5 research outputs found
Climate Prediction of El Niño Malaria Epidemics in North-West Tanzania.
No full textMalaria is a significant public health problem in Tanzania. Approximately 16 million malaria cases are reported every year and 100,000 to 125,000 deaths occur. Although most of Tanzania is endemic to malaria, epidemics occur in the highlands, notably in Kagera, a region that was subject to widespread malaria epidemics in 1997 and 1998. This study examined the relationship between climate and malaria incidence in Kagera with the aim of determining whether seasonal forecasts may assist in predicting malaria epidemics. A regression analysis was performed on retrospective malaria and climatic data during each of the two annual malaria seasons to determine the climatic factors influencing malaria incidence. The ability of the DEMETER seasonal forecasting system in predicting the climatic anomalies associated with malaria epidemics was then assessed for each malaria season. It was found that malaria incidence is positively correlated with rainfall during the first season (Oct-Mar) (R-squared = 0.73, p < 0.01). For the second season (Apr-Sep), high malaria incidence was associated with increased rainfall, but also with high maximum temperature during the first rainy season (multiple R-squared = 0.79, p < 0.01). The robustness of these statistical models was tested by excluding the two epidemic years from the regression analysis. DEMETER would have been unable to predict the heavy El Niño rains associated with the 1998 epidemic. Nevertheless, this epidemic could still have been predicted using the temperature forecasts alone. The 1997 epidemic could have been predicted from observed temperatures in the preceding season, but the consideration of the rainfall forecasts would have improved the temperature-only forecasts over the remaining years. These results demonstrate the potential of a seasonal forecasting system in the development of a malaria early warning system in Kagera region
Epidemiology of Subpatent Plasmodium Falciparum Infection: Implications for Detection of Hotspots with Imperfect Diagnostics.
No full textAt the local level, malaria transmission clusters in hotspots, which may be a group of households that experience higher than average exposure to infectious mosquitoes. Active case detection often relying on rapid diagnostic tests for mass screen and treat campaigns has been proposed as a method to detect and treat individuals in hotspots. Data from a cross-sectional survey conducted in north-western Tanzania were used to examine the spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum and the relationship between household exposure and parasite density. Dried blood spots were collected from consenting individuals from four villages during a survey conducted in 2010. These were analysed by PCR for the presence of P. falciparum, with the parasite density of positive samples being estimated by quantitative PCR. Household exposure was estimated using the distance-weighted PCR prevalence of infection. Parasite density simulations were used to estimate the proportion of infections that would be treated using a screen and treat approach with rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) compared to targeted mass drug administration (tMDA) and Mass Drug Administration (MDA). Polymerase chain reaction PCR analysis revealed that of the 3,057 blood samples analysed, 1,078 were positive. Mean distance-weighted PCR prevalence per household was 34.5%. Parasite density was negatively associated with transmission intensity with the odds of an infection being subpatent increasing with household exposure (OR 1.09 per 1% increase in exposure). Parasite density was also related to age, being highest in children five to ten years old and lowest in those > 40 years. Simulations of different tMDA strategies showed that treating all individuals in households where RDT prevalence was above 20% increased the number of infections that would have been treated from 43 to 55%. However, even with this strategy, 45% of infections remained untreated. The negative relationship between household exposure and parasite density suggests that DNA-based detection of parasites is needed to provide adequate sensitivity in hotspots. Targeting MDA only to households with RDT-positive individuals may allow a larger fraction of infections to be treated. These results suggest that community-wide MDA, instead of screen and treat strategies, may be needed to successfully treat the asymptomatic, subpatent parasite reservoir and reduce transmission in similar settings
Spatial and temporal variation in malaria transmission in a low endemicity area in northern Tanzania.
No full textBACKGROUND: Spatial and longitudinal monitoring of transmission intensity will allow better targeting of malaria interventions. In this study, data on meteorological, demographic, entomological and parasitological data over the course of a year was collected to describe malaria epidemiology in a single village of low transmission intensity. METHODS: Entomological monitoring of malaria vectors was performed by weekly light trap catches in 10 houses. Each house in the village of Msitu wa Tembo, Lower Moshi, was mapped and censused. Malaria cases identified through passive case detection at the local health centre were mapped by residence using GIS software and the incidence of cases by season and distance to the main breeding site was calculated. RESULTS: The principle vector was Anopheles arabiensis and peak mosquito numbers followed peaks in recent rainfall. The entomological inoculation rate estimated was 3.4 (95% CI 0.7-9.9) infectious bites per person per year. The majority of malaria cases (85/130) occurred during the rainy season (chi2 = 62,3, p < 0.001). Living further away from the river (OR 0.96, CI 0.92-0.998, p = 0.04 every 50 m) and use of anti-insect window screens (OR 0.65, CI 0.44-0.94, p = 0.023) were independent protective factors for the risk of malaria infection. Children aged 1-5 years and 5-15 years were at greater risk of clinical episodes (OR 2.36, CI 1.41-3.97, p = 0.001 and OR 3.68, CI 2.42-5.61, p < 0.001 respectively). CONCLUSION: These data show that local malaria transmission is restricted to the rainy season and strongly associated with proximity to the river. Transmission reducing interventions should, therefore, be timed before the rain-associated increase in mosquito numbers and target households located near the river
Submicroscopic gametocytes and the transmission of antifolate-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in Western Kenya.
