno alla Lega, mentre il M5S si consolida
No full textChallenger’s delight: The results of the 2018 Italian general election
No full textThe results of the 2018 general election were shocking. Although main competitors were the same as in 2013 (the centre-right coalition, the centre-left coalition, and the M5S), high uncertainty surrounded the electoral outcome because of the application of a new electoral system, and polls data indicating the competitiveness of the multiple political formations and the high number of undecided voters.
For the first time in Western European history, a successful debutant was able not to lose votes in the following election – the 2013 M5S was actually the most successful debutant in Western Europe since the end of WW, and it gained over 7 percentage points, coming just short to one third of the votes. At the same time, the LN reached its best results in history, with 17.3% of the national votes. Thus, these two challenger parties combined received over 50% of Italian votes, while the two former big parties, national wings of the major EP party families, both saw their historical lows, summing to less than a third of the votes. The election resulted in a hung Parliament. The centre-right coalition was first, but far from a majority of seats. The M5S was the most-voted party, finishing second, closed behind the centre-right. The centre-left was outdistanced.
In this article we describe and discuss the 2018 electoral results and its strange, largely unexpected outcome. More specifically we look at the voter turnout and the results of the vote, both at the overall national level and with their geographical articulations, comparing and contrasting them with Italian electoral history – and 2013 results in particular. Finally, we conclude by analysing survey data and vote shifts between 2013 and 2018, to assess the electoral dynamics generating the described results
Referendum costituzionale 2016: il fallimento dell'agenda Renzi
Get PDFIl 4 dicembre si è svolto il cruciale referendum confermativo sulla riforma costituzionale Renzi-Boschi cui il capo dell’esecutivo aveva indissolubilmente legato la propria esperienza di governo. Come noto, l’esito elettorale è stato davvero netto. Sostanzialmente un 60 a 40 per respingere la riforma costituzionale. Le conseguenze politiche immediate di questo sono ormai storia, con le dimissioni del governo Renzi e la nascita dell’esecutivo guidato da Gentiloni. In questo articolo analizziamo in profondità i risultati elettorali registrati il 4 dicembre, inserendoli nel contesto politico della legislatura in corso e tentando di spiegare come questi si siano venuti determinando
Primo turno a Messina: la dispersione del M5S, il crollo del PD e la (parziale) tenuta del centrodestra
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Primo turno a Messina: la dispersione del M5S, il crollo del PD e la (parziale) tenuta del centrodestra
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Il mandato del 4 marzo. Dietro vittorie e sconfitte, la domanda di affrontare vecchi problemi e nuovi conflitti
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Replication Data for: ‘Are we losing touch?’ Mainstream parties’ failure to represent their voters on immigration and its electoral consequences
No full textIn many advanced democracies, mainstream political parties have been disrupted either by the rise of new (populist) parties or by hostile takeovers. In this article we argue that immigration attitudes have had a powerful impact on the strategic environment of political parties and leaders. We show, based on evidence from a comparative study conducted by YouGov in spring of 2015, that immigration attitudes had, by that time, driven a wedge between mainstream parties – those that regularly play a role in government – and their partisans. This ‘immigration gap’ opened up enormous space for new political movements to form, either inside existing parties or outside. Furthermore, we show that the representation gap on immigration issues is a relevant predictor of vote choice, so that parties are particularly likely to lose votes when they are more distant from their supporters on immigration
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