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NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020
Get PDFThis open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda
NL ARMS Netherlands annual review of military studies 2020: deterrence in the 21st Century—insights from theory and practice
Get PDFSecurity and Global Affair
Winning Without Killing: The Strategic and Operational Utility of Non-Kinetic Capabilities in Crises
No full textInternational conflict resolution increasingly involves the use of non-military power and non-kinetic capabilities alongside military capabilities in the face of hybrid threats. In this book, counter-measures to those threats are addressed by academics with both practical and theoretical experience and knowledge, providing strategic and operational insights into non-kinetic conflict resolution and on the use of power to influence, affect, deter or coerce states and non-state actors.
This volume in the NL ARMS series deals with the non-kinetic capabilities to address international crises and conflicts and as always views matters from a global perspective. Included are chapters on the promise, practice and challenges of non-kinetic instruments of power, the instrumentality of soft power, information as a power instrument and manoeuvring in the information environment, Russia's use of deception and misinformation in conflict, applying counter-marketing techniques to fight ISIL, using statistics to profile terrorists, and employing tools such as Actor and Audience Analysis. Such diverse subjects as lawfare, the Law of Armed Conflict rules for non-kinetic cyber attacks, navigation warfare, GPS-spoofing, maritime interception operations, and finally, as a prerequisite, innovative ways for intelligence collection in UN Peacekeeping in Mali come up for discussion
Deterrence in Peace Operations: Look Beyond the Battlefield and Expand the Number of Targets and Influence Mechanisms
No full textThe peace operations literature suffers from a narrow focus on battlefield deterrence. It ignores the need to deter actors beyond the battlefield from supporting the combatants using force, and analyses the use of military threats and force in peace operations in a vacuum without taking into account the other instruments that deterring actors employ simultaneously to influence the combatants, combatant allies, combatant supporters and bystanders that undermine deterrence in peace operations. Since most peace operation forces lack the capacity and willingness to threaten and use force in accordance with the requirements stipulated by rational deterrence theory, influencing actors beyond the battlefield is more important with respect to deterring violence than the military efforts undertaken by peace operation forces to deter combatants from using force or to compel them to stop doing so. Accordingly, this chapter develops a new analytical framework that will enable peace operation theorists and practitioners to target all the actors that undermine deterrence on the battlefield and beyond with all the tools at their disposal---persuasion, inducement and coercion. The framework will improve both theory and practice by providing a better understanding of the conditions under which peace operations can contribute to deterring and, if need be, compelling combatants from using force as well as identifying the tools that practitioners can employ to this end. It highlights that peace operations merely constitute the top of the deterrence iceberg, and that peace operation forces must be supported by other actors and tools to succeed with respect to deterring violence and facilitating conflict resolution.The peace operations literature suffers from a narrow focus on battlefield deterrence. It ignores the need to deter actors beyond the battlefield from supporting the combatants using force, and analyses the use of military threats and force in peace operations in a vacuum without taking into account the other instruments that deterring actors employ simultaneously to influence the combatants, combatant allies, combatant supporters and bystanders that undermine deterrence in peace operations. Since most peace operation forces lack the capacity and willingness to threaten and use force in accordance with the requirements stipulated by rational deterrence theory, influencing actors beyond the battlefield is more important with respect to deterring violence than the military efforts undertaken by peace operation forces to deter combatants from using force or to compel them to stop doing so. Accordingly, this chapter develops a new analytical framework that will enable peace operation theorists and practitioners to target all the actors that undermine deterrence on the battlefield and beyond with all the tools at their disposal—persuasion, inducement and coercion. The framework will improve both theory and practice by providing a better understanding of the conditions under which peace operations can contribute to deterring and, if need be, compelling combatants from using force as well as identifying the tools that practitioners can employ to this end. It highlights that peace operations merely constitute the top of the deterrence iceberg, and that peace operation forces must be supported by other actors and tools to succeed with respect to deterring violence and facilitating conflict resolution
Profiling terrorists -- Using statistics to fight terrorism
No full textInternational conflict resolution increasingly involves the use of non-military power and non-kinetic capabilities alongside military capabilities in the face of hybrid threats. In this book, counter-measures to those threats are addressed by academics with both practical and theoretical experience and knowledge, providing strategic and operational insights into non-kinetic conflict resolution and on the use of power to influence, affect, deter or coerce states and non-state actors.This volume in the NL ARMS series deals with the non-kinetic capabilities to address international crises and conflicts and as always views matters from a global perspective.Included are chapters on the promise, practice and challenges of non-kinetic instruments of power, the instrumentality of soft power, information as a power instrument and manoeuvring in the information environment, Russia's use of deception and misinformation in conflict, applying counter-marketing techniques to fight ISIL, using statistics to profile terrorists, and employing tools such as Actor and Audience Analysis. Such diverse subjects as lawfare, the Law of Armed Conflict rules for non-kinetic cyberattacks, navigation warfare, GPS-spoofing, maritime interception operations, and finally, as a prerequisite, innovative ways for intelligence collection in UN Peacekeeping in Mali come up for discussion.The book will provide both professionals such as (foreign) policy makers and those active in the military services, academics at a master level and those with an interest in military law and the law of armed conflict with useful and up-to-date insights into the wide range of subjects that are contained within it. Paul A.L. Ducheine and Frans P.B. Osinga are General Officers and full professors at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda, The Netherland
Becoming a good ally:Slovak defence planning since independence
Get PDFJoining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been a key foreign policy goal for Slovakia since independence. An enormous amount of political capital has been invested in this goal since the early 1990s. Relatedly, the Slovak armed forces underwent a fundamental transformation, which was however limited by the budgetary constraints and path dependencies created by decades of communist military planning. In this chapter, the author tracks defence planning in Slovakia since independence, focusing on which key military challenges were identified, what capabilities were chosen to address them (and why) and how the inclusion in NATO affected the definition of these key military challenges.</p
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
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