No full textBACKGROUND: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the dhfr and dhps genes are associated with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) treatment failure and gametocyte carriage. This may result in enhanced transmission of mutant malaria parasites, as previously shown for chloroquine resistant parasites. In the present study, we determine the association between parasite mutations, submicroscopic P. falciparum gametocytemia and malaria transmission to mosquitoes. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Samples from children treated with SP alone or in combination with artesunate (AS) or amodiaquine were genotyped for SNPs in the dhfr and dhps genes. Gametocytemia was determined by microscopy and Pfs25 RNA-based quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (Pfs25 QT-NASBA). Transmission was determined by membrane-feeding assays. We observed no wild type infections, 66.5% (127/191) of the infections expressed mutations at all three dhfr codons prior to treatment. The presence of all three mutations was not related to higher Pfs25 QT-NASBA gametocyte prevalence or density during follow-up, compared to double mutant infections. The proportion of infected mosquitoes or oocyst burden was also not related to the number of mutations. Addition of AS to SP reduced gametocytemia and malaria transmission during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In our study population where all infections had at least a double mutation in the dhfr gene, additional mutations were not related to increased submicroscopic gametocytemia or enhanced malaria transmission. The absence of wild-type infections is likely to have reduced our power to detect differences. Our data further support the use of ACT to reduce the transmission of drug-resistant malaria parasites
The Atlas3D Project - XXX. Star formation histories and stellar population scaling relations of early-type galaxies
No full textMC acknowledges support from a Royal Society University Research Fellowship. This work was supported by the rolling grants ‘Astrophysics at Oxford’ PP/E001114/1 and ST/H002456/1 and visitor grants PPA/V/S/2002/00553, PP/E001564/1, and ST/H504862/1 from the UK Research Councils. RLD acknowledges travel and computer grants from Christ Church, Oxford and support from the Royal Society in the form of a Wolfson Merit Award 502011.K502/jd. TN acknowledges support from the DFG Cluster of Excellence Origin and Structure of the Universe. MS acknowledges support from an STFC Advanced Fellowship ST/F009186/1. TAD acknowledges the support provided by an ESO fellowship. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (/FP7/2007-2013/) under grant agreement No. 229517. The authors acknowledge financial support from ESO. SK acknowledges support from the Royal Society Joint Projects Grant JP0869822. NS acknowledges support of Australian Research Council grant DP110103509We present the stellar population content of early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D survey. Using spectra integrated within apertures covering up to one effective radius, we apply two methods: one based on measuring line-strength indices and applying single stellar population (SSP) models to derive SSP-equivalent values of stellar age, metallicity, and alpha enhancement; and one based on spectral fitting to derive non-parametric star formation histories, mass-weighted average values of age, metallicity, and half-mass formation time-scales. Using homogeneously derived effective radii and dynamically determined galaxy masses, we present the distribution of stellar population parameters on the Mass Plane (MJAM, σe, Rmaje), showing that at fixed mass, compact early-type galaxies are on average older, more metal-rich, and more alpha-enhanced than their larger counterparts. From non-parametric star formation histories, we find that the duration of star formation is systematically more extended in lower mass objects. Assuming that our sample represents most of the stellar content of today's local Universe, approximately 50 per cent of all stars formed within the first 2 Gyr following the big bang. Most of these stars reside today in the most massive galaxies (>1010.5 M⊙), which themselves formed 90 per cent of their stars by z ∼ 2. The lower mass objects, in contrast, have formed barely half their stars in this time interval. Stellar population properties are independent of environment over two orders of magnitude in local density, varying only with galaxy mass. In the highest density regions of our volume (dominated by the Virgo cluster), galaxies are older, alpha-enhanced, and have shorter star formation histories with respect to lower density regions.Peer reviewe
