893 research outputs found
Data associated with Cope et al. 2018 'Characterising seasonal influenza epidemiology using primary care surveillance data'
No full textThis file contains the necessary data, and computational code, associated with the manuscript:Robert C. Cope, Joshua V. Ross, Monique Chilver, Nigel P. Stocks and Lewis Mitchell. (2018) Characterising seasonal influenza epidemiology using primary care surveillance data. PLoS Computational Biology.Please see the manuscript for details.</div
The precautionary demand for commodity stocks
No full textThis paper develops a theory of the precautionary demand for commodity stocks. It suggests that commodity stocks are held for precautionary purposes by producers, consumers, and intermediate processors, while speculators hold stocks on the expectation of capital gains from a subsequent price rise. Producer and consumer stocks usually account for the largest share of commercial stocks held at any point in time. For example, at the end of 1990, stocks held by producers and consumers of copper were 72 percent of all commercial stocks of the market economy countries. Yet, the theory explaining the behavior of this class of stocks has not progressed much beyond the concept of convenience yield, first introduced by Kaldor (1939). This paper proposes an alternative theory. Holding of stocks by producers and consumers is viewed as precautionary behavior towards output and price risks. As a theory of behavior towards risks, the precautionary stock demand model encompasses speculative demand by both producers and consumers. Furthermore, both stocks and futures are treated as precautionary instruments, in contrast to the dichotomy that only stocks provide convenience yield while futures are hedging instruments.Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Non Bank Financial Institutions
Stochastic resonance in electrical circuits—II: Nonconventional stochastic resonance.
No full textStochastic resonance (SR), in which a periodic signal in a nonlinear system can be amplified by added noise, is discussed. The application of circuit modeling techniques to the conventional form of SR, which occurs in static bistable potentials, was considered in a companion paper. Here, the investigation of nonconventional forms of SR in part using similar electronic techniques is described. In the small-signal limit, the results are well described in terms of linear response theory. Some other phenomena of topical interest, closely related to SR, are also treate
Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine in Australia, 2015: an epidemiological, antigenic and phylogenetic assessment
No full textAbstract not availableJames E. Fielding, Avram Levy, Monique B. Chilver, Yi-Mo Deng, Annette K. Regan, Kristina A. Grant, Nigel P. Stocks, Sheena G. Sulliva
A Buffer Stocks Model for Stabilizing Price in Duopoly-Like Market
No full textThis paper presents the staple-food distribution problem in agro-industry. There is a great difference
of staple-food supplies in the harvest-season and in the planting-season meanwhile the demand is relatively
constant. This situation will trigger price-volatility and shortage of staple-food, and it causes opportunity-losses for the stakeholders (producer, consumer, wholesaler/trader, and the government). For stabilizing the
price, the government has several stabilization policies; one of them is market-intervention policy by using
buffer-stocks schemes. The market-intervention policy should be utilized for improving producer’s profit, for
cutting consumer’s expenditure, and for sustaining wholesaler’s margin-profit by implementing price-support
and price-stabilization. In duopoly-like market, we assume that there are only two market-players in the
distribution system. The objective of this research is to determine the instruments for operating Market-Intervention Program which consist of the quantity, time, and price of the buffer-stocks schemes. The problem
was solved using 3 approaches. First, a comparative cost/benefit analysis between free-market and
intervention-market can be used to formulate the objective function of each stakeholders. Second, the
integration of optimization model and econometrics model were use to develop the decision-variables subject
to the expectation of stakeholders, the buffer-stocks requirement, and the dynamics price equilibrium
properties. Third, model market with Inventory was applied for solving the market-price equilibrium. The
result could be used to analyze such the staple-food distribution system, incorporating the configuration of
duo-producers, duo market-buyers, and duo-consumers.
Keywords: buffer-stocks, duopoly-like market, market-intervention program, model market with inventory,
and staple-food distribution system
Stochastic resonance in electrical circuits—I: Conventional stochastic resonance.
No full textStochastic resonance (SR), a phenomenon in which a periodic signal in a nonlinear system can be amplified by added noise, is introduced and discussed. Techniques for investigating SR using electronic circuits are described in practical terms. The physical nature of SR, and the explanation of weak-noise SR as a linear response phenomenon, are considered. Conventional SR, for systems characterized by static bistable potentials, is described together with examples of the data obtainable from the circuit models used to test the theory
Seminars may increase recruitment to randomised controlled trials: lessons learned from WISDOM
No full textBackground: Recruiting patients to large randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in the primary care setting can be challenging. Research teams need to identify and utilise strategies that both maximise the efficiency of recruitment and minimise the burden on general practitioners. Purpose: To describe our methods for identifying, approaching and recruiting female patients aged 50–69 years to a long-term double-blind RCT of hormone therapy (HT) – the Women's International Study of long Duration Oestrogen after Menopause (WISDOM). The effectiveness of conducting group seminars with patients prior to one-to-one screening is discussed. Methods: Female patients aged between 50 and 69 years were sent letters from participating general practitioners in Adelaide inviting them to participate in WISDOM and attend an initial seminar providing information about HT and the trial prior to a screening interview with a trial nurse. Recruitment rates for those who did or did not attend group seminars were compared. Results: Women who attended a group seminar conducted by the research team were twice as likely to attend an initial screening visit and enrol to participate in WISDOM than women who did not attend a seminar (p < 0.001). In addition, it was estimated that the time required to randomise a woman in the trial, and the number and duration of telephone calls to screen out uninterested women, was reduced for the seminar group. Conclusion: Conducting group seminars with potential participants may be a useful strategy for maximising recruitment from general practice, by increasing patient information and reducing a research team's workload.Bronwen J. Paine, Nigel P. Stocks and Alastair H. MacLenna
Patient acceptance and perceived utility of pre-consultation prevention summaries and reminders in general practice: pilot study
No full textExtent: 8p.BACKGROUND: Patients attending general practices receive only about sixty per cent of the preventive services that are indicated for them. This pilot study explores patient acceptability and perceived utility of automatically generated prevention summary and reminder sheets provided to patients immediately before consultations with their general practitioners. METHODS: Adult patients attending a general practitioner in a practice in Adelaide and a general practitioner in a practice in Melbourne, Australia for consultations in January and February 2009 received automatically-generated prevention summary and reminder sheets that highlighted indicated preventive activities that were due to be performed, and that encouraged the patient to discuss these with the general practitioner in the consultation. Patients completed a post-consultation questionnaire and were interviewed about their experience of receiving the sheets. RESULTS: Sixty patients, median age 53 years (interquartile range 40-74) years, and 58% female, were recruited. Seventy eight per cent of patients found the sheets clear and easy to understand, 75% found them very or quite useful, 72% reported they had addressed with their general practitioner all of the preventive activities that were listed on the sheets as being due to be performed. A further 13% indicated that they had addressed most or some of the activities. 78% of patients said that they would like to keep receiving the sheets. Themes emerging from interviews with patients included: patient knowledge was enhanced; patient conceptions of health and the GP consultation were broadened; the consultation was enhanced; patient pro-activity was encouraged; patients were encouraged to plan their health care; the intervention was suitable for a variety of patients. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients reported that they found the prevention summary and reminder sheets acceptable and useful. The actual increase in performance of preventive activities that may result from this new intervention needs to be tested in randomised controlled trials.Oliver R. Frank, Nigel P. Stocks and Paul Aylwar
Chocolate and blood pressure: Chocolate dose may be too much
No full textKarin Ried, Oliver R Frank and Nigel P Stock
